I was really worried about it though. Beto lost by like 2 points.
Granted it wasn’t a presidential election, but still. That’s way too close for comfort. Thats like a republican losing a California senate or governorship by 2 points, unheard of.
Early voting in several states is clearly showing that the polls are way off.
A similar situation exists in MI, WI and OH, where polls show Biden leading but where early voting shows Republicans ahead of Democrats, in the case of Ohio by like 9 pts. And it's safe to assume that Republicans will gain further as we actually get to election day.
I'm not sure about their data, do you register as D or R there?
The unique thing about Texas is that you're classified by your primary vote, since you ask for a D or R ballot. So those numbers are basically what you've recently voted for... not what you registered as a decade ago.
Example, when I look at the same data for Iowa is shows a D advantage when I know dang well that isn't the case.
I'm not doubting any of this is happening, I'm just sayign it's difficult to find hard data and this is about the most accurate there is. If there are other states that classify you the same they'd have accurate data as well, I just don't know which ones do that (or if there are any others at all).
This is true, in some states, the breakdown they are reporting for early voting is estimated through modeling, and in other states the actual party registration is reported. I think the states I mentioned are estimated, but the data is coming from TargetStmart which is a Democrat organization.
Florida is another good example of a state where they report actual registration. Dems are currently ahead because of mail-in voting, but since in-person voting started, Republicans have been making up aboug 35K votes per day. If that continues to election day then early voting will be close to even, and everyone expects Republicans will vote in significantly greater numbers than Democrats on election day. In Short, Democrats are running probably 400K - 500K behind where they need to be to win the state.
I'm not familiar with any other state, but with the inferred preference this is some pretty accurate data. And there's a large (YUGE) sample size.
Don't listen to all this "Biden can win Texas" bull crap. People that have already voted are +17 R, and that 9% unknown just means that those people didn't vote in the Primary (or otherwise can't be inferred). That adds a few more points so it's likely over +20 R.
Let me give you an example: 1984. Reagan wins in a massive landslide. Took every state except Minnesota and DC. Yet nearly 41% of the population still voted for Mondale.
There is a lot of party loyalty out there and a lot more TDS. It’s not that 37% actively support Pedo Joe. It’s that they either don’t believe the evidence or just vote blind without knowing what’s going on. (Or a mix of both when they watch fake news).
I also voted in the Democrat primary. These "early Democrat votes" are garbage because there was a contested Democrat primary people wanted to participate in.
Same here pede but I’m still worried. Practically all of my friends from high school who were right leaning have gone “all in” with the left. One of the guys got his entire immediate family (5 people) to vote for the first time ever and pull the lever for the blue team. I feel like I’m watching the demise of our great state, it’s depressing to say the least.
Last time I was in Texas, I was shocked by the number of California and New York plates. Let's hope they were just based pedes escaping their shithole states. 🤞🏻
They just keep churning this stuff out all the while ignoring what's actually happening. And these lefty's are eating it up! It's going to be hilarious.
THESE are the polls that matter - KEEP UP with these numbers. They prove the will of the American people... and if the Media makes itself the Arbiter of Victory by declaring Biden the Winner, then you will know it is a lie. All 'Cheat votes' will come in late.
Do I have to register or affiliate with a party before I vote in the primary?
No. A registered voter is not required to pre-register or take any steps towards affiliating themselves with a party before voting in a party’s primary election. (§162.003) Additionally, when a person registers to vote in Texas, they do not register with any kind of party affiliation.
Nooooo! They said Texas was tied in the polls! This can't be true!
I was really worried about it though. Beto lost by like 2 points.
Granted it wasn’t a presidential election, but still. That’s way too close for comfort. Thats like a republican losing a California senate or governorship by 2 points, unheard of.
Cruz isn't well liked here, especially after Trump trashed his wife.
Look at his favorability ratings in 2016 LOL https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-favorability-trend
Beto had so much California money, they really went after that seat and actually had a chance because of that... and still failed.
Now Beto's started talking gun grabbin' and stuff.
Yeah but they had NATIONAL and even INTERNATIONAL $$$ and attention poured into that one, even more unusual
Reality hurts. :)
Ya hate to see it
Early voting in several states is clearly showing that the polls are way off.
A similar situation exists in MI, WI and OH, where polls show Biden leading but where early voting shows Republicans ahead of Democrats, in the case of Ohio by like 9 pts. And it's safe to assume that Republicans will gain further as we actually get to election day.
I'm not sure about their data, do you register as D or R there?
The unique thing about Texas is that you're classified by your primary vote, since you ask for a D or R ballot. So those numbers are basically what you've recently voted for... not what you registered as a decade ago.
Example, when I look at the same data for Iowa is shows a D advantage when I know dang well that isn't the case.
I'm not doubting any of this is happening, I'm just sayign it's difficult to find hard data and this is about the most accurate there is. If there are other states that classify you the same they'd have accurate data as well, I just don't know which ones do that (or if there are any others at all).
