DNC 'this year' heard a earful from the 2016 Hillary campaign about not getting yard signs out for Hillary... - they then went the extra mile to push signs out to China Joe supporters for 2020.
consider EVERY YARD WITHOUT A BIDEN SIGN>>> IS A TRUMP SUPPORTER.
I'm still holding out on NV and MN. it all depends on if locals are finally fed up with their leaders. NM I highly doubt. too many illegals and illegal sympathizers there. It'll be medium-blue at best. Delaware? nah. VA? LOL No. NOVA is full of swamp. Otherwise the rest looks good
In 2016, Hillary's Election Day morning polls averaged 7% inflation in her support.
On the assumption that this inflation is very likely to be even worse for Quid Pro Joe, I slashed 7% support from his totals, gave 6% to Trump, and threw away the odd 1%.
I also took the undecided totals and gave those to Trump.
My baseline polls were taken from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections, which takes an average of the 3 most recent polls in each state. It reflects the current publicly available suppression polls.
Needless to say, this method produced some surprising results. Is it too optimistic? What factors did I fail to consider? I'm eager to hear criticism of all kinds. Except the faggoty kind, obviously.
Play up trump in trump-heavy states to reduce trump turnout
Play down trump in biden-heavy and/or purple states to make Trump look like a doofus and increase Biden enthusiasm, make him appear more legitimate nationwide
the latter is what i think was employed in huge margins (as you say, on avg 7%) in 2016 for Crooked Hillary... but i could see them being more careful with it this time around
fair enough. totally agree on the anecdotal evidence. unprecedented R turnout in early voting, with 71% of R's still yet to vote according to some random statement i read somewhere here on .win
yuge crowds, yuger than '16
the # of trump signs around here is orders of magnitude more than in '16
trump freaking destroyed biden in that second debate
and then there's all the biden malarkey that came out
trump's got it in the bag, if the election is legitimate
There is no way that Slow Joe outperforms Obama and Bubba, which he would if these polls were accurate.
? Are you saying pollsters have him outperforming OBAMA from '08?
it doesn't really work that way - you have to dive deep into the poll methodology - CA for example wasn't 7% too high for HC in 2016 - you can't just give a 7% haircut to all states. PA for instance, in 2016 pollsters inaccurately weighted non-college graduates. Today, they are under sampling "did not previously vote" as likely voters. It is a very state specific thing.
Well, take Virginia, for example: I'm definitely not making any allowances for federal government workers. I'm also not accounting for a massive shift with black voters everywhere.
No GA? We won GA in 2016, don't see how we'd have lost ground there. CO is definetly the longest shot, but I think NV could be in play seeing as how the only democrat part of NV is Las Vegas, and the Democrat lockdowns have put them into an existential crisis.
i don't think winning NM is completely out of reach. In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson got 9.3% (!!) of the vote in NM. Trump got 40%, Hillary got 48.2%. I'm betting most Libertarian-leaning people would choose Trump over Biden. NM also has a HUGE oil/gas industry, so I can't imagine those people wanting the Green New Deal...
NV and CO are definitely possible based on official data showing early ballot and in person voting trends. VA is also not impossible. DE early voting is actually anemic. NH is also below par.
NM would require some DEM cross-voting. Some polls have showed it very close.
I think this scenario is indeed a possibility.
Incidentally, early voting in NY is also significantly below par. Especially when compared to other New England states. My hunch is it will be far closer than what the polls are suggesting.
I've got $50 on CO going red. The air just feels different here. Like the silent and mean silent majority is growing. I know a lot of people afraid to speak in support or even nicely about Trump for fear of backlash. I've had my Trump sticker vandalized and another buddies truck has been keyed a lot. But a lot of people I know that abstained or went 3rd party last time are voting Trump.
The closer we get to election day the more Biden signs I am seeing in my neighborhood in Phoenix. I think its going to be close down here.
Media brainwashing over years is how.
I saw them all pop up at once a month ago, did the campaign do a sign push or something? My opinion of my neighborhood has gone way down recently.
my friend noticed that dozens of Biden signs suddenly popped up in our area the day before Biden came to town for a campaign stop... hmm...
DNC 'this year' heard a earful from the 2016 Hillary campaign about not getting yard signs out for Hillary... - they then went the extra mile to push signs out to China Joe supporters for 2020.
consider EVERY YARD WITHOUT A BIDEN SIGN>>> IS A TRUMP SUPPORTER.
Ditto. Went from 100% Trump signs to many Biden signs.
Kind of worried tbh, and mostly about McSally.
Signs don't vote.
We Do!
RED WAVE!!!!
If there was no cheating he would win every state. Guaranteed
I'm still holding out on NV and MN. it all depends on if locals are finally fed up with their leaders. NM I highly doubt. too many illegals and illegal sympathizers there. It'll be medium-blue at best. Delaware? nah. VA? LOL No. NOVA is full of swamp. Otherwise the rest looks good
I could almost see VA, Northrup was pissing off western VA long before COVID hit, and he only made things worse for himself this year.
