PHILLY here. 500k is not great for all the early voting they're doing here in the city. Pa Rs will be swarming in person next Tuesday. Gonna be close but I think we take PA
I don't know a single person that voted for Trump in 2016 that is switching to Biden. I do know a bunch who supported Bernie and Hillary that are now voting Trump. Our margins should be larger than last time, if it weren't for fraud.
We haven't even started to vote. Everyone I know is waiting until Tuesday to vote in an act of Fuck you to the Covid scamdemic. If it's close on Tuesday, it will be a land slide by the end of the day.
Early voting numbers are irrelevant. Democrats overwhelmingly vote early. Like three to four times as many Democrats will vote early compared to Republicans. Typically it's the opposite when it comes to in-person election day voting. Republicans overwhelmingly vote on election day. Democrats need significant leads in early voting to compete with the "red wave".
BTW, Trump can win without PA if he wins FL, MI, NC.
Not sure off the top of my head. You could look at early voting totals vs election day turnout data for PA in 2016. Republican turnout on election day will probably be noticeably higher in 2020 considering so many Democrats have switched their registration to Republican, and Trump has been hammering PA with rallies and registering 20 to 30k new voters at every one of those rallies.
The one thing that gives me hope is that naked ballots are invalidated in PA. This will lead to 2 consequences.
1.) More likely than any other state that conservative voters will vote in person (conservative voters are also more likely to hold out until election day)
2.) A greater percentage of democrat votes will become invalidated.
PHILLY here. 500k is not great for all the early voting they're doing here in the city. Pa Rs will be swarming in person next Tuesday. Gonna be close but I think we take PA
Hahahaha, you aren't kidding....
Probably not much more than the ones in the summer did. If those didn't change your mind already, this one won't.
I don't know a single person that voted for Trump in 2016 that is switching to Biden. I do know a bunch who supported Bernie and Hillary that are now voting Trump. Our margins should be larger than last time, if it weren't for fraud.
Early voting numbers only show party affiliation. They don't know how many Democrats are voting Trump.
PS is just so fucked up, without a root and branch clearout of the election idiots, it will never be up for winning.
Best case... PA is a court battle. Luckily, we dont need it.
We haven't even started to vote. Everyone I know is waiting until Tuesday to vote in an act of Fuck you to the Covid scamdemic. If it's close on Tuesday, it will be a land slide by the end of the day.
Early voting numbers are irrelevant. Democrats overwhelmingly vote early. Like three to four times as many Democrats will vote early compared to Republicans. Typically it's the opposite when it comes to in-person election day voting. Republicans overwhelmingly vote on election day. Democrats need significant leads in early voting to compete with the "red wave".
BTW, Trump can win without PA if he wins FL, MI, NC.
Not sure off the top of my head. You could look at early voting totals vs election day turnout data for PA in 2016. Republican turnout on election day will probably be noticeably higher in 2020 considering so many Democrats have switched their registration to Republican, and Trump has been hammering PA with rallies and registering 20 to 30k new voters at every one of those rallies.
The one thing that gives me hope is that naked ballots are invalidated in PA. This will lead to 2 consequences.
1.) More likely than any other state that conservative voters will vote in person (conservative voters are also more likely to hold out until election day)
2.) A greater percentage of democrat votes will become invalidated.
I have trump losing PA and winning with 285-291 EV.