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So, you're buying "contracts" that are ultimately worth either $1 or nothing, and they are traded in much the same way stocks are in the meantime. For example, a single contract for a Trump win is currently selling for $.38. If you buy one at $.38 and hold it until after the election, it will either pay out $1 if he wins or be worthless if he loses, and you can sell it for whatever the going price is in the meantime. Be careful with it. I've been leery of it ever since I got royally rekt by Roy Moore because he smooched on some chick in his Pinto in 1970.
if you convert 'Jesus is King' into binary. Do some weird fake voodoo mathematics, covert it back to letters then you'll get 'Trump is your President.'
Well, with Republicans BARELY supporting him in 2016 and still having massive resistance from RINOs and Never Trumpers to this day, let’s hope he starts his own party after he wins.
That should shut people up about there only being 2 parties.
What if Trump started a MAGA Party and ran for a third term? And won? That would be epic. He'd have to be really careful not to split the vote and hand victory to the Democrats like Theodore Roosevelt did in 1912, though. But I think maybe we may have finally reached the point where it's time to mothball the GOP.
Voter ID has to be first on the Menu if we get the House and Senate. Ram it down their throats with 10 year minimum sentence for voter fraud first offense.
Yeah from what I'm seeing is a lot of election fraud in PA but yet almost everyone is for Trump... But yet we have Scott Presler in PA so I'm trying to stay positive that he will help turn that State RED
And if I may add, the BLM riots aren't there for nothing, they know Republicans usually vote on voting day in person and they're going to turn the city into a burning hell to make sure we have problems voting. that's why there needs to be 10,000 National Guards in Philadelphia.
It's the riskiest, but even if they steal PA, it's still a big take. I have faith Trump and his team of attorneys are prepared for it. Without fraud, it's an easy win.
Who cares about NOVA the path to victory is Va beach/ Norfolk and the suburbs. Blacks are 20% of the state and are now 30% republican. Talked to many Hispanics that are voting for PRESIDENT TRUMP because of the economy. We can win!
NOVA is almost half the entire states population and it is extremely extremely blue. Couple that with Richmond and a few other blue counties, and I see very little chance of VA flipping this year.
And while some would say it's not a measure of how things are, I can assure you that yard signs, at least in the area where I live, and the area where I work, are at least 10 to 1, if not 20 to 1 in favor of Biden. It's sickening, but it's true.
Nova is like 37% and there is a lot of conservatives up there too. Out of 4 million registered voters in the state usually only about 2-2.5 million turn out to vote. A third party libertarian will get in to grab 30-100k votes and we lose by about 200-400 k votes.
Mark Warner is running ads like crazy now that Gade is within 5 points on their polling. Spanburger has been running ads for 2 years now. They are scared they are gonna lose.It’s gonna be a close election but I think we can flip this year and elect Amanda Chase for governor next year🇺🇸🇺🇸
I like your confidence pede, and wish I could share it. Unfortunately what I see here day in and day out says otherwise.
Most people I talk to out here loves Blackface and brushes off his scandal, and nobody seems to care much about the gun control stuff except of course my republican friends. Most liberals I know, like basically everyone I work with thinks it's a good thing.
Its true, sorry I have nothing to add, I just want to cry for my old home. I never thought I'd see the day where Minnesota has a greater chance of going red. 😭
If me mobilize everyone in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake we can shrink the margins...unless there is a vote harvesting bull shit or something going on.
In general I agree with your reasoning, to a point. The larger the grift is, with a larger body of conspirators, the easier it is for mistakes to be made and for whistleblowers to expose their voter fraud. Even though they don't get prosecuted, examples like Broward County in Florida come to mind, the act of exposure can halt it in its tracks.
Virginia still has voter ID and we use electronic voting machines so secure voting is still possible in blue areas, except maybe Fairfax, Prince William, and Portsmouth counties.
There are red city strongholds for Republicans like Virginia Beach, where the vote is 50/50 split but the government is still under Republican control...these red city strongholds, the rural vote, the blue collar vote, and the overwhelming latino and black vote are still a combined winning formula in my opinion but time will tell.
NM, CO, ME, VA, OR, and NJ would be next on my list to go red, but you have to cut it off somewhere. NV, NH and MN were he last three to make my list. A landslide is possible, but improbable in my opinion.
Those three are definitely the most questionable. A lot will depend on where Trump campaigns the few days before election day. He won every state he campaigned in during the last few days except NH, and he barely lost it. He's in MI, WI and MN tomorrow.
Conventional thinking, in this case is mathematically incorrect.
If Trump pulls 30% of the Black vote, then Cook's usual turnout numbers are gonna tank. Plus a black vote for Trump is really a 2 vote pickup... one less for them and one more for us.
Illinois isn't gonna be the "first surprise" of the night, but rather the nail in the coffin. Losing Illinois will be the death rattle of the Democrat party and it cannot come soon enough.
I live in Farmville, notoriously blue county (Prince Edward) and from what I see here Biden has a massive lead against Trump. Went for Clinton in 2016, and there are a ton of Biden signs in the extremely rural areas around the town too. It's not looking good out here and really has me discouraged.
I blame most of it on the libtards at Longwood, but it definitely looks like a Biden victory out here.
Depends if the riots keep up in Philly. PA is Philly and Pittsburgh vs. the rest of us. Word on the street is that Trump is polling 25%+ in Philly, with the riots swinging things his way. Typically Philly is <10% R, so if the 25% number is true, Trump has PA.
Yeah, Roy Cooper and the magical trunk full of late night ballots.