This is true, in some states, the breakdown they are reporting for early voting is estimated through modeling, and in other states the actual party registration is reported. I think the states I mentioned are estimated, but the data is coming from TargetStmart which is a Democrat organization.
Florida is another good example of a state where they report actual registration. Dems are currently ahead because of mail-in voting, but since in-person voting started, Republicans have been making up aboug 35K votes per day. If that continues to election day then early voting will be close to even, and everyone expects Republicans will vote in significantly greater numbers than Democrats on election day. In Short, Democrats are running probably 400K - 500K behind where they need to be to win the state.
11 in my family voted Trump. I have 3 more in AZ voting Trump.
Based.
redpilled
I'm not familiar with any other state, but with the inferred preference this is some pretty accurate data. And there's a large (YUGE) sample size.
Don't listen to all this "Biden can win Texas" bull crap. People that have already voted are +17 R, and that 9% unknown just means that those people didn't vote in the Primary (or otherwise can't be inferred). That adds a few more points so it's likely over +20 R.
GO OUT AND VOTE AND LET'S GET THAT EVEN HIGHER!!!
spex: sauce https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results
Texans, the down ballot stuff like DAs and judges are what is destroying your neighborhoods. Even if Trump wins big your local races may be closer.
That's not a Texas problem, that's a right-wing problem. We don't get involved locally and the lefties do.
Lots of lefties with free time on their hands. Not necessarily true for those of us who work and have families.
Maybe, but it doesn’t make it any less of a problem,
Best explanation I have seen for this. Now I know why Texas is such a great state!
Also no blind mail-in ballots, they tried that shit in Harris County (Houston) but they got shut the hell down.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/15/harris-county-mail-in-ballot-applications/
Great news but it’s troubling to know that 37% support a pedofile.
Let me give you an example: 1984. Reagan wins in a massive landslide. Took every state except Minnesota and DC. Yet nearly 41% of the population still voted for Mondale.
There is a lot of party loyalty out there and a lot more TDS. It’s not that 37% actively support Pedo Joe. It’s that they either don’t believe the evidence or just vote blind without knowing what’s going on. (Or a mix of both when they watch fake news).
Austin, Houston, Dallas and El Paso.
Like all major cities in the US the cities themselves are a problem. Venture out 20 minutes and it's a different situation.
I registered democrat and voted in the primary.
Then i voted for Trump in early voting.
I bet there are alot more like me in Texas.
I also voted in the Democrat primary. These "early Democrat votes" are garbage because there was a contested Democrat primary people wanted to participate in.
Same here pede but I’m still worried. Practically all of my friends from high school who were right leaning have gone “all in” with the left. One of the guys got his entire immediate family (5 people) to vote for the first time ever and pull the lever for the blue team. I feel like I’m watching the demise of our great state, it’s depressing to say the least.
Trump takes Texas by 20 points. Watch.
Thanks for the post
Tell me, was Texas EVER in doubt?
Last time I was in Texas, I was shocked by the number of California and New York plates. Let's hope they were just based pedes escaping their shithole states. 🤞🏻
Here's to hopin
Depends where you are. If you're in Austin and see a California plate, they're probably a pinko. If you're anywhere else, they're based.
These guys actually believe this malarky, it's like c'mon man!
https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/biden-holds-one-point-lead-over-trump-in-texas-new-poll-shows
I hope that Trump wins again! This makes me hopeful...
But NBC says 'Texas is in Play' - and Hollywood drops MILLIONS on Texas...
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/38-donations-Hollywood-stars-fuel-Texas-15317155.php
So you can see how DELUSIONAL the Democrats really are...
they believe their own lies.
“We’Re TuRnInG TexAs bLuE!”
They're literally convinced. Look at this, D+3 in this "poll".
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1320331271135002624
Omg, that’s from less than an hour ago?? They’re delusional. Nov. 4th is going to be fun. I’ve saved a lot of tweets like that.
They just keep churning this stuff out all the while ignoring what's actually happening. And these lefty's are eating it up! It's going to be hilarious.
THESE are the polls that matter - KEEP UP with these numbers. They prove the will of the American people... and if the Media makes itself the Arbiter of Victory by declaring Biden the Winner, then you will know it is a lie. All 'Cheat votes' will come in late.
Texas won't flip for a while. Whwre I live its 95% R. And a lot of the DFW metroplex is.
I can't upvote comments, I keep trying but they aren't sticking. sadpanda.gif
I still don't understand why they have a D and An R ballot. It should just be one ballot with all the candidates on it.
BUT I THOUGHT TEXAS IS GOING BLUE NOOOOOOOOOOO
Nope Texas is going blue CNN said so
If you have to ask for R or D it’s not a secret ballot and that’s only good for parties willing to use intimidation & violence to suppress opposition.
In Texas you can vote in either party’s primary. I voted in the D primary this year. Also I don’t believe this model.
Not in Texas.
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2018-15.shtml
Do I have to register or affiliate with a party before I vote in the primary?