Hey KRM, I’m just gonna ride on your comment for a second.
Guys, you all are saying “fake!! Fake!!” And this isn’t exactly true. This is an estimate. It says so in the title, it says so in the picture, I’ve said it everywhere. The point of this slide is to show what is currently projected through early voting trends and other statistics.
Early voting for FL ends on 10/31. Two days. Based on current trends, on that date we should see republican votes with 40%, and democrat votes at 39%. Please to not mistake this with Trump-Biden votes, however they are the best general indicator of what is going on.
1,777,188 mail ballots have not yet been returned.
Of those, this is how the voter REGISTERED, not how they voted:
3,341,690 (36.47%) Republican
3,725,877 (40.66%) Democrat
125,219 (1.37%) Other party
1,970,069 (21.50%) No party affiliation
You can look at the subtotals at the page, and you'll notice that Democrats have an edge in by-mail voting (both in ballots counted, and ballots outstanding), while Republicans have the edge in in-person early voting.
There are three more days of early voting remaining (10/29, 30, 31). One might be able to predict the trend by looking at how the data is changing.
Second, based on your edit, when was this page last updated? I’m getting completely different data from NBC. Shows republicans 38 to democrats 41. Maybe your info was more recent than mine, idk.
Huh. NBC uploads their stats not long before that. Either NBC is off or this site is off, and I have a hard time believing NBC would give me false republican-leaning data.
I'm citing the top level data, after importing it into Excel.
One possible difference: I calculated the percentages based on the total number of ballots (including unreturned ones). If I only count the returned mail ballots and in-person early voting:
Republican: 2,787,723 (37.75%)
Democrat: 2,992,000 (40.51%)
Other party: 95,904 (1.30%)
No party affiliation:: 1,510,040 (20.45%)
All of this should be current as of close of business yesterday, as counties are required to report by 8:00 AM the next day. But, the website is updated again several times a day to include any late reports:
Each county is only required to report to the Division of Elections once a day by 8 a.m. (local time) reflecting the prior day’s vote-by-mail and early voting activity. The Department of State then makes the information available online by 9 a.m. (Eastern Time) In the event a county report is not uploaded in the first window, the website is refreshed at noon, 3 p.m., and 6 p.m. (Eastern Time) to capture any outstanding county report subsequently uploaded so that all 67 county reports are reflected in the statewide consolidated file by day’s end.
OOHHHHH. Yea, I’m taking this off of returned data. Now our data lines up.
There are some people who will request the ballot but don’t actually end up voting with it. For some reason, it’s especially democrats who don’t seem to be doing that. Maybe it’s laziness?
There are 1.7M unreturned ballots. I don't know when they must be mailed, but the page I cited says they will continue to count ballots arriving by mail for up to 15 days.
It’s based on early voting data from registered democrats and republicans. Currently there’s really no way to tell which candidate is doing better, the margin is small enough that defecting voters and unaffiliated could make a difference.
This is of course different from Texas. Where Trump is up like over 10 points guaranteed looking at the early vote.
It’s an estimate dumbass, republicans are currently 38% to democrat 41%. However, the democrat lead has been shrinking by a percent every day. Early voting ends in three days.
I am wondering if they are merely counting registered democrat verses registered republicans or if they are actually counting votes. If a significant number of democrats are sane and vote Trump, does that make a difference?
In the pic, you can see the democrat advantage shrinking by one % every day. This has been daily. So if there’s 38% republican, the democrat lead is shrinking by 1% each day, do the math.
I don't know, man. Doesn't that mean it's made up? I don't want to accuse you of anything, but It seems to me lots of people think this is made up, too.
You just accused me of making it up, saying "lots of people think this is made up". I'm not falling for your passive-aggressive bullshit.
There's nothing "made up" about this data. The only people that think that aren't bothering to read the original post, which clearly say it's an estimate.
And since you didn't bother to follow the link that I provided you to show the origin of the estimate, you are being willfully ignorant.
I don't know. I think this whole premise needs to be reevaluated in light of the information that some data points may be made up. Then, I can make up my mind.
I made this myself. I don’t know what that says to your claim of this being fabricated info or not, but all I can tell you at this point is that this slide is directly based off real world data and trends.
Vote like we are losing!
Numbers I saw were very very close.
Hey KRM, I’m just gonna ride on your comment for a second.
Guys, you all are saying “fake!! Fake!!” And this isn’t exactly true. This is an estimate. It says so in the title, it says so in the picture, I’ve said it everywhere. The point of this slide is to show what is currently projected through early voting trends and other statistics.
Early voting for FL ends on 10/31. Two days. Based on current trends, on that date we should see republican votes with 40%, and democrat votes at 39%. Please to not mistake this with Trump-Biden votes, however they are the best general indicator of what is going on.
