Wouldn’t be surprised if Trump takes close to 12-15% of the black vote, and something like a third of the Hispanic vote.
Also keep in mind that all the fake polls are showing Biden stealing Trumps lead with working class whites - because they call the wrong counties and don’t get representative samples. It’s typical that Republicans way overperform polls among working class whites because they’re just hard to poll. Last time he won 70.5% of the two party vote share among them (67% overall). If Trump were to go up to even just 72-73% of the two party vote share with working class whites, with no change in turnout from 2016, this map would be easy to achieve.
So now we will find out what white blue collar voters actually care about. The media COVID scare, or the economy and jobs which Trump has revitalized, SCOTUS, and the constant pandering of the Dems to radical extremists in BLM and Antifa. My guess is the latter.
Not necessarily... Only went for Hilldawg by 5, and prior to Obama was reliably GOP.
However, there are now SO MANY liberal motherfuckers in the DC suburbs it’s actually ridiculous. Remember how last time Trump was up 5 in the returns but when Richmond et al started to come in, it ended up Hilldawg +5. 10 point swing based on all those liberals up north. Trump would need crazy turnout and margins in central and south to win there. I would say he could win by earning more suburban support - but unfortunately I don’t think DC suburbanites are the kind that Republicans can sway to our side
Why does everybody keeping putting VA in the Dems hands? I can say the enthusiasm here in VA is amazing for Trump. I imagine it's going to go Trump this year.
I can tell you I will be EXTREMELY surprised if in the next election for our govenor, we see Northem come back. Because I can tell you.... Northem going after our guns awoke VA. That's why I'm like 90% sure it's going red this year.
I have my doubts about that but I would love to see it happen. If Trumps increased strength with Hispanics is tremendous enough, it could happen.
Came here to say this. I'd love to see NM flip!
Yup, Oregon also maybe.
CALIFORNIA IS IN PLAY. WE HAVE TWO WEEKS TO "RADICALIZE" CALIFORNIA OVER ALL THE BULLSHIT
Also CT is also a maybe. I smell blood in the water. Governors race in 2018 was lost by the Republican by one percent.
I can see it so vividly happening like this. An overwhelming turnout is the only way
Margins in key groups are crucial too.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Trump takes close to 12-15% of the black vote, and something like a third of the Hispanic vote.
Also keep in mind that all the fake polls are showing Biden stealing Trumps lead with working class whites - because they call the wrong counties and don’t get representative samples. It’s typical that Republicans way overperform polls among working class whites because they’re just hard to poll. Last time he won 70.5% of the two party vote share among them (67% overall). If Trump were to go up to even just 72-73% of the two party vote share with working class whites, with no change in turnout from 2016, this map would be easy to achieve.
So now we will find out what white blue collar voters actually care about. The media COVID scare, or the economy and jobs which Trump has revitalized, SCOTUS, and the constant pandering of the Dems to radical extremists in BLM and Antifa. My guess is the latter.
Not necessarily... Only went for Hilldawg by 5, and prior to Obama was reliably GOP.
However, there are now SO MANY liberal motherfuckers in the DC suburbs it’s actually ridiculous. Remember how last time Trump was up 5 in the returns but when Richmond et al started to come in, it ended up Hilldawg +5. 10 point swing based on all those liberals up north. Trump would need crazy turnout and margins in central and south to win there. I would say he could win by earning more suburban support - but unfortunately I don’t think DC suburbanites are the kind that Republicans can sway to our side
Literally the swamp
Why does everybody keeping putting VA in the Dems hands? I can say the enthusiasm here in VA is amazing for Trump. I imagine it's going to go Trump this year.
I think we have a fighting chance there - and if you’re on the ground in VA I trust you more than my own analysis!
I just hope you enthusiastic Pedes can outnumber the swamp creatures in “occupied Virginia.”
I can tell you I will be EXTREMELY surprised if in the next election for our govenor, we see Northem come back. Because I can tell you.... Northem going after our guns awoke VA. That's why I'm like 90% sure it's going red this year.
That’s right, I’d forgotten about that.
Is he the same fucker that allegedly supported “after birth abortion” (murdering children) as well?
Yep! And he's the same fucker that either dressed up in black face OR wore a Klan hoodie in I believe the 80s for his college yearbook!