Here is my updated vote tracking spreadsheet for 10/28/2020. Great news!
Arizona: Dem lead has shrunk by another 24,000 to 75,301 and continues to trend downward.
Florida: Dem lead has been shrinking daily since 10/23, it is now at an all time low of 245,912.
Michigan: Rep lead has been growing steadily since 10/22, Trump leads Michigan by 45,962. (For perspective, before Election Day of 2016, he was down in Michigan by over 22,000, so this is a huge positive swing)
Minnesota: Trump is down by 217,861, but this is purely speculative as Minnesota does not have registered party ballots. This is only going off of TargetSmarts modeling which leans democrat.
Nevada: Democrat lead has been fluctuating and is currently around 49,000. This is one to keep an eye on as Trump was down by 30,153 before election day and only lost the state in 2016 by 27,202 votes or 2.4%. If we can keep that lead shrinking, he has a chance to flip Nevada!
New Mexico: Trump is down by 88,386. Before election day 2016, he was down by 46,407 and lost the state by 65,567 votes (8.3%). So he needs to shrink the lead dramatically in the next few days or he will most likely lose the state.
Pennsylvania - this is the state I'm most worried about. Trump is down by 882,626. In 2016, he was up by 8,925 votes before election day. Now, I've heard most of the early votes have come from heavy Democrat counties in PA, like Philadelphia, so these numbers could be very skewed towards Democrats.
Wisconsin: Trump has been gaining a lead in Wisconsin and is now at 84,072. This looks promising!
Considering his leads in MI and WI, AZ looks like it’s heading that direction as well. FL he will definitely win; he could have 283 EC votes if he lost MN, Nevada, and Pennsylvania - still win with 272 votes if he lost AZ
Joe biden isn underperforming Hillary by 10pts in Philly PA and Donald trump is over performing in Philly compared to 2016. Barring massive amounts of fraud there Trump is going to take PA.
I have heard that the majority of these votes have come from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties which are heavy Democrat. So that may account for the D huge leads. I hope
Which site are you using to track these votes? This site has the dems leading Florida by just 201,825. Conservative estimates is they need to be leading by at least 215k going into election day to win, some estimates at 275k. I've heard only two counties in PA allow early voting, though I'm not sure if that's true. Keep in mind, PA had the 2nd most dem voters of any state that voted for Trump in 2016.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
This data is only tracking party registration right? Not actual vote?
If so, how likely do you think it is that there will be large numbers of dems voting Trump? Especially in places like Pennsylvania where Biden had his horrific fracking gaffe?
Here is my updated vote tracking spreadsheet for 10/28/2020. Great news! Arizona: Dem lead has shrunk by another 24,000 to 75,301 and continues to trend downward. Florida: Dem lead has been shrinking daily since 10/23, it is now at an all time low of 245,912. Michigan: Rep lead has been growing steadily since 10/22, Trump leads Michigan by 45,962. (For perspective, before Election Day of 2016, he was down in Michigan by over 22,000, so this is a huge positive swing) Minnesota: Trump is down by 217,861, but this is purely speculative as Minnesota does not have registered party ballots. This is only going off of TargetSmarts modeling which leans democrat. Nevada: Democrat lead has been fluctuating and is currently around 49,000. This is one to keep an eye on as Trump was down by 30,153 before election day and only lost the state in 2016 by 27,202 votes or 2.4%. If we can keep that lead shrinking, he has a chance to flip Nevada! New Mexico: Trump is down by 88,386. Before election day 2016, he was down by 46,407 and lost the state by 65,567 votes (8.3%). So he needs to shrink the lead dramatically in the next few days or he will most likely lose the state. Pennsylvania - this is the state I'm most worried about. Trump is down by 882,626. In 2016, he was up by 8,925 votes before election day. Now, I've heard most of the early votes have come from heavy Democrat counties in PA, like Philadelphia, so these numbers could be very skewed towards Democrats. Wisconsin: Trump has been gaining a lead in Wisconsin and is now at 84,072. This looks promising!
What’s your assessment of a path without PA?
Considering his leads in MI and WI, AZ looks like it’s heading that direction as well. FL he will definitely win; he could have 283 EC votes if he lost MN, Nevada, and Pennsylvania - still win with 272 votes if he lost AZ
This pede excels
Joe biden isn underperforming Hillary by 10pts in Philly PA and Donald trump is over performing in Philly compared to 2016. Barring massive amounts of fraud there Trump is going to take PA.
Yes I believe he has a good chance of winning, that’s why I added a note that it appears Philadelphia has the majority of votes right now
Have you heard of Tom Wolfe, Jim Kenney and Larry Krasner?
We will see how much they can pull off. But I'm not going to be one of the doomer on here crying about how we already lost PA.
Pennsylvania is not looking good at all. It is way down from 2016. What is going on there?
I mean besides riots
I have heard that the majority of these votes have come from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties which are heavy Democrat. So that may account for the D huge leads. I hope
Which site are you using to track these votes? This site has the dems leading Florida by just 201,825. Conservative estimates is they need to be leading by at least 215k going into election day to win, some estimates at 275k. I've heard only two counties in PA allow early voting, though I'm not sure if that's true. Keep in mind, PA had the 2nd most dem voters of any state that voted for Trump in 2016. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
I'm using https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_nav which uses TargetSmart modeling for the registered party share (look at my note under the post). I definitely believe Trump is going to win Florida. Also feel the same about what you said about PA
This data is only tracking party registration right? Not actual vote?
If so, how likely do you think it is that there will be large numbers of dems voting Trump? Especially in places like Pennsylvania where Biden had his horrific fracking gaffe?
Registered party yes. I definitely think we will see FAR more D->R crossover than the reverse. Just look at the Walkaway movement.