This is based on voter registration data, not actual votes.
Spez, for people that cannot comprehend the data:
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
So far (as of 11:10 AM on 10/29):
Of those, this is how the voter REGISTERED, not how they voted:
You can look at the subtotals at the page, and you'll notice that Democrats have an edge in by-mail voting (both in ballots counted, and ballots outstanding), while Republicans have the edge in in-person early voting.
There are three more days of early voting remaining (10/29, 30, 31). One might be able to predict the trend by looking at how the data is changing.
Second, based on your edit, when was this page last updated? I’m getting completely different data from NBC. Shows republicans 38 to democrats 41. Maybe your info was more recent than mine, idk.
It's on the page that I linked and cited (and near the top of my post): 10/29/2020 11:10 AM.
Huh. NBC uploads their stats not long before that. Either NBC is off or this site is off, and I have a hard time believing NBC would give me false republican-leaning data.
I'm citing the top level data, after importing it into Excel.
One possible difference: I calculated the percentages based on the total number of ballots (including unreturned ones). If I only count the returned mail ballots and in-person early voting:
All of this should be current as of close of business yesterday, as counties are required to report by 8:00 AM the next day. But, the website is updated again several times a day to include any late reports:
I don't know where NBC is getting their data.
OOHHHHH. Yea, I’m taking this off of returned data. Now our data lines up.
There are some people who will request the ballot but don’t actually end up voting with it. For some reason, it’s especially democrats who don’t seem to be doing that. Maybe it’s laziness?
There are 1.7M unreturned ballots. I don't know when they must be mailed, but the page I cited says they will continue to count ballots arriving by mail for up to 15 days.
It’s based on early voting data from registered democrats and republicans. Currently there’s really no way to tell which candidate is doing better, the margin is small enough that defecting voters and unaffiliated could make a difference.
This is of course different from Texas. Where Trump is up like over 10 points guaranteed looking at the early vote.
It’s an estimate dumbass, republicans are currently 38% to democrat 41%. However, the democrat lead has been shrinking by a percent every day. Early voting ends in three days.
Fuck off doomerfag.
I am wondering if they are merely counting registered democrat verses registered republicans or if they are actually counting votes. If a significant number of democrats are sane and vote Trump, does that make a difference?
This is just republican democrat. The Libertarian vote is based off national polling avg’s.
Yes, this is based on party registration. It doesn't account for crossovers from either party.
We don’t have that data yet. I think it comes out on Election night, I’m not sure though.
in come broward county with 6,000,000 found votes
I think DeSantis is on it. Based FL Governor won’t let that shit happen.
EARLY is key...many Republicans will vote in-person. It’s not over until it’s over though.
Early voting in the state of Florida ends on October 31. Looking at current voting trends, we can estimate the end result.
FL is going red. You can bet on that.
This is literally just made up. It’s close but democrats are up .75% in early voting Florida
FOR THE LAST TIME. IT’S AN ESTIMATE!!!!!!! IM GONNA LOSE IT WITH YOU GUYS!
This is when the cheating starts.
Frauding a vote is silencing an American Voice.
This should be prosecuted as life in prison or the death penalty.
I do not believe democrats will have an easy time cheating with DeSantis in charge.
This looks made up, dude.
AAAHHHHH YOU GUYS ARE MESSING WITH ME NOW!!
What gave you that idea? Lol.
You all keep saying the same thing but I’ve explained this a million times!
I don't know dude. You got a source?
Well for starters, here’s my post a few hours ago based on real early voting numbers, as shown on NBC.
https://thedonald.win/p/11PW36FwPw/joe-your-lead-in-florida-is-shri/c/
In the pic, you can see the democrat advantage shrinking by one % every day. This has been daily. So if there’s 38% republican, the democrat lead is shrinking by 1% each day, do the math.
It's based on voter party affiliation on their registration:
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
I don't know, man. Doesn't that mean it's made up? I don't want to accuse you of anything, but It seems to me lots of people think this is made up, too.
You just accused me of making it up, saying "lots of people think this is made up". I'm not falling for your passive-aggressive bullshit.
There's nothing "made up" about this data. The only people that think that aren't bothering to read the original post, which clearly say it's an estimate.
And since you didn't bother to follow the link that I provided you to show the origin of the estimate, you are being willfully ignorant.
Have a nice day.
I didn't accuse you of making anything up. That part you are making up.
No. It means it’s based off the best election data we have available.
Someone must have made it up, then.
Where is your line of thought? Are you referring to the voters? You’re damn confusing me.
I don't know. I think this whole premise needs to be reevaluated in light of the information that some data points may be made up. Then, I can make up my mind.
I made this myself. I don’t know what that says to your claim of this being fabricated info or not, but all I can tell you at this point is that this slide is directly based off real world data and trends.