My guess is that we get Florida, Ohio and Michigan, biggest concern for me is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. Call me crazy, but I think we get Minnesota - thanks Antifa.
Trump barley lost MN last time, and the Rust Belt in general seems to trending more towards him. MN is probably actually easier for him than WI. I agree with you, hope he does get PA tho
Dems are ahead in mail votes by about 23%, but considering that Dems said they would vote by mail about 60-30% and Reps will vote on Election day 60-30% it's not that bad
Dem VBM was always going to be higher because of corona but it doesn't seem.as high as they claimed it would be. Something like 70% of Reps will vote on Election day, so if Dems are even or behind in IPEV and not 50% ahead in VBM seems bad for them
It really depends on how the 25% NPA are voting, but let's assume that they vote along the same percentage of R vs. D (meaning if 1/3 of the votes are R, 1/3 D, and 1/3 I, we assume it's 50-50 Trump vs. Biden).
The current total in Miami-Dade is 220,336 vs. 144,878. There have been a total of 488,150 votes in the county so far. So if we assume all R vote Trump and all D vote Biden, and the I's split in the same percentage, then the total is - 193,646 Trump, 294,504 Biden.
In 2016, Hillary won M-D 624,116 to 333,999. Let's round up and say that this year 1 million people vote in that county. Trump will be at 396k vs. 604k for Biden. That's a huge gain for Trump of 82k votes just in Miami Dade!
Now obviously there are some assumptions there, but I like it! And obviously the total D advantage right now is coming from the VBM. If the majority of remaining voters are going to vote in person, the ground that Trump makes up in M-D could be YUGE!
Thanks, I love breaking this down and comparing to prior elections. Wish we had this type of website for every state. I may make a topic asking to see if we can identify all of the early vote site data.
Lots of us new voters in Miami. I know at least 5 people (including me) who didn't vote last time, and voted for GEOTUS this time.
Make sure they all bring their friends
They are the friends I brought :)
have each of them bring five friends and also each of those 5 bring five. troll science to win
Friends FACTORIAL
My guess is that we get Florida, Ohio and Michigan, biggest concern for me is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. Call me crazy, but I think we get Minnesota - thanks Antifa.
Trump barley lost MN last time, and the Rust Belt in general seems to trending more towards him. MN is probably actually easier for him than WI. I agree with you, hope he does get PA tho
And I'll bet my last crack pipe that 10% of those dems (or more) are Trump votes, and another 10% are lobertarians
Anyone have the breakdown for mail in votes for Miami Dade? I am curious how much better we are doing overall.
Dems are ahead in mail votes by about 23%, but considering that Dems said they would vote by mail about 60-30% and Reps will vote on Election day 60-30% it's not that bad
Thanks! 23 points is not bad. I believed Clinton won Dade by 29 points in 2016.
is it safe to assume their VBM margin is similar to total margine including ED votes
they are way ahead in VBM compared to 2016 though. What do you make of that
2016 VBM: 14.7 D current VBM: 22.9 D
Dem VBM was always going to be higher because of corona but it doesn't seem.as high as they claimed it would be. Something like 70% of Reps will vote on Election day, so if Dems are even or behind in IPEV and not 50% ahead in VBM seems bad for them
It really depends on how the 25% NPA are voting, but let's assume that they vote along the same percentage of R vs. D (meaning if 1/3 of the votes are R, 1/3 D, and 1/3 I, we assume it's 50-50 Trump vs. Biden).
The current total in Miami-Dade is 220,336 vs. 144,878. There have been a total of 488,150 votes in the county so far. So if we assume all R vote Trump and all D vote Biden, and the I's split in the same percentage, then the total is - 193,646 Trump, 294,504 Biden.
In 2016, Hillary won M-D 624,116 to 333,999. Let's round up and say that this year 1 million people vote in that county. Trump will be at 396k vs. 604k for Biden. That's a huge gain for Trump of 82k votes just in Miami Dade!
Now obviously there are some assumptions there, but I like it! And obviously the total D advantage right now is coming from the VBM. If the majority of remaining voters are going to vote in person, the ground that Trump makes up in M-D could be YUGE!
Great comment, thanks for the breakdown!
Thanks, I love breaking this down and comparing to prior elections. Wish we had this type of website for every state. I may make a topic asking to see if we can identify all of the early vote site data.
Can I get a source link please?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ enjoy
Ty!
I am in S Fla...definitely going to be a strong showing for Trump....so many Trump signs and Flags. It's beautiful.