Sadly, if McCrory wasn't a Biden-esque "deal" maker and pushed through the toll lanes on I-77 in Charlotte, he'd still be Governor. The north Charlotte/Huntersville/Davidson/Mooresville corridor voted Republican down ticket EXCEPT for McCrory because of that. If they'd voted for him instead, Cooper couldn't have stolen enough votes.
I'm not sure how NC will turn out, honestly. I think Trump is likely to take it but we keep Cooper and lose Tilli$.
In 2016, Trump was down 9 points in the polls, but ended up losing by only 1.5 points. That was the biggest polling error in the country, with Wisconsin close behind.
Now, he's down 6 points, which is less than than 7.5 he made up on election night in 2016.
Minnesota and Wisconsin are the only two states where current polls show him ahead of where he was in 2016 at this point.
There are two explanations: Either Trump support has increased so much in those two states that suppression from pollsters can't overcome it entirely. Or, the polls have adjusted to include the surprise Trump supporters, and that's where all his "rise" has come from.
Also, Minnesota has been trending redder and redder the past several elections. The Iron Range of northern Minnesota was the last rural blue area, and this year a bunch of Democratic Iron Range Mayors officially endorsed Trump.
Finally, George Floyd happened, and Minneapolis burned.
It was my first time betting on predictit, so I bought high. I think I wagered $30k to win $45k. If I would have waited until election afternoon (before FL panhandle results came in), that $30k would have probably been $200k if I had the stones to max the same lines.
Interesting.. you think same will happen again in terms of odds? This GDP and black vote poll is incredible for Trump, can’t imagine the odds going up for Biden after today
So here's how the PredictIt shuffle goes. You are correct that there are a LOT of lefty retards on PI, however there are a select amount of big players that play along with them but bet opposite against them. This happened three times in huge reversals (Bernie primary win 2016, Bernie primary win 2020, Hillary win 2016, all reversed at end). The whole scheme only works because the Left, more than the Right, bets on FEELINGS. This is more of less how I noticed it happens:
2016 Elected President:
1.) Three way split for Bernie, Hillary, Trump at start. Lefty progs throw down on Bernie because muh uptopia, reasonable lefties down on Hillary, Trump shafted to lower odds because nazi.
2.) Smart betters with a brainstem know Trump is undervalued, because Jeb! is not going to win GOP nomination LOL, easy money.
3.) Bernie drops out, odds between Hillary / Trump narrow for only a bit before splitting again into bigger gap, maybe 60% / 40%, as Bernie bros throw money at Hillary because again, FEELINGS.
4.) Now here is where the SMART betters change course. They begin throwing down on Hillary. Bernie bros, lefty prog retards suddenly see a big jump to 65% Hillary - OH SHIT, easy money better go all in on Hilldawg because Trump is orange nazi! Odds accelerate to 75%+ Hillary / 25% and lower for Trump. Almost the entire PI website jumps on board to accomplish this, pumping more so than smart betters ever could on their own.
5.) The smart betters, being not-fucking-retards-that-worship-Nate-Silver, exit here having made good money pre-Hillary pump. Seeing that things are stable and PI users are hooked to an IV drip of fake polls, fabricated scandals about Trump, and asleep at the wheel throw those earnings into cheap, cheap TRUMP odds.
6.) Mfw literally at 9PM on election night on PI, Florida or whatever state results come in and BOOM, the 11th hour reversal is complete and Hillary / Trump odds reverse to where they finally end 0% / 100%. Bernie bros yet again go back on food stamps and pay day loans.
7.) OP makes himself a salt mine margarita and gets smashed in celebration.
Great breakdown!
I was betting that Trump wouldn’t be impeached in 2017 and making over 60% annualized return from the idiot leftists. Just took all of my money out bought my first handgun with the profit
Are you just taking Trump straight or trying to hit a certain number of electoral votes? +110 on the incumbent right now is looking extra juicy. Imo, free money. Might have to set some bets
Guys, guys. Let’s stay realistic here. While most NY counties are based NYC is so unbelievably cucked and solidifies a dem victory. VA is more of a realistic win than NY
Ya. My parents liked johnson also as they experienced his governorship. (They still voted trump in 16) Johnson helped pass no tax on food in this state which is fucking awesome.
(I have nothing concrete to base this on but give me precious up votes if I am right and angry down votes if wrong).
Ok here is my very very thin reasoning:
People fled new york city in huge numbers, they lost something like 40% of their population. This will affect their voting turnout and this the rest of the state will have far greater influence then normal.
Also enough people who live in New York are mad at their dem leaders to punish them by not voting for them or voting for the other party.
Finally, Dems are spending no time or money on new york as its "soild blue" and also no money for fraud.
Trump is a new yorker and if your city is broken and you know for a fact someone who would fix it, hire them.
Anyway, you heard it here first. Trump flips the state of his birth.
They do commit major fraud in NYC. See the project veritas videos from 2016. They bus people around to different polling stations. Been doing it for 50 years
The 40% number comes from preliminary census reporting data. NYC has about 60% reporting. That and the uhuals have been sold out for months. Flight from the city due to covid, lockdowns, and riots/violence is very real and while many will return next year, this election will be affected even with vote by mail and fraud.
Lost temporarily... probably, but the flight out of the city for covid and lockdowns was real and the 40% number comes from only 60% of the city filled in census data report I read a month or so ago. The city dwellers will come back next year but even with vote by mail this desertion of the city has to affect things.
People fled new york city in huge numbers, they lost something like 40% of their population.
One of the scary wildcards I haven't heard anyone talk about is where did those New Yorkers go? Well, the rich ones went to their place in the Hamptons. The young ones moved back in with their parents in Pennsylvania. The older ones accelerated their exodus to Florida. Am I far off? If not, that's shitty news for the election.
Did they reregister though or are they still registered in new york but their ballot is at their old address and they are too scared of covid to go back?
