This. Every election the polls get it wrong, and every election we say "next time we won't trust the polls!" Then without fail the next time we hear bad polls and freak out. It's the political equivalent of Charlie Brown and the football.
When a person is exposed to an extremely high amount of ionizing radiation, it destroys their chromosomes and their cells can no longer regenerate themselves.
Initially, there may be very little immediate damage so they actually feel fine, but the reality is, they are already dead. As their cells naturally die, they can not be replaced, and over a matter of days to a few weeks at most, they turn into a living corpse, until multiple system failure finally ends their misery.
That is the current state of political polling. There is no, "If Trump Wins". Political polling is already dead, they just don't know it yet. Their outdated methodologies and assumptions are completely out of line with reality and their standards and practices are unsuitable to the task of realigning themselves.
Here’s an oversimplified but illustrative example of why polling is stupid:
-> Pollster - “I think 70% of people will vote for Biden.”
-> Polls 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans, Biden wins 6-4.
-> Pollster - “Biden is ahead by twenty points.”
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Biden is definitely losing, but if they use the wrong indicators or predict turnout wrong, they’re totally fucked. It used to work until Trump designed a completely new platform and attracted a new coalition, some of whom didn’t used to vote.
That's all very true. It's beyond just bad assumptions, though. It's also important that the entire concept of phone etiquette has drastically changed.
30 years ago, you could call a house and people just answered. And once they answered, they felt it was rude to hang up. So a skilled survey worker could easily call several dozen people a day across an area code and get fairly honest answers from a sample they could reasonably expect to be representatives.
Since then, culture and technology have both changed, few people even have landlines, those that do have caller ID, everyone with a cell phone has caller ID built in, and no one feels any guilt whatsoever in screening their calls. The vast majority of people that I know will not even answer a call from an unknown number, and if they do, they feel no guilt whatsoever about hanging up the second they realize it's a solicitation of some kind
It's the same with text canvassing. Almost no one answers them. So if you consider what kind of person would take the poll and factor in how many of those people would deliberately troll the pollsters, you see that it is literally impossible to accurately poll modern voters using anything related to the old methods, and no one has been able to come up with an effective new method.
In addition to all of that, the 2020 census has not been released so we are at the point of maximum inaccuracy of demographic data. Pollsters have no idea what the real geographic distribution of various voting groups is. Again, the change in phones has complicated this because loads of people never change their phone number when they move so a person with a Florida phone number may actually be living in Arkansas.
Yeah, almost all of this I have personal experience with actually. I keep getting Martha McSally texts and I don’t live in Arizona - but I won’t respond opt out or respond because I don’t want to do signal any kind of confirmation to bad actors. I have also received what appear to be text polls and I won’t answer because I’m afraid it’s not what it says it is.
They already do govern that way. Consider how many Dems subscribe completely and wholly to postmodernism (the idea that truth isn't objective, but rather decided by the individual). You ever hear the phrase "my truth" or "your truth"? That's postmodernism.
Tale it a step further. Because there is no objective definite truth, how do you establish morality? By taking everyone's "truths", and picking the ones that the most people agree upon. The postmodern worldview needs constant polls to determine what is right and what is wrong.
Now consider how easy it is to manipulate polls, and you quickly see that whoever runs the polls controls what society sees as right and wrong. And that's how we got to where we are today.
Polls don't consider that sometimes people will say one thing when asked, but do a different thing when the time comes.
For example, they may say they'll vote for Biden, but then be so unmotivated by Sleepy Joe on election day that they'd rather stay home watching re-runs of Tiger King than get out and vote.
Still lying. The political polling industry isn’t shutting down shop anytime soon. They might hide after the election for a bit but they’ll come right back and start lying again.
As it should be Frank.
Being frank with us is exactly what we want
He seems to be well on the way to wasting away to nothing. Good riddance.
Yes he was, and the way it was worded it was like you need to pay for good numbers. This clowns credibility is gone, as it should be.
Then tell the truth, duh.
They were done four years ago.
This. Every election the polls get it wrong, and every election we say "next time we won't trust the polls!" Then without fail the next time we hear bad polls and freak out. It's the political equivalent of Charlie Brown and the football.
When a person is exposed to an extremely high amount of ionizing radiation, it destroys their chromosomes and their cells can no longer regenerate themselves.
Initially, there may be very little immediate damage so they actually feel fine, but the reality is, they are already dead. As their cells naturally die, they can not be replaced, and over a matter of days to a few weeks at most, they turn into a living corpse, until multiple system failure finally ends their misery.
