The polls that you see are bullshit. The polls commissioned by campaigns are not, or at least they weren't until the past couple of years.
If you collect enough samples, you can make a reasonable prediction, within the margin of error. But, the Presidential election poses a significant challenge: it's 51 separate elections, rather than a single one. Pollsters try to compensate by proportionally dividing their polling among the various states either by population or electoral votes. But a poll of only 1,500 people results in a very small sample in some states, and if a candidate overperforms in a large state like NY or CA, it throws the whole thing off.
The biggest problem this year is the "shy voter". Given the public consequences for supporting Trump, many voters are refusing to answer truthfully because they don't know who is actually conducting the poll. Some pollsters are attempting to compensate, after finding that an automated poll (talking to a recording) yields different results than a live person.
One pollster has noticed that they get different answers by asking questions like: "do you know someone who is voting for Trump?" and "who do you think will win the election?" Even in the face of contrary "push polls", they consistently find a significant majority believe Trump will win. That particular pollster was one of the few that called Trump's 2016 victory.
The polls that you see are bullshit. The polls commissioned by campaigns are not, or at least they weren't until the past couple of years.
If you collect enough samples, you can make a reasonable prediction, within the margin of error. But, the Presidential election poses a significant challenge: it's 51 separate elections, rather than a single one. Pollsters try to compensate by proportionally dividing their polling among the various states either by population or electoral votes. But a poll of only 1,500 people results in a very small sample in some states, and if a candidate overperforms in a large state like NY or CA, it throws the whole thing off.
The biggest problem this year is the "shy voter". Given the public consequences for supporting Trump, many voters are refusing to answer truthfully because they don't know who is actually conducting the poll. Some pollsters are attempting to compensate, after finding that an automated poll (talking to a recording) yields different results than a live person.
One pollster has noticed that they get different answers by asking questions like: "do you know someone who is voting for Trump?" and "who do you think will win the election?" Even in the face of contrary "push polls", they consistently find a significant majority believe Trump will win. That particular pollster was one of the few that called Trump's 2016 victory.