Governor Doctor Blackface Mengele Coonman Northam poked the hell out of a hornet's nest.
Up here in NoVa the mailers from Republican candidates are almost unabashedly conservative in contrast to the kind of mealy-mouth demotard-lite crap we always got from Tom Davis, Frank Wolf, and Barbara Comstock.
I was really hoping to see something terrible drop about Warner since he is dirty as hell on the collusion bullshit, but it looks like the clock ran out on that.
I don't know about predictit, but bovada has a standard $5k limit, but allows you to get an exception to bet higher. I'm not sure what their criteria is though, because I only bet $1k on the election.
Buy Bitcoin or ETH on crypto exchange (like Coinbase, Kraken), send to FTX, bet on Trump options. At the moment it's at $0.372 and goes to $1 if Trump wins.
It sounds so ridiculous, but when you look at election participation historically - it's completely possible. Each year for decades it's been about 50% of the eligible voting population shows up to vote. Hmmm, what if, even just 15% of that missing population came out of the woodwork one year suddenly?
Imagine this virus completely fucks your normie life and for the first time ever you pay attention to politics...but the news seems pretty contradictory, and things were pretty good prior to the virus. You also can't eat out, go to church, or work properly anymore, but these rioters everywhere can do whatever the hell they want.
The loud orange man seems pretty confident he can get it back to normal again, and the Democrat old man seems more like your father you put in the nursing home last year than an actual world leader material.
It's not that simple. Plenty of liberals in California would stay home as well in past years because "the outcome is inevitable." But they'll be inclined to vote more this year for the same reason as Republicans.
The idea of California flipping is completely ridiculous by the way. Has about the same chance of happening as West Virginia choosing Biden. See how ridiculous it is to say "what if, even just 15% of those missing liberals in West Virginia came out and flipped the state"?
No I don't see it, because you fail to specify where the 15% comes from. Who do you think votes more in blue California year to year, over the last 40 years: urban Democrats, or rural Republicans?
If Trump actually was in some alternate reality doing a terrible job, West Virgina could easily flip blue. "WV would never flip blue even with more blue voters" is some pretty fucking dumb logic especially considering WVs pop is way smaller than heavy LA urban city centers.
The Senate candidate literally was the first guy to call for Trump to exit the race when the bombshell recording of "grab them by the pussy" broke. It split the party unity and we had a huge undervote.
Also Colorado was ground zero for the Never Trumpers. Our state delegation actually walked out of the RNC nomination assembly.
This time, our top state Candidate, Sen Gardner is 100% Trump, and the Never Trumpers have shut the hell up. Denver has pushed the BLM crap too far, and a red tide is over due.
Oh man, that'd be great news. I'd honestly written off CO up to this point. CO should be purple but I thought there were too many hippies, cucks, and Californians there now.
If this is correct, and I pray to God that this is the case, we must force the lying and corrupt media and polling industry out of business after November 3rd. There is no commercial room in society for people who make money based on lies, fraud, and election interference.
Flipping MN would be huge since it hasn't happened since 1972. Hopefully the "summer of love" has made people rethink their allegiance to the DFL party.
Extremely wealthy people. No different from a $20,000 bet on a hand of blackjack or horse races. It's just play money to them (and/or a gambling addiction).
How are you betting that much on predictit? The way I see it, there are 6 proxy presidential bets.. with $850 cap total, that's only 5100 you can wager
If they were smart, they would flip - God knows they are suffering more than most states due to their Scamdemic measures. Hawai'i is more economically dependent on tourism than any other state, but their tourism has been essentially zero for months.
But I don't think they will. I'd love to be wrong about that, though.
No way. From what I understand, Hawaiian culture is completely suffused with leftist values. Resentment, racism, laziness, entitlement, arrogance. It might as well be Greece. If Hawaii ever flips red, I'll eat my flex tape.
It really looks like my long shot "Biden Drops out by Nov 1st" bet isn't going to come through. As much as I would have liked making x16 on a bet, I really didn't expect it to.
I'm not familiar enough with other states to bet on the map, but I'm pretty confident of my positions on national markets, and on my local state's markets. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be getting another nice rifle this year, paid for and powered by Democrat tears.
My map is the exact same except I had NH cuck and go blue
It wouldn't shock me though fi Trump just dominates and wins CO and NM in addition to blue wall and NH. In the end the Dems are only left with woke elitist coastal states for the most part.
yeah i was thinking of waiting until a day or 2 before the election and then maybe dump a bunch of money on safe bets like Ohio or Michigan. What do you think?
Props to the foreign pedes out there! Here's hoping that a Trumpism (Brexit and whatnot) can strike the Netherlands. Y'all seem pretty chill, but Liberty, Patriotism, and Excellence need know no borders. May the Kek be with you!
Saving this post for reference! I hope you're right!
I don't know enough about this to know if this is exactly what you're asking, but
How do these work?
So, you're buying "contracts" that are ultimately worth either $1 or nothing, and they are traded in much the same way stocks are in the meantime. For example, a single contract for a Trump win is currently selling for $.38. If you buy one at $.38 and hold it until after the election, it will either pay out $1 if he wins or be worthless if he loses, and you can sell it for whatever the going price is in the meantime. Be careful with it. I've been leery of it ever since I got royally rekt by Roy Moore because he smooched on some chick in his Pinto in 1970.
The other thing you need to look at is Biden not to win. Since he was 69 cents yes, you can get Biden Nos at 31 cents.
Interesting. Australian betting agencies have Biden paying $1.50, and Trump $2.60.
I should've gotten onto him in 2016 when he was paying $1,000...
Is it legal to bet on the presidential election or elections in general?
As I understand it, it's legal because unlike traditional gambling, you're buying/selling "contracts."