Methodology:
In 2016, Hillary's Election Day morning polls averaged 7% inflation in her support.
On the assumption that this inflation is very likely to be even worse for Quid Pro Joe, I slashed 7% support from his totals, gave 6% to Trump, and threw away the odd 1%.
I also took the undecided totals and gave those to Trump.
My baseline polls were taken from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections, which takes an average of the 3 most recent polls in each state. It reflects the current publicly available suppression polls.
Needless to say, this method produced some surprising results. Is it too optimistic? What factors did I fail to consider? I'm eager to hear criticism of all kinds. Except the faggoty kind, obviously.
the thing i could see happening is that they targeted their poll manipulation this time, so your 7% might not pan out where it counts.
but i pray you're right...
Meaning they would target it AWAY from the large swing states, like Penn.?
something like that... i could see
the latter is what i think was employed in huge margins (as you say, on avg 7%) in 2016 for Crooked Hillary... but i could see them being more careful with it this time around
Other than these published polls, literally EVERYTHING points to a Trump win.
There is no way that Slow Joe outperforms Obama and Bubba, which he would if these polls were accurate.
fair enough. totally agree on the anecdotal evidence. unprecedented R turnout in early voting, with 71% of R's still yet to vote according to some random statement i read somewhere here on .win
yuge crowds, yuger than '16
the # of trump signs around here is orders of magnitude more than in '16
trump freaking destroyed biden in that second debate
and then there's all the biden malarkey that came out
trump's got it in the bag, if the election is legitimate
? Are you saying pollsters have him outperforming OBAMA from '08?
it doesn't really work that way - you have to dive deep into the poll methodology - CA for example wasn't 7% too high for HC in 2016 - you can't just give a 7% haircut to all states. PA for instance, in 2016 pollsters inaccurately weighted non-college graduates. Today, they are under sampling "did not previously vote" as likely voters. It is a very state specific thing.
Well, take Virginia, for example: I'm definitely not making any allowances for federal government workers. I'm also not accounting for a massive shift with black voters everywhere.
That’s pretty close to the Primary Model which predicts a 362 to 176 electoral win.
No GA? We won GA in 2016, don't see how we'd have lost ground there. CO is definetly the longest shot, but I think NV could be in play seeing as how the only democrat part of NV is Las Vegas, and the Democrat lockdowns have put them into an existential crisis.
GA is 100% going red... especially if Trump gets anywhere near 31% of the black vote.
Most local pollsters and Republican leaning pollsters think GA going blue is a joke.
i don't think winning NM is completely out of reach. In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson got 9.3% (!!) of the vote in NM. Trump got 40%, Hillary got 48.2%. I'm betting most Libertarian-leaning people would choose Trump over Biden. NM also has a HUGE oil/gas industry, so I can't imagine those people wanting the Green New Deal...
He's not winning CO and VA
Hey, I didn’t even start jerking off until I was finished with the whole map and saw the big picture.
Looks red. Source?
See above.
How about we just wait and see on Election Day I had no idea we were going to flip the rust belt and we did fuck the polls and just worry about voting
If the DEMS LOSE MINNESOTA !!!
no DNC cheating is going to alter a landslide...
But muh red mirage!
thats how i would call it
Very interesting.
NV and CO are definitely possible based on official data showing early ballot and in person voting trends. VA is also not impossible. DE early voting is actually anemic. NH is also below par.
NM would require some DEM cross-voting. Some polls have showed it very close.
I think this scenario is indeed a possibility.
Incidentally, early voting in NY is also significantly below par. Especially when compared to other New England states. My hunch is it will be far closer than what the polls are suggesting.
Delaware? C’mon man!
NV is unknowable this time, a lot of CA people moving in.
NM is nuts, could go either way.
CO will be close, but I don’t know if we’ll pull it off.
VA would be a huge flip. If that happens we won’t need to wait on the west coast. The other possible monster-surprise would be OR.
MN might be close. The rest of the Great Lakes states feel like a lock (excluding IL)
we might lose NH to VT/MA influence.
I AM SO PUMPED
Virginia?
I hope this is the case. I also would like to see CO red again, but not holding out hope for that particular case... and I hope to be wrong.
I'm hoping California turns red
is the House in play? Hardly any polling
Lack of polling is a clue. Also GEOTUS said several time during the third debates he believed Rs would take the house. The house is definetly in play.
Virginia is a longshot.
New Mexico will turn red in 2026.
Colorado longshot.
Colorado and Virginia aint red fren.
Agree with everything else tho
I've got $50 on CO going red. The air just feels different here. Like the silent and mean silent majority is growing. I know a lot of people afraid to speak in support or even nicely about Trump for fear of backlash. I've had my Trump sticker vandalized and another buddies truck has been keyed a lot. But a lot of people I know that abstained or went 3rd party last time are voting Trump.