I'm not looking at polls to make this argument. I'm looking at rallies. Rallies indicate where the campaign thinks it is worth spending resources based on their internal information. Both campaigns think PA is worth a substantial portion of their time. Thus, it is competitive and will probably not be a blowout
based on their internal information. Both campaigns think PA is worth a substantial portion of their time.
And where do you think they are getting that information? They're not pulling it out of thin air. They use polling firms. And no, not even those polling firms are modeling turnout correctly.
Just because the polls are internal doesn't make them right, it just makes them larger data sets from more specific groups.
That data still has to be weighted, and everyone is doing it wrong.
There's a reason the democrats are panicking about Republican early voting numbers being so high. They all thought they were going to crush us in early voting because they were all expecting turnout to be similar to 2016, but it's just not. It's not even close.
Every poll out there is off by 2-3 points at a minimum even if they model turnout correctly simply because Trump voters don't even tell anonymous pollsters the truth.
Now add that to incorrect turnout models. This election is going to ruin a lot of pollsters and the left is going to lose their shit and claim everything is stolen and rigged when the final tally comes in and all the polls were off by 4-6 points.
Your premise is wrong. The Trump campaign is not blindly following polling and does look at other metrics. Probably the same for Biden, although I'm not as familiar with their apparatus.
Even the Bernie campaign based a fair bit of its strategy on non-polling based indicators.
Reality is often different from polling, especially when all the turnout models are wrong.
I'm not looking at polls to make this argument. I'm looking at rallies. Rallies indicate where the campaign thinks it is worth spending resources based on their internal information. Both campaigns think PA is worth a substantial portion of their time. Thus, it is competitive and will probably not be a blowout
And where do you think they are getting that information? They're not pulling it out of thin air. They use polling firms. And no, not even those polling firms are modeling turnout correctly.
Just because the polls are internal doesn't make them right, it just makes them larger data sets from more specific groups.
That data still has to be weighted, and everyone is doing it wrong.
There's a reason the democrats are panicking about Republican early voting numbers being so high. They all thought they were going to crush us in early voting because they were all expecting turnout to be similar to 2016, but it's just not. It's not even close.
Every poll out there is off by 2-3 points at a minimum even if they model turnout correctly simply because Trump voters don't even tell anonymous pollsters the truth.
Now add that to incorrect turnout models. This election is going to ruin a lot of pollsters and the left is going to lose their shit and claim everything is stolen and rigged when the final tally comes in and all the polls were off by 4-6 points.
Your premise is wrong. The Trump campaign is not blindly following polling and does look at other metrics. Probably the same for Biden, although I'm not as familiar with their apparatus.
Even the Bernie campaign based a fair bit of its strategy on non-polling based indicators.
I guess we'll see when the votes are tallied