45 k?????? Kek!
based and numerology pilled
(note: numerology is fake, turn to Jesus)
wrong.
if you convert 'Jesus is King' into binary. Do some weird fake voodoo mathematics, covert it back to letters then you'll get 'Trump is your President.'
Now THAT is funny!!! 😹
Nice, but 1 isn't a prime number.
c'mon, man, give him a clucking break
...which got me wondering what the hexadecimal value of Amazon Prime squared is.
I speak binary and have a voodoo machine. This is 100% correct.
My cousin is non binary and smells like doo-doo. Even xir gets it.
Is this western imperialist mathematics or black lesbian mathematics?
Lesbian imperialist. It's all the rage.
My second cousin twice removed, VoodooBastard, who just so happens to be an expert in weird fake voodoo mathematics tells me this is legit.
I had a cousin twice removed... but he kept coming back.
Ah, so God really does work in mysterious ways
Lmao
Numerology may be fake but that being said the importance of numbers in the Bible and to God is unmistakable.
Logos permeates all of Gods Creation :)
We should always
Damned, 45k, and I get annoyed when I drop 2K on a pair of shoes for my wife...
Damn, man. I don't think I've spent 2k on clothes in the last 20 years! More power to ya though!
2k??? ALL holes better be accessible.
You think Trump is going to win PA? That's the only one I'm not sure about.
I think PA will come down to a legal battle and expose a massive amount of fraud in the process.
which should immediately lead to Voter ID
Voter ID will cement republicans in power for eternity.
Well, with Republicans BARELY supporting him in 2016 and still having massive resistance from RINOs and Never Trumpers to this day, let’s hope he starts his own party after he wins.
That should shut people up about there only being 2 parties.
The Eagle Party? The Freedom Party? MAGA Party?
Just call it what it is. The TRUMP Party. That will make their heads explode :)
There was an "American" party in the early 1900s. It was orange. I would love this to come back as the Trump party with an orange lion.
Citizen's Party.
DNC = blue GOP = red MAGA = orange
Trump Party will trump the other parties forever
It's the twenty-onest century now; 'colored people' must now be called "people of color".
Party Of Trump - the POT of deplorables.
A pack of Lions is called a what?
PRIDE PARTY
Plus it will piss-off the Lefties cuz LGBTAlphabets
I much prefer this over Lyin' Party.
There was an "American" party in the early 1900s. It was orange. I would love this to come back as the Trump party with an orange lion.
What if Trump started a MAGA Party and ran for a third term? And won? That would be epic. He'd have to be really careful not to split the vote and hand victory to the Democrats like Theodore Roosevelt did in 1912, though. But I think maybe we may have finally reached the point where it's time to mothball the GOP.
Not sure if I’m being trolled but you know that you can only serve two terms right?
** under current law he can only serve 2 terms. A constitutional amendment could change that
LION Party
Which the media would immediately call the "Lyin Party" No thanks.
Lion Party
Voter ID has to be first on the Menu if we get the House and Senate. Ram it down their throats with 10 year minimum sentence for voter fraud first offense.
And permanent loss of voting privileges.
And public flogging, don’t forget the flogging
MASSSSSSIVE penalty for voter fraud. Has to be. Also, only in person and you get the purple finger.
Absolutely true, which begs the question why wasn't it implemented by Ryan and McConnell when they had all the power between 2016 and 2018?
The answer is they are not really on our side.
Turns out Ryan wasn't a true R.
...
....
...
Gee, who knew?
Turns out, except for a small handful, none are. And still some don't know.
If only logic and facts were enough...
There will be a legal battle, but it won't matter because Trump will have his 270+ without PA.
The thinker, as usual, has a pretty good break down.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/trumps_paths_plural_to_270_electoral_votes_and_victory.html
Yeah from what I'm seeing is a lot of election fraud in PA but yet almost everyone is for Trump... But yet we have Scott Presler in PA so I'm trying to stay positive that he will help turn that State RED
And if I may add, the BLM riots aren't there for nothing, they know Republicans usually vote on voting day in person and they're going to turn the city into a burning hell to make sure we have problems voting. that's why there needs to be 10,000 National Guards in Philadelphia.
Well son of a bitch...
It's the riskiest, but even if they steal PA, it's still a big take. I have faith Trump and his team of attorneys are prepared for it. Without fraud, it's an easy win.
He will take va
As a lifelong VA resident I understand the hopeful optimism but think NOVA is just way to full of libs, rinos, and swamp creatures for this to be true
Who cares about NOVA the path to victory is Va beach/ Norfolk and the suburbs. Blacks are 20% of the state and are now 30% republican. Talked to many Hispanics that are voting for PRESIDENT TRUMP because of the economy. We can win!
Gotta consider Richmond and Charlottesville as well, but aye here’s hoping you’re right. Didn’t stop me from voting!
Now if he does win it, it'll be thanks to you.
NOVA is almost half the entire states population and it is extremely extremely blue. Couple that with Richmond and a few other blue counties, and I see very little chance of VA flipping this year.
And while some would say it's not a measure of how things are, I can assure you that yard signs, at least in the area where I live, and the area where I work, are at least 10 to 1, if not 20 to 1 in favor of Biden. It's sickening, but it's true.
Nova is like 37% and there is a lot of conservatives up there too. Out of 4 million registered voters in the state usually only about 2-2.5 million turn out to vote. A third party libertarian will get in to grab 30-100k votes and we lose by about 200-400 k votes.
Mark Warner is running ads like crazy now that Gade is within 5 points on their polling. Spanburger has been running ads for 2 years now. They are scared they are gonna lose.It’s gonna be a close election but I think we can flip this year and elect Amanda Chase for governor next year🇺🇸🇺🇸
I like your confidence pede, and wish I could share it. Unfortunately what I see here day in and day out says otherwise.
