Texas doesn't have party affiliation at the time you register. If you vote in a primary, attend a state convention, or sign a candidate's petition you will be affiliated with that party for the remainder of the election cycle (so you can't vote in the other party's primary).
If you didn't do any of those things, you won't be affiliated. So, I would be hesitant to ascribe any significance to party ID.
Since the vast majority of people don't attend state conventions or sign petitions, that would seem to indicate about 53% of Texans voted for Trump in the primary. Not likely they've changed affiliation since then.
Doesn't eliminate the possibility of voter fraud, so we need to stay vigilant, but that's a tough gap to close, even with fraud.
Whoa. I stand corrected. That's downright bizarre, but I'm still optimistic. One would assume the vast majority of Texans didn't vote in the primary because they knew President Trump would get the nomination hands down, and so didn't bother. It's a much weaker argument, but it could be that Texans are fired up--and don't want to put a mask on to go to the polls. I have to admit, if I suspected I might have to mask up to vote, I might be tempted to take my chances with a mail-in ballot.
Either way, the discrepancy between the primaries and election is more than enough to raise suspicion. Something's rotten in the state of Texas.
No, there's nothing nefarious in the difference between primaries and the general election. It's always been that way. You can look at the historical election results:
In 2016, there were 15,101,087 registered voters. With 16,955,519 registered voters in 2020, that's a 12.28% increase in registered voters. It shouldn't be surprising to see more votes cast this year.
t wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
It's actually about 22%, not 45%, if you compare early voting data. I just downloaded it from both party primaries back in March. Only about 50% of all voters in the primaries voted early. I don't have voter registration numbers for people that voted on primary election day (2020-03-03), so I can't compare them.
Otherwise, I did exactly what I described above: matched the voter registration number. This is what I found:
11.08% of the early voters in the general election voted early in the Republican primary.
10.00% of the early voters in the general election voted early in the Democrat primary
78.92% of the early voters in the general election did not vote early in the party primaries.
I'll rerun my analysis after the last day of in-person early voting is reported tomorrow. I'm also planning to look at the breakdown of in-person vs. mail-in voting.
A final caution: this analysis is based only on participation in a party primary. It cannot account for people that voted in one party's primary, then voted for the other party in the general election. It could occur for at least two reasons:
The voter doesn't like the candidate that won their party primary.
A voter normally affiliated with one party "crossed over" to vote in the other party's primary in order to promote a weaker candidate.
You can pull up the last set of primary results (2020-03-03) here:
My point wasn't about the distribution of primary voters, because as you point out: the Republican primary was essentially uncontested. If you look at 2016, you'll see the distribution is quite a bit different:
The point that people aren't getting: every voter in Texas is considered unaffiliated, until they vote in a primary, sign a candidate's petition, or attend a party's convention. Then, they become affiliated for the remainder of the calendar year for one purpose: so they can't vote in the other party's primary (or any runoffs). At the end of the year, the affiliation automatically expires.
This is the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:
The fact that you voted in a party primary is public information. In particular, you'll be listed on the voting roster if you vote early. I explain how to find that information here:
It wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
Therefore, any party ID assignment is based on some hand-waving, not any real tabulation. As I wrote: the commonly cited source says that party ID is estimated from other sources (I think by someone named "TargetSmart").
In other words, it can be only as accurate as any other Misleadia poll.
This is not an estimate it’s a tally Of actual ballots voted by mail and in person. Does that change your view any? See nbc election section which tracks by state.
There is no actual tally of ballots, outside the Texas Secretary of State. That information is not published until after the polls have closed on Election Day.
Texas doesn't have party affiliation at the time you register. If you vote in a primary, attend a state convention, or sign a candidate's petition you will be affiliated with that party for the remainder of the election cycle (so you can't vote in the other party's primary).
If you didn't do any of those things, you won't be affiliated. So, I would be hesitant to ascribe any significance to party ID.
Since the vast majority of people don't attend state conventions or sign petitions, that would seem to indicate about 53% of Texans voted for Trump in the primary. Not likely they've changed affiliation since then.
