Sorry man I don’t believe this. He talks about paying more attention to trends than the results of the polls but then he shares results of the polls.
& if independents were really breaking 2 to 1 this would be an absolute slaughter. Independents are the largest voter block. There are more independent voters than registered republicans and more independents than registered democrats. From the latest Gallup poll we saw that 28% of the electorate are republicans, 27% are democrats, and the rest are independents.
Republicans are voting trump almost totally (96% approval rating of Trump in Republican Party). We already see larger amounts of democrats voting red than historically (walkaway, not to mention the party is divided between radical leftists and traditional democrats). If it was true that independents were going to vote 2 to 1 in favor of republicans, it would look like approx. 58% popular vote for trump minimum, assuming every republican voted red and every democrat voted blue - pretty much the only states that would go blue are California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and massachusetts. I don’t see that happening.
Ohio went something like +8 red in 2016. If independents were really breaking that way, they would have to know that Ohio isn’t anywhere close to a toss up.
This is a LARP
Edit - scratch that part about Ohio I didn’t take into account the pretty close part
Sorry man I don’t believe this. He talks about paying more attention to trends than the results of the polls but then he shares results of the polls.
& if independents were really breaking 2 to 1 this would be an absolute slaughter. Independents are the largest voter block. There are more independent voters than registered republicans and more independents than registered democrats. From the latest Gallup poll we saw that 28% of the electorate are republicans, 27% are democrats, and the rest are independents.
Republicans are voting trump almost totally (96% approval rating of Trump in Republican Party). We already see larger amounts of democrats voting red than historically (walkaway, not to mention the party is divided between radical leftists and traditional democrats). If it was true that independents were going to vote 2 to 1 in favor of republicans, it would look like approx. 58% popular vote for trump minimum, assuming every republican voted red and every democrat voted blue - pretty much the only states that would go blue are California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and massachusetts. I don’t see that happening.
Ohio went something like +8 red in 2016. If independents were really breaking that way, they would have to know that Ohio isn’t anywhere close to a toss up.
This is a LARP
Edit - scratch that part about Ohio I didn’t take into account the pretty close part