Most people I talk to out here loves Blackface and brushes off his scandal, and nobody seems to care much about the gun control stuff except of course my republican friends. Most liberals I know, like basically everyone I work with thinks it's a good thing.
Its true, sorry I have nothing to add, I just want to cry for my old home. I never thought I'd see the day where Minnesota has a greater chance of going red. 😭
Uff da
If me mobilize everyone in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake we can shrink the margins...unless there is a vote harvesting bull shit or something going on.
In general I agree with your reasoning, to a point. The larger the grift is, with a larger body of conspirators, the easier it is for mistakes to be made and for whistleblowers to expose their voter fraud. Even though they don't get prosecuted, examples like Broward County in Florida come to mind, the act of exposure can halt it in its tracks.
Virginia still has voter ID and we use electronic voting machines so secure voting is still possible in blue areas, except maybe Fairfax, Prince William, and Portsmouth counties.
There are red city strongholds for Republicans like Virginia Beach, where the vote is 50/50 split but the government is still under Republican control...these red city strongholds, the rural vote, the blue collar vote, and the overwhelming latino and black vote are still a combined winning formula in my opinion but time will tell.
😔
NM, CO, ME, VA, OR, and NJ would be next on my list to go red, but you have to cut it off somewhere. NV, NH and MN were he last three to make my list. A landslide is possible, but improbable in my opinion.
My map is the same as yours except MN. I don't know about NH. And Nevada is definitely red.
Those three are definitely the most questionable. A lot will depend on where Trump campaigns the few days before election day. He won every state he campaigned in during the last few days except NH, and he barely lost it. He's in MI, WI and MN tomorrow.
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events/
NH was lost by 5000 votes
Edit- actually was 3000. Just looked again this morning according to Politco (Shitico)
And he only lost because the Dems bussed people over the state line to steal the state from him!
Yeah and now they don't even need to bus them. They can just drop the votes off with a mail truck!
31% of the Black vote puts Illinois in our Win column.
I can only hope. Pritzker is a fuckwad and I hope it backlashes on Biden.
Conventional thinking, in this case is mathematically incorrect.
If Trump pulls 30% of the Black vote, then Cook's usual turnout numbers are gonna tank. Plus a black vote for Trump is really a 2 vote pickup... one less for them and one more for us.
Illinois isn't gonna be the "first surprise" of the night, but rather the nail in the coffin. Losing Illinois will be the death rattle of the Democrat party and it cannot come soon enough.
I have been suprised more ppl havent been saying this. especially with the governor ralph Noose'Em. and wat he was trying to do with the gun rights...
I live in Farmville, notoriously blue county (Prince Edward) and from what I see here Biden has a massive lead against Trump. Went for Clinton in 2016, and there are a ton of Biden signs in the extremely rural areas around the town too. It's not looking good out here and really has me discouraged.
I blame most of it on the libtards at Longwood, but it definitely looks like a Biden victory out here.
With almost every county voting to be 2a sanctuary you think people will vote for a gun grabber?
Yeah, lots of people in VA don't care as much as one might hope
I love how we all just realize that we're really only fighting against fraud, and without it Trump would win almost every state in a landslide
Depends if the riots keep up in Philly. PA is Philly and Pittsburgh vs. the rest of us. Word on the street is that Trump is polling 25%+ in Philly, with the riots swinging things his way. Typically Philly is <10% R, so if the 25% number is true, Trump has PA.
Where do we place such bets good sir?
I'm 10000% sure he'll take PA. NC & MI are the two I am unsure about because of voter fuckery allowed by those govs
The key to remember is that Biden needs to win MN, WI, MI, and PA to be able to win. Trump just needs to win ONE of those and he's got it in the bag.
MI and NC are also the two I am worried the most about, but if he sweeps the rest it won't matter. I think he's got NC locked up though.
In Michigan our shitty gov lost a court battle and now all ballots must be received by election night. So that helps.
Your shitty governor is why we're not only going to win that state for the president but get John James into the Senate.
I sure hope so!
USA! USA! USA!
Reminder that AZ, FL, IA, and NC still exist
I’m in NC and I hope he wins. We can’t have Roy Cooper in power any longer.
I heard a rumor yesterday that Cooper intends to roll us back to Stage 2 after the election... I sure hope not. Vote him out!
So lockdowns?
Yeah, Roy Cooper and the magical trunk full of late night ballots.
Sadly, if McCrory wasn't a Biden-esque "deal" maker and pushed through the toll lanes on I-77 in Charlotte, he'd still be Governor. The north Charlotte/Huntersville/Davidson/Mooresville corridor voted Republican down ticket EXCEPT for McCrory because of that. If they'd voted for him instead, Cooper couldn't have stolen enough votes.
I'm not sure how NC will turn out, honestly. I think Trump is likely to take it but we keep Cooper and lose Tilli$.
McCrory deserved to lose for those toll roads. He is an enemy to the people he represented.
I hope not. I hope we get Dan in office and keep Tillis
he only needs to win one....but lets take them all anyway.
THIS. I want CA to flip so badly.
I think he's got PA. Obama heading to MI makes me think he's got that too. Not sure about MN and NH, but he's definitely got a shot there.
Trump is doing a rally in MN tomorrow, so that tells me that he knows it is I N P L A Y
More likely to win PA than little Somalia. What data is there that Minnesota would vote Trump? They weren't even smart enough to vote Reagan
Originally from MN. Can confirm it’s in play. The state has become more red every presidential election since 2008. Trump missed by 1.5% in 2016.
Kanye West is on the ballot in MN. That probably helps as well.
