it doesn't really work that way - you have to dive deep into the poll methodology - CA for example wasn't 7% too high for HC in 2016 - you can't just give a 7% haircut to all states. PA for instance, in 2016 pollsters inaccurately weighted non-college graduates. Today, they are under sampling "did not previously vote" as likely voters. It is a very state specific thing.
Well, take Virginia, for example: I'm definitely not making any allowances for federal government workers. I'm also not accounting for a massive shift with black voters everywhere.
it doesn't really work that way - you have to dive deep into the poll methodology - CA for example wasn't 7% too high for HC in 2016 - you can't just give a 7% haircut to all states. PA for instance, in 2016 pollsters inaccurately weighted non-college graduates. Today, they are under sampling "did not previously vote" as likely voters. It is a very state specific thing.
Well, take Virginia, for example: I'm definitely not making any allowances for federal government workers. I'm also not accounting for a massive shift with black voters everywhere.