Hi all, I am monitoring Florida voter turnout statistics closely. Here is what I can report
By Oct 19 (in-person early voting began), Democrats held about a 473,000 registered Democrat turnout advantage from mail-in ballots.
Since then, in the past 5 days this advantage has been reduced to about 387,000 and it appears to be shrinking by at least 35,000 votes per day towards Republican.
Republicans are expecting an election day surge of about 400,000 to 500,000 reliable Republican voters.
If the current early voting pace keeps up, Trump could carry Florida by a few hundred thousand votes.
Impossible to know how the independent/NPA voters will vote but they probably mirror the registered Dems and Rep's pretty closely
Miami Dade probably has a 130% mail-in turnout already
Correct, and that is before the additional 30% that gets discovered in boxes in a storage room weeks after the election.
I just ran a little analysis on the rate of increase of registered NPA votes. Up to Oct 19 it was tracking at about the same rate of increase as both parties, maybe slightly higher than Dems. Since Oct 19, this rate of increase is becoming more pronounced, about halfway between registered Dems and Republicans. This could imply that registered NPA voters are behaving more like Republicans this year, voting more in person than democrats are right now. So they could be breaking for Trump. This could conceivably add another 50,000 or 100,000 votes for Trump by election day, if the trend keeps up
As a baseline I am just assuming it is an even split down the line and then working off that. Do you know if there is any polling on NPA voters from either this year or 2016 (pre-election or exit polling) to get a more accurate picture?
I am in possibly the biggest swing county in the whole country. It almost always votes with the national, going back many many decades. I see what is happening on the ground. There is massive Trump support in public, on the roads (giant MAGA, American, and blue lives flags on peoples vehicles) and lawn signs everywhere. However, in just the past few weeks Biden support is coming on surprisingly strong. There was a giant gathering/line of Biden cars the other day, and not just Priuses or shitty cars either. We're talking big pickup trucks for Biden. I saw a GIANT commercial billboard for Biden in a prime location that everyone sees.
Also, I don't recall seeing anywhere near this level of public support of Hillary in 2016 as what I see for Biden now. Of course, the Trump support in 2016 was much more muted as well. I think people were very shy to express their support in either direction, but I remember seeing a few Trump bumper stickers and yard signs in 2016. It's a whole different story now. People are not shy at all right now
Yes, i am going off this spreadsheet here. Somebody linked me to it the other day. Is all of this even supposed to be public data ??
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview#
FL is perhaps the ultimate indicator for the whole country. It reflects what's really going on. The demographics and geography is so complex here nowadays, it really is like a snapshot of the whole country. I was just reading an indepth Rasmussen analysis of Florida. It is mind bogglingly complex, a lot of cross currents happening. A number of trends will be opposite of 2016, some advantage Trump and others advantage Biden but they will sort of balance each other out in a weird way.
Read this article here:
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/10/19/democrats-brace-for-republican-army-in-florida-voting-wars-1327223
It sounds like the 450K number may be on top of whatever the regular turnout is. These are the hardcore Republicans who show up on election day or close to it. There will likely still be several million people (at least) in total, Dems, Republicans, and NPA, who show up on election day, but Republicans will far outnumber everyone in net. That's how it works.
Also, you can be pretty damn sure that the margin will keep decreasing by at least 35,000 per day until election day. Republicans historically vote closer to or on election day in person, and this year Dems are mailing it in well ahead of time. Republicans just aren't living in fear, cowering in their homes. They are winning the in person vote, steadily but surely. I would expect most, but maybe not all, of the Dem advantage to evaporate between now and election day. Then you toss on another 300,000 or 400,000 vote margin (conservative estimate) in favor of Republicans on election day.
What you will likely see on election day, as soon as the polls close they will show a Dem lead, and everyone will think Trump lost Florida. Then by late evening the election day numbers will get counted, and Trump will pull away with a sizeable lead. The real wildcard will be the mail-in ballots that get counted after election day, which could skew more Democrat and could chip away at Trump's lead.