Iron Range (Northern Dem stronghold) appears to be flipping.
Excitement for Trump in rural areas is off the charts. Never seen anything like it.
I put $100 on Trump flipping it. I believe I made $350 if the madman does it.
Good news!
Also Biden was shit for Lumber industry, aside from some more recent price issues trump has been good for there very decentralized industry
Originally from MN also. The rural areas of Southwest MN are for Trump.
In 2016, Trump was down 9 points in the polls, but ended up losing by only 1.5 points. That was the biggest polling error in the country, with Wisconsin close behind.
Now, he's down 6 points, which is less than than 7.5 he made up on election night in 2016.
Minnesota and Wisconsin are the only two states where current polls show him ahead of where he was in 2016 at this point.
There are two explanations: Either Trump support has increased so much in those two states that suppression from pollsters can't overcome it entirely. Or, the polls have adjusted to include the surprise Trump supporters, and that's where all his "rise" has come from.
Also, Minnesota has been trending redder and redder the past several elections. The Iron Range of northern Minnesota was the last rural blue area, and this year a bunch of Democratic Iron Range Mayors officially endorsed Trump.
Finally, George Floyd happened, and Minneapolis burned.
Yeah but Mondale was MN.
They had no staff in MN im 2016 I read they had 600 staff or so this year.
They put money into the state
It was close.
Iron range mayors flipping
Police no doubt have flipped.
Minneapolis suburbs flipping is the key though.
As per pede below I put money on Trump taking MN so maybe biased.
Whoa, wagering $20k? Someone's Burisma wire transfer came through this month.
Listen fat.
how many push ups can you do
We don't deserve to know.
All of them
C'mon man!!
I'm at the gym trying to not shit myself. Thanks for that.
What did you put down to win $45k in 2016?
It was my first time betting on predictit, so I bought high. I think I wagered $30k to win $45k. If I would have waited until election afternoon (before FL panhandle results came in), that $30k would have probably been $200k if I had the stones to max the same lines.
Interesting.. you think same will happen again in terms of odds? This GDP and black vote poll is incredible for Trump, can’t imagine the odds going up for Biden after today
You underestimate the stupidity of many people on predictit. I did in 2016 and it probably cost me six figures.
I haven't used it, but when I checked it out a few days ago Predictit seemed to be full of leftists betting on the polls. Free money, right?
Yes. Full of leftists using 538 as a betting guide.
YUP
So here's how the PredictIt shuffle goes. You are correct that there are a LOT of lefty retards on PI, however there are a select amount of big players that play along with them but bet opposite against them. This happened three times in huge reversals (Bernie primary win 2016, Bernie primary win 2020, Hillary win 2016, all reversed at end). The whole scheme only works because the Left, more than the Right, bets on FEELINGS. This is more of less how I noticed it happens:
2016 Elected President:
1.) Three way split for Bernie, Hillary, Trump at start. Lefty progs throw down on Bernie because muh uptopia, reasonable lefties down on Hillary, Trump shafted to lower odds because nazi.
2.) Smart betters with a brainstem know Trump is undervalued, because Jeb! is not going to win GOP nomination LOL, easy money.
3.) Bernie drops out, odds between Hillary / Trump narrow for only a bit before splitting again into bigger gap, maybe 60% / 40%, as Bernie bros throw money at Hillary because again, FEELINGS.
4.) Now here is where the SMART betters change course. They begin throwing down on Hillary. Bernie bros, lefty prog retards suddenly see a big jump to 65% Hillary - OH SHIT, easy money better go all in on Hilldawg because Trump is orange nazi! Odds accelerate to 75%+ Hillary / 25% and lower for Trump. Almost the entire PI website jumps on board to accomplish this, pumping more so than smart betters ever could on their own.
5.) The smart betters, being not-fucking-retards-that-worship-Nate-Silver, exit here having made good money pre-Hillary pump. Seeing that things are stable and PI users are hooked to an IV drip of fake polls, fabricated scandals about Trump, and asleep at the wheel throw those earnings into cheap, cheap TRUMP odds.
6.) Mfw literally at 9PM on election night on PI, Florida or whatever state results come in and BOOM, the 11th hour reversal is complete and Hillary / Trump odds reverse to where they finally end 0% / 100%. Bernie bros yet again go back on food stamps and pay day loans.
7.) OP makes himself a salt mine margarita and gets smashed in celebration.
Great breakdown! I was betting that Trump wouldn’t be impeached in 2017 and making over 60% annualized return from the idiot leftists. Just took all of my money out bought my first handgun with the profit
Leftists who are going to be broke leftists: https://twitter.com/Bob69Barker420/status/1320706145049321473
Nice. I actually signed up for an account a few weeks ago but haven’t placed any bets. Will keep an eye on the odds
Predictit is like 98% MSM watching TDS inflicted retards.
There is a huge user bias on predictit toward technology savvy liberals vs actual rural Trump supporter.
What are you referring to from today? The GDP growth or is there something else today that I missed?
New poll shows 31% black America vote for trump
I put money on Trump at $3 odds.
He is still at like $2.75.
Im not 100% sure he will win but it is at least 50:50
Are you just taking Trump straight or trying to hit a certain number of electoral votes? +110 on the incumbent right now is looking extra juicy. Imo, free money. Might have to set some bets
Haven't wagered on the electoral votes yet. I assume that will drop in the coming days and I might buy up then.
$850 per market. Nice!
Do you remember what the odds were on the morning of the election in 2016? Keep trying to find this to see how wrong markets can be.
Your map looks correct. I am on the same page as you
Same as well.
Same here.
Same, except I think we’re winning New York
I think New York is in play. We will get the Jewish vote and that may be enough to turn NY red.