That is the current state of political polling. There is no, "If Trump Wins". Political polling is already dead, they just don't know it yet. Their outdated methodologies and assumptions are completely out of line with reality and their standards and practices are unsuitable to the task of realigning themselves.
Here’s an oversimplified but illustrative example of why polling is stupid:
-> Pollster - “I think 70% of people will vote for Biden.” -> Polls 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans, Biden wins 6-4. -> Pollster - “Biden is ahead by twenty points.”
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Biden is definitely losing, but if they use the wrong indicators or predict turnout wrong, they’re totally fucked. It used to work until Trump designed a completely new platform and attracted a new coalition, some of whom didn’t used to vote.
That's all very true. It's beyond just bad assumptions, though. It's also important that the entire concept of phone etiquette has drastically changed.
30 years ago, you could call a house and people just answered. And once they answered, they felt it was rude to hang up. So a skilled survey worker could easily call several dozen people a day across an area code and get fairly honest answers from a sample they could reasonably expect to be representatives.
Since then, culture and technology have both changed, few people even have landlines, those that do have caller ID, everyone with a cell phone has caller ID built in, and no one feels any guilt whatsoever in screening their calls. The vast majority of people that I know will not even answer a call from an unknown number, and if they do, they feel no guilt whatsoever about hanging up the second they realize it's a solicitation of some kind
It's the same with text canvassing. Almost no one answers them. So if you consider what kind of person would take the poll and factor in how many of those people would deliberately troll the pollsters, you see that it is literally impossible to accurately poll modern voters using anything related to the old methods, and no one has been able to come up with an effective new method.
In addition to all of that, the 2020 census has not been released so we are at the point of maximum inaccuracy of demographic data. Pollsters have no idea what the real geographic distribution of various voting groups is. Again, the change in phones has complicated this because loads of people never change their phone number when they move so a person with a Florida phone number may actually be living in Arkansas.
Speaking of moving, consider how many people have moved thanks to the coof.
Yeah, almost all of this I have personal experience with actually. I keep getting Martha McSally texts and I don’t live in Arizona - but I won’t respond opt out or respond because I don’t want to do signal any kind of confirmation to bad actors. I have also received what appear to be text polls and I won’t answer because I’m afraid it’s not what it says it is.
Then let it die.
As we saw with Luntz and Hunter’s exchange, it’s bullshit anyways.
Just tell the truth. Shit they act as if they have no control over it.
All they had to do was tell the truth and they would still have credibility and still be employed after this year.
They were the architects of thier own demise.
Perfect! If they ever convinced people they got polling right, they'd try to go to governing by polls.
They already do govern that way. Consider how many Dems subscribe completely and wholly to postmodernism (the idea that truth isn't objective, but rather decided by the individual). You ever hear the phrase "my truth" or "your truth"? That's postmodernism.
Tale it a step further. Because there is no objective definite truth, how do you establish morality? By taking everyone's "truths", and picking the ones that the most people agree upon. The postmodern worldview needs constant polls to determine what is right and what is wrong.
Now consider how easy it is to manipulate polls, and you quickly see that whoever runs the polls controls what society sees as right and wrong. And that's how we got to where we are today.
WHY WERE YOU E-MAILING HUNTER, FRANK?
https://twitter.com/WarRoomPandemic/status/1319022578002964485?s=20
this is going into my victory celebration folder
That already happened after 2016.
Correction, everyone will now know they are done. They were done when 2016 election exposed their fraud.
Edit: And just to be clear, Trump winning will not be an "upset". Nice try fools.
That would be great! Also, reformat the FBI, ATF, DEA, CIA, NSA weed the traitors out. Rebuild.
These terms are acceptable. And please frank, take the wig off, no one cares if your bald. We care that you're a hack.
Is that a promise?
Polls don't consider that sometimes people will say one thing when asked, but do a different thing when the time comes.
For example, they may say they'll vote for Biden, but then be so unmotivated by Sleepy Joe on election day that they'd rather stay home watching re-runs of Tiger King than get out and vote.
I mean.... they are until next go round. they're part of the campaign money system. they won't just go away.
They will forever be useful to the corrupt media, people forget. It's only when the MSM is dead that these other orgs will wither and die.
You are 4 years behind Frank
It’s already over. They just haven’t accepted it.
What's your rate Frank?
Still lying. The political polling industry isn’t shutting down shop anytime soon. They might hide after the election for a bit but they’ll come right back and start lying again.
Nice rug.