NATE SILVER / 538 ON SUICIDE ALERT: DNC INTERNALS ARE COLLAPSING, GOP FLIPPED MIAMI-DADE TODAY IN IN-PERSON EARLY VOTING, DEMS NOT MEETING VBM TARGETS THERE BY LARGE MARGIN
(media.patriots.win)
posted ago by OsakaRaccoon
+2432 / -0
Comments (109)
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they sent in the kenyan. he had like 8 people show up in miami
kek
get out and VOTE!!!!
"we have to untangle the motives of why voters arent turning out for us"
They are turning out, just not for them.
If if if if if if if if if we fall for... funny sounds.. provocative tweets... okie dokie
https://youtu.be/poz6W0znOfk
I love it when this magically appears. I'm LOL by the 3rd second.
High cheek bones *ding
one of my favorite videos from 2016, I've watched this so many times and it never gets old 😂
Another (now unlisted) placeboing classic the commies at youtube don't want you to see: https://youtu.be/wQ4PYVATBac
Another classic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqYJRc0TJkQ
CHEW SOAP
I was just there to score some Florida cock.
Does it have a more citrus-like flavor down there?
RELEASE THE KENYAN!!!
But the Kenyan Fairy has a magic wand! How did his spell not work??
Why do you think Miami flips for Trump? The “Kenyan” has an amazingly consistent record of energizing opposition.
He's the best gun salesman of the decade. He should be able to get a few more votes for Biden right?
A little more science behind each:
According to most voter preference data, COVID is either #3 or #4 behind economy, jobs, law and order, etc. The anti-Trump COVID gamble has backfired.
Good, because despite EV wisdom, Trump is performing AMAZINGLY
Polling is fucking broken and we got the numbers to prove it now.
C O P E
Polling averages are actually showing more inaccuracy than ever. You can't have Biden +14 nationally but within MOE in every battleground state. C'mon man!
"Don't listen to the news, you might change your mind"
Campaign behavior is actually a fantastic way of determining the state of things, like 2016 Midwest campaigning and Biden in his basement for weeks.
Actually somewhat true! But he's only saying that now because for the first time ever, EV data is blowing up in the face of the DNC and they can't run a numbers-based validation circlejerk piece.
I know nothing about this stuff, but I love your energy and handling of this material, pede. MAGA all the way to the finish line!
I have firued out the Democrats know they canot rig the election to stop Trump. They are now just trying to get enough votes to keep Trump from have a Popular vote landslide. They want to be able to say Muh popular vote and you have no mandate.
My city went from one or two signs here and there. To hundreds all over the place. They know their plan is stinking and they have to race to change it. They scared the F out of everyone 'stay home stay safe vote from home'. Except they can not even get people to vote from home. So now 2 weeks out they have to change the strategy once again.
It is always about 'strategy' never about how do we do better for the american people. It is always about 'polling numbers' never about 'millions are out of work how do we encourage job growth'. It is always about 'narrative' never about how do we actually help anyone.
Biden-Harris signs right? They weren't around last week and this week I am seeing them everywhere all of a sudden fast.
The ones that make me chuckle are the 'republicans for biden'
"Why hello Millipedes. I usually like tax cuts but now I don't love my own money and have discovered the value in changing my gender and turning over private property to the state. This election, I am voting for Joe Biden."
Might as well put out "Liars for Biden".
The B-H signs are everywhere. The local candidates have been paid to place them with their signs and pull all the Trump signs at the same tme around here.
they needed full mail in votes to be able to rig it, there's too much similarity in districts from az, fl, nc, and then the 2nd group are mn,pa,wi,mi. So if they tried to rig things, and can't do it across all the "one state in many", it would create anomalies to obvious.
I will walk through fire, crawl if I must, to vote for DJT on election day. Anyone voting otherwise is a traitor to the Republic. I am not alone!
This is the way.
This is the way.
This is how Nate Silver gets his stuff:
[INSERT NATE SILVER]
The first 2 steps have become not only the most difficult things to do, but are also subject to virtual fraud when you look at how they're done and where precisely they poll (oversampling Dems, improper weights of non-white voters, more urban than rural, etc).
His map is about as accurate as one of those city map rugs you give to 5-year-olds. It's all imaginary.
I still remember the 2016 election GOP primaries, where even Silver's own raw model eventually started showing Trump was guaranteed to win the primary, but he started "weighting" it with a "proprietary weight" which showed Trump couldn't possibly win. Until he, of course, did.
I don't think Silver shows the raw information any more, for some odd reason...
Like the polls having Trump sub-110 electoral votes. Absolutely absurd.
Nate is a poll chump either by his own design or someone set him up (my guess is by his own design, because money). They let him get a few 'right' so he can look like some sort of polling sooth sayer who can read the tea leaves and predict the future. Once that 'sooth sayer' was crowned upon him they started feeding him BS numbers to sway popular opinion. He should be screaming 'they weighted republican turnout at 70% for trump what hot garbage'. Instead he feeds us more crap.
I don't think his methodology is bad, to be honest. The issue is that if your input is garbage, your output is going to be garbage. There are numerous little red flags that make me suspect the polling.
After 2016's election, Nate Silver said something like, "either this was a fluke, or the data and polling industry is a sham." Folks, I think soon we'll have our answer.
Nate Depleted Uranium.
He had Trump at 30% odds to win in 2016. He said it was well within the margin of error.