I don't think he'll get the jewish vote though. I'm not in new york nor can understand how the jewish vote could go democrat anyway.
Guys, guys. Let’s stay realistic here. While most NY counties are based NYC is so unbelievably cucked and solidifies a dem victory. VA is more of a realistic win than NY
I like it, but I think we win New Mexico because of Biden energy comments and no serious Independent/Libertarian candidate.
Right for the wrong reasons, it wasn't libertarianism that appealed to NM, it was Johnson in particulars popularity as governor.
Ya. My parents liked johnson also as they experienced his governorship. (They still voted trump in 16) Johnson helped pass no tax on food in this state which is fucking awesome.
Trump would have won it last time if not for the stupid ex governor running lib
Trump flips New York.
(I have nothing concrete to base this on but give me precious up votes if I am right and angry down votes if wrong).
Ok here is my very very thin reasoning:
People fled new york city in huge numbers, they lost something like 40% of their population. This will affect their voting turnout and this the rest of the state will have far greater influence then normal.
Also enough people who live in New York are mad at their dem leaders to punish them by not voting for them or voting for the other party.
Finally, Dems are spending no time or money on new york as its "soild blue" and also no money for fraud.
Trump is a new yorker and if your city is broken and you know for a fact someone who would fix it, hire them.
Anyway, you heard it here first. Trump flips the state of his birth.
They do commit major fraud in NYC. See the project veritas videos from 2016. They bus people around to different polling stations. Been doing it for 50 years
they lost 40% of their population in what? The last year?? holy shit
The 40% number comes from preliminary census reporting data. NYC has about 60% reporting. That and the uhuals have been sold out for months. Flight from the city due to covid, lockdowns, and riots/violence is very real and while many will return next year, this election will be affected even with vote by mail and fraud.
At the very least it really was 400k people in 2020 alone that left, and that was already continuing a trend of 800k since 2014 I think.
Lost temporarily... probably, but the flight out of the city for covid and lockdowns was real and the 40% number comes from only 60% of the city filled in census data report I read a month or so ago. The city dwellers will come back next year but even with vote by mail this desertion of the city has to affect things.
“Because of COVID deaths, you animal!”
l have decided many days ago that l'm going to cry if, indeed, NY turns red.
One of the scary wildcards I haven't heard anyone talk about is where did those New Yorkers go? Well, the rich ones went to their place in the Hamptons. The young ones moved back in with their parents in Pennsylvania. The older ones accelerated their exodus to Florida. Am I far off? If not, that's shitty news for the election.
Did they reregister though or are they still registered in new york but their ballot is at their old address and they are too scared of covid to go back?
Sad Virginia noises
Keep your chin up, vote, and pray.
I am hopeful.
Governor Doctor Blackface Mengele Coonman Northam poked the hell out of a hornet's nest.
Up here in NoVa the mailers from Republican candidates are almost unabashedly conservative in contrast to the kind of mealy-mouth demotard-lite crap we always got from Tom Davis, Frank Wolf, and Barbara Comstock.
I was really hoping to see something terrible drop about Warner since he is dirty as hell on the collusion bullshit, but it looks like the clock ran out on that.
Now now, let's be fair.... he might have been the one in the KKK robes.
predictit.org
Doesn’t predictit have an $850 betting limit?
Yes, for each market.
I don't know about predictit, but bovada has a standard $5k limit, but allows you to get an exception to bet higher. I'm not sure what their criteria is though, because I only bet $1k on the election.
They also bone you on withdrawing your winnings.
How so?
How so? Did you not read the terms of their site? Lmao https://predictingpolitics.com/predictit-basics/
There are other ways too, including crypto.
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
Buy Bitcoin or ETH on crypto exchange (like Coinbase, Kraken), send to FTX, bet on Trump options. At the moment it's at $0.372 and goes to $1 if Trump wins.
This is the most realistic prediction. My map, however, if much more delusional than this
It sounds so ridiculous, but when you look at election participation historically - it's completely possible. Each year for decades it's been about 50% of the eligible voting population shows up to vote. Hmmm, what if, even just 15% of that missing population came out of the woodwork one year suddenly?
Imagine this virus completely fucks your normie life and for the first time ever you pay attention to politics...but the news seems pretty contradictory, and things were pretty good prior to the virus. You also can't eat out, go to church, or work properly anymore, but these rioters everywhere can do whatever the hell they want.
The loud orange man seems pretty confident he can get it back to normal again, and the Democrat old man seems more like your father you put in the nursing home last year than an actual world leader material.
Hmmmm.
It's not that simple. Plenty of liberals in California would stay home as well in past years because "the outcome is inevitable." But they'll be inclined to vote more this year for the same reason as Republicans.
The idea of California flipping is completely ridiculous by the way. Has about the same chance of happening as West Virginia choosing Biden. See how ridiculous it is to say "what if, even just 15% of those missing liberals in West Virginia came out and flipped the state"?
No I don't see it, because you fail to specify where the 15% comes from. Who do you think votes more in blue California year to year, over the last 40 years: urban Democrats, or rural Republicans?
If Trump actually was in some alternate reality doing a terrible job, West Virgina could easily flip blue. "WV would never flip blue even with more blue voters" is some pretty fucking dumb logic especially considering WVs pop is way smaller than heavy LA urban city centers.
lmao
Mine is the real map. Jeb! wins every state.
please clap
flip all the states!
50 - 0
I'd eat my MAGA hat if OR ever flipped. Seems super longshot.
I've heard murmurings about CO flipping though, you're not the only one saying that.
Colorado in 2016 was a GOP fustercluck.
The Senate candidate literally was the first guy to call for Trump to exit the race when the bombshell recording of "grab them by the pussy" broke. It split the party unity and we had a huge undervote.
