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hectorspector 2 points ago +2 / -0

I don't think they've adjusted their models to reflect the Trump political shift.

  1. Higher R black vote %

  2. Higher R hispanic vote %

  3. Higher R blue collar vote %

  4. Higher R disaffected vote %

  5. Higher R registration (reflected in 4)

In short, their models are designed as if this is the republican party of Bush, but it ain't.