"SORRY TO KEEP YOU WAITING, COMPLICATED BUSINESS!"
They still have 80k more mail in ballots in Miami Dade https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Dwindling fast. They were expecting somewhere upwards of a 150k VBM lead. Every single county in FL has had record GOP turnout so far and statewide Dem targets are rising while Dem margins are slipping. It's a disaster for them with 10 days to go.
And the best part? There's still more available GOP voters in those counties than Dems on election day. More voters = a larger available electorate = more room to succeed.
I agree, but that's a more accurate statement than just ignoring the huge mail in ballot advantage.
Going by 2016 numbers and independent polling information we have:
I agree.
Phenomenal, if true.
Hey, 2 questions for you...
This is a super dumb question, but has VBM always been a thing in other elections? I literally have never heard of it before covid. I'm asking because I watched a Ben Shapiro video about the state that allows 3 days extra after the election to vote, and it gave the example that they can just look at the results and say "well, I'm going to go vote now!"... but can't they already do this now? With all this VBM stuff seeing pre-mature results doesn't that mean you can just see your county is close to flipping and go vote?
Why do you think Nate Fuckboy is so far off? I looked him up on wikipedia and he's no dummy, he invented some proprietary baseball algorithm and sold several companies. I'm wondering how he can be so far off compared to the half a dozen independent guys who seem to have been right quite a bit (like Trafulgar or whatever)
Five registered democrats in family, including my mother, voted early and they all voted for Trump.
What state? What about the rest of the ballot? Did you vote red or purple?
Yep, they are acting like those do not matter for some reason
This guy is talking himself in circles.
Don't assume the race is in the bag for Biden, but trust the polls which say it's in the bag for Biden.
I can't even.
And then this:
"...Trump's wins in the swing states were NOT that surprising..."
So then, is this an ADMISSION that it wasn't Russians hacking the last election after all?
The early voter thing isn't working out for them. I vote early every time because I travel for work and won't be home for the election day. This time when I went it was unusually packed and this wasn't even the main polling station that most people go to. I'm in a heavily red state but the 3 biggest cities are democrats and that's how we ended up with cucked governor. So I wasn't taking any chances.
Nate Bronze
Nate Copper
Nate Stone
Nate Piece-of-tree-bark
....his stock is slipping fast!
Nate Pyrite
Taint Silver
Nate Tin
Natalie Zirconia
This is why i dont like early voting. Dems know how many cheat ballots they need to stuff in the box.
They will blame it on Covid 19 if they lose. This is what every corporate 'woke' CEO who pushed the BLM narrative is going to do when their company tanks.
Oh no, they won't blame Covid 19.
Nancy: "Donald Trump intentionally let Covid spread in key states to make Democrat voters afraid of participating the ways they normally would. We plan to begin impeachment immediately."
2016 all over again but this time TIMES A 100!!!!! President Trump dominates election night looking like President Reagan in 1984
Literally does not matter until you've voted yourself.
This reeks of inverse demoralization polls.
Literally everyone go to the polls.
this won’t stop anyone, we all know the deck is stacked against us, and we all know what’s at stake.
Nate Silver is likely to lose his job and the rest of whatever the fuck he calls hair.
I am imagining Nate's face on Nov 3rd. How will it compare to 2016?
Doctor, my erection has lasted for four years straight and now the PSI just keeps going up, up, up!
Let's be straight here. The Dems were NEVER winning. The polls were lying the entire time to demoralize the Trump vote and are now slowly coming to reality to save face on election day.
President Trump Nov 3rd 2020 landslide victory!!!!!!!!!!! EASY!!!
Where is data that Miami-Dade flipped?
@airbossut5 on twitter real election analysis
half of his predictions have biden winning texas. i don’t know what he’s smoking. but that is very not likely to happen.
"Going for Broke" and "Doubling Down"
waiting for the poll industry to burn and die all the way to the ballot box.
LMFAO
At this rate, I wonder if that pigshit greaseball faggot will have any hair left to rip out on election night.
This whole "let me tell you how to think" is peak 2020 democrat.
Put the pedal to the metal!! No stopping!! Victory comes Nov 3rd!
hope he has a good rabbi to console him!
That's amazing if this is true. It's definitely a win for Trump in Florida if we can win the Miami metro.
Bit we called him a racist for 3 yrs I don't get it
They'll just crank up the voter fraud to 11.
In this age of doxing and violence against pedes, the notion that ANY of us would answer a pollster honestly (I have personally never in my life received a call from one) is ludicrous. Polling is a scam.
I’ve been wondering about FiveThirtyEight. Checked them out last night and they were doubling down on a Biden win. Had a hood laugh. But seriously, this is a career ended. Who would take hi seriously ever again?
Folks, need to go to @airbossut5 on twitter, he does excellent analysis. And has called the playbook of Nate Silver and the election mafia out from the get go
It would be great if someone would post the best of that here. This is where many of us get our best news and analysis.
Nate Silver is NOT a pollster. He is a READER of polls. Garbage in = garbage out and the clown isn't even skilled enough to notice the garbage.
Ahhh, I guess I can kick back and not vote then. It's in the bag!
nobody is saying that you burnt pop tart
I'm trying to picture what sort of dreg would make that low energy statement.
You're the one being low energy here, you canadian bag of sour milk.
What? We can share information and opinions without the sarcasm. Anyone who posts here is voting.