Also Colorado was ground zero for the Never Trumpers. Our state delegation actually walked out of the RNC nomination assembly.
This time, our top state Candidate, Sen Gardner is 100% Trump, and the Never Trumpers have shut the hell up. Denver has pushed the BLM crap too far, and a red tide is over due.
Oh man, that'd be great news. I'd honestly written off CO up to this point. CO should be purple but I thought there were too many hippies, cucks, and Californians there now.
If this is correct, and I pray to God that this is the case, we must force the lying and corrupt media and polling industry out of business after November 3rd. There is no commercial room in society for people who make money based on lies, fraud, and election interference.
Amen
That's pretty much the way I see it too! Maybe NM and MN going the other way, or same for both????
Flipping MN would be huge since it hasn't happened since 1972. Hopefully the "summer of love" has made people rethink their allegiance to the DFL party.
Bruh who bets $20,000 on an election?
All of us, but not all of us know it up front.
Your comment took me a second. Well done.
Ouch.
Extremely wealthy people. No different from a $20,000 bet on a hand of blackjack or horse races. It's just play money to them (and/or a gambling addiction).
I'm unsure if he'll get Nevada, but agree on everything else
Nevada is rigged
We are gonna win big! (And so are you)
Nice. I have $10k on the same map minus NV, MN, NH. Let's go.
Safe bets. Good luck!!!
Thanks!
Are you betting on states or just the presidency?
Both.
Nice! Good luck!
How are you betting that much on predictit? The way I see it, there are 6 proxy presidential bets.. with $850 cap total, that's only 5100 you can wager
Wager on president, states, margin of victory, senate, house, etc.
You're going to have some extra money in your pocket on election night! Let's win this!!!
Why is Maine half and half? Always wanted to look it up.
They split their electoral votes by congressional district somehow
State law determines how they do electoral votes.
Good luck!
Good luck, pede!
Thanks!
I bet all the rust belts. Got most at 3 or 4 to 1.
I put $200 on a win in New Mexico yesterday, hope you’re right!
I like your optimism! I should have bet $2,000!
If only WA state could be red. :( Map looks great and pretty dang on it.
I think he takes AZ too.... Biden enthusiasm is just too low this time... under performing Hillary.
So are you predicting 1 for Trump out of Maine?
Did you bet online ? if so ,which website did you use ? ( asking for a fren )
predictit.org
Man I’m just hoping to win fifty bucks lol.
predictit.org
Do you buy shares? I don’t understand the betting
You buy the shares, and each share pays out at a dollar if you win. So the odds shift as the market for each bet settles on a price.
If you buy a "Trump wins" contract for 40 cents, then another person has taken the opposite contract for "Biden wins" at 60 cents.
This way the market is setting the odds, rather than a bookie trying to balance his action.
Ohhh. Ok. Thank u.
With this model Trump could lose the entire blue wall and still win.
If Biden sweeps the rust belt he probably takes NH though
I think Hawaii will flip
Nah, Hawaiians have drunk the Kool-Aid too much.
If they were smart, they would flip - God knows they are suffering more than most states due to their Scamdemic measures. Hawai'i is more economically dependent on tourism than any other state, but their tourism has been essentially zero for months.
But I don't think they will. I'd love to be wrong about that, though.
It's crazy how many Americans want to have their lives ruled rather than rule their lives.
I'm not sure about that, but I'm going in with the mentality of "everything is in play, except D.C."
No way. From what I understand, Hawaiian culture is completely suffused with leftist values. Resentment, racism, laziness, entitlement, arrogance. It might as well be Greece. If Hawaii ever flips red, I'll eat my flex tape.
It really looks like my long shot "Biden Drops out by Nov 1st" bet isn't going to come through. As much as I would have liked making x16 on a bet, I really didn't expect it to.
I'm not familiar enough with other states to bet on the map, but I'm pretty confident of my positions on national markets, and on my local state's markets. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be getting another nice rifle this year, paid for and powered by Democrat tears.
Shoulda bet drops dead by Jan 20.
My map is the exact same except I had NH cuck and go blue
It wouldn't shock me though fi Trump just dominates and wins CO and NM in addition to blue wall and NH. In the end the Dems are only left with woke elitist coastal states for the most part.
Great map, Pede.
I have all your states, plus said "fuck it" and bet on the Norpoth Model as well.
Good luck!
I have the exact same map, minus MN, been looking at every state closely.
I've gone deep. 362 as my sweet spot. If it comes in, I'm getting a new car. (Not a very good one, but still.)
326 is a good number, I might bet on that.
Where you betting on?!?!? Cuz I'm about to put a wad of cad on DJT.
CO going red bro
Between fraud and Hispanics, that is a rough get.
NM and CO are possible, but I'll only buy on election day if I have a really good feeling and prices drop to less than ten cents.
wait less than ten cents that he wins? Or do you mean for the Dems?
It means if he bets $100, he’ll get $1,000 if they flip
If NM and CO go less than ten cents on election day and I have a good feeling about them, I might buy NM and CO.
yeah i was thinking of waiting until a day or 2 before the election and then maybe dump a bunch of money on safe bets like Ohio or Michigan. What do you think?
Do you remember what the odds of Trump win were on election morning ?
I bet €2500 to win €4000 profit. €6500 total. Let’s hope.. Support from Netherlands!
Props to the foreign pedes out there! Here's hoping that a Trumpism (Brexit and whatnot) can strike the Netherlands. Y'all seem pretty chill, but Liberty, Patriotism, and Excellence need know no borders. May the Kek be with you!
Sorry for your lost pede fren, no way you could have known the extent of the fraud.
Haven't lost, only won less. MI, WI, AZ, NV still pending.