Someone poke a hole in this theory so I can sleep better.
What if republicans, being generally more responsible people and having to work on election day, filled out more absentee ballot than expected and R turnout on election day is going to be less than expected?
I voted that way for that reason. I went to city hall in and did early in person voting on a day off just have have it over with and not have to worry about meetings on Nov 3 and missing it or getting caught in lines. Anecdotal evidence only.
check out that website and look at votes alrdy casted compared to active voter registration numbers. in almost all county dems led in that. Meaning far more dems have alrdy voted than Republicans. Like plam beach 60% of the registered dems alrdy voted. Compared to 50% of Republicans. That's the case for most counties.
on the website https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
scroll down to box that says early votes: All and click that. Then scroll up to the box with
Vote totals (IPEV + VBM)
and the number i see there is 166,016. That's the total votes so far and that's dems leading. Which it was 250k yesterday so it's going down fast and we could see going into election day Rs having a decent lead
also to poke a hole in your theory with many R not turning out on election day due having work etc and they will rather vote early in person. while in 2016 on election day in FL Republicans had 200k more election day votes then dems nothing other than covid is different this time around and we can expect even greater R turnout on election day this time around and lesser Dem turnout on election day itself as so many alrdy voted by mail. so unless going into election day dems have a decent lead like 200-300k+ we got the state imo. Dems lead is now down to 164,592 as we are stomping them with early in person voting
Someone poke a hole in this theory so I can sleep better.
What if republicans, being generally more responsible people and having to work on election day, filled out more absentee ballot than expected and R turnout on election day is going to be less than expected?
I voted that way for that reason. I went to city hall in and did early in person voting on a day off just have have it over with and not have to worry about meetings on Nov 3 and missing it or getting caught in lines. Anecdotal evidence only.
Thoughts?
check out that website and look at votes alrdy casted compared to active voter registration numbers. in almost all county dems led in that. Meaning far more dems have alrdy voted than Republicans. Like plam beach 60% of the registered dems alrdy voted. Compared to 50% of Republicans. That's the case for most counties.
on the website https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ scroll down to box that says early votes: All and click that. Then scroll up to the box with Vote totals (IPEV + VBM) and the number i see there is 166,016. That's the total votes so far and that's dems leading. Which it was 250k yesterday so it's going down fast and we could see going into election day Rs having a decent lead
wrong from the numbers i see
also to poke a hole in your theory with many R not turning out on election day due having work etc and they will rather vote early in person. while in 2016 on election day in FL Republicans had 200k more election day votes then dems nothing other than covid is different this time around and we can expect even greater R turnout on election day this time around and lesser Dem turnout on election day itself as so many alrdy voted by mail. so unless going into election day dems have a decent lead like 200-300k+ we got the state imo. Dems lead is now down to 164,592 as we are stomping them with early in person voting