I decided to go over the 2016 election results in Oregon. Any other year or circumstance that isn't Reagan '84 would have the state go blue easy. It was made public last month that the Trump campaign is moving some ad purchases to Oregon.

This has really gone under-the-radar, and if it's a sleeper red state, Trump will not risk it by visiting and causing the Democratic party there to respond with a massive GOTV or fraud operation. Strategically, barely touching the state overtly helps the GOP.

Looking over the 2016 data, Trump lost the state by about 220,000 votes out of just over 2mil total voters. Hillary got 50.1% and Trump got 39.1%.

It's pretty clear that Portland (Multnomah County) is hard blue and the surroundings suburbs are pretty blue as well, but the one directly south of the city (Clackamas County) had a result with Trump losing by a difference of under 7%.

It's silly to assume that a few protests or riots would flip a district a color beyond 10%, but in the case of Portland they've been rioting for 160+ days and ANTIFA has caused immense damage to the city. The mayor has basically fled. A batshit crazy SJW woman is likely to win the election there. Oregon can only go so far left before it snaps.

It's pretty clear that the outskirts of the Portland surburbs turned relatively red or light blue in 2016, and they collectively have enough competitive numbers to turn the state into a tossup (Marion, Benton, Linn).

Ya'll think it's probable?