Doesn't eliminate the possibility of voter fraud, so we need to stay vigilant, but that's a tough gap to close, even with fraud.
The source usually cited for these numbers says it estimated party ID from other sources. The problem: Most Texans don't vote in primaries.
You can pull up the last set of primary results (2020-03-03) here:
https://results.texas-election.com/races
In the Democrat primary:
In the Republican primary:
That's a bit over 4M voters, total. So far, 9M have voted in the current general election.
Trying to assign party ID to these voters is a fool's errand.
Whoa. I stand corrected. That's downright bizarre, but I'm still optimistic. One would assume the vast majority of Texans didn't vote in the primary because they knew President Trump would get the nomination hands down, and so didn't bother. It's a much weaker argument, but it could be that Texans are fired up--and don't want to put a mask on to go to the polls. I have to admit, if I suspected I might have to mask up to vote, I might be tempted to take my chances with a mail-in ballot.
Either way, the discrepancy between the primaries and election is more than enough to raise suspicion. Something's rotten in the state of Texas.
Mask are not required for in person voting thanks to Gregg Abbott.
No, there's nothing nefarious in the difference between primaries and the general election. It's always been that way. You can look at the historical election results:
https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm
In 2016, for President:
Yes, it looks like more people are voting early. But, it remains to be seen if Election Day turnout will be the same, or lower.
In 2016, of registered voters:
I posted the percentages (so far) for 2020 here: https://thedonald.win/p/11PW3D5yMc/x/c/19BtL9jFDF
In 2016, there were 15,101,087 registered voters. With 16,955,519 registered voters in 2020, that's a 12.28% increase in registered voters. It shouldn't be surprising to see more votes cast this year.
That doesn't mean there are 5 million unaffiliated voters, though.
Are those primary voting numbers from THIS year? When there essentially WASN'T a GOP presidential primary?
People went out and voted for Trump anyway.
I wrote this in my last post.
It's actually about 22%, not 45%, if you compare early voting data. I just downloaded it from both party primaries back in March. Only about 50% of all voters in the primaries voted early. I don't have voter registration numbers for people that voted on primary election day (2020-03-03), so I can't compare them.
Otherwise, I did exactly what I described above: matched the voter registration number. This is what I found:
I'll rerun my analysis after the last day of in-person early voting is reported tomorrow. I'm also planning to look at the breakdown of in-person vs. mail-in voting.
A final caution: this analysis is based only on participation in a party primary. It cannot account for people that voted in one party's primary, then voted for the other party in the general election. It could occur for at least two reasons:
Yes, it says it right in my post:
My point wasn't about the distribution of primary voters, because as you point out: the Republican primary was essentially uncontested. If you look at 2016, you'll see the distribution is quite a bit different:
https://thedonald.win/p/11PW3D5yMc/x/c/19BtLGVxuC
The point that people aren't getting: every voter in Texas is considered unaffiliated, until they vote in a primary, sign a candidate's petition, or attend a party's convention. Then, they become affiliated for the remainder of the calendar year for one purpose: so they can't vote in the other party's primary (or any runoffs). At the end of the year, the affiliation automatically expires.
This is the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2020-05.shtml
The fact that you voted in a party primary is public information. In particular, you'll be listed on the voting roster if you vote early. I explain how to find that information here:
https://thedonald.win/p/HrOutQY6/texas-pede-alert--if-you-mailed-/
It wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
Therefore, any party ID assignment is based on some hand-waving, not any real tabulation. As I wrote: the commonly cited source says that party ID is estimated from other sources (I think by someone named "TargetSmart").
In other words, it can be only as accurate as any other Misleadia poll.
Trump had 1.8+ million more votes in the primary than Biden , Warren, and Sanders combined. Just a tidbit to calm the nerves.
This is not an estimate it’s a tally Of actual ballots voted by mail and in person. Does that change your view any? See nbc election section which tracks by state.
There is no actual tally of ballots, outside the Texas Secretary of State. That information is not published until after the polls have closed on Election Day.
Anyone who claims otherwise is lying to you.