t wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
It's actually about 22%, not 45%, if you compare early voting data. I just downloaded it from both party primaries back in March. Only about 50% of all voters in the primaries voted early. I don't have voter registration numbers for people that voted on primary election day (2020-03-03), so I can't compare them.
Otherwise, I did exactly what I described above: matched the voter registration number. This is what I found:
11.08% of the early voters in the general election voted early in the Republican primary.
10.00% of the early voters in the general election voted early in the Democrat primary
78.92% of the early voters in the general election did not vote early in the party primaries.
I'll rerun my analysis after the last day of in-person early voting is reported tomorrow. I'm also planning to look at the breakdown of in-person vs. mail-in voting.
A final caution: this analysis is based only on participation in a party primary. It cannot account for people that voted in one party's primary, then voted for the other party in the general election. It could occur for at least two reasons:
The voter doesn't like the candidate that won their party primary.
A voter normally affiliated with one party "crossed over" to vote in the other party's primary in order to promote a weaker candidate.
You can pull up the last set of primary results (2020-03-03) here:
My point wasn't about the distribution of primary voters, because as you point out: the Republican primary was essentially uncontested. If you look at 2016, you'll see the distribution is quite a bit different:
The point that people aren't getting: every voter in Texas is considered unaffiliated, until they vote in a primary, sign a candidate's petition, or attend a party's convention. Then, they become affiliated for the remainder of the calendar year for one purpose: so they can't vote in the other party's primary (or any runoffs). At the end of the year, the affiliation automatically expires.
This is the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:
The fact that you voted in a party primary is public information. In particular, you'll be listed on the voting roster if you vote early. I explain how to find that information here:
It wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
Therefore, any party ID assignment is based on some hand-waving, not any real tabulation. As I wrote: the commonly cited source says that party ID is estimated from other sources (I think by someone named "TargetSmart").
In other words, it can be only as accurate as any other Misleadia poll.
That doesn't mean there are 5 million unaffiliated voters, though.
Are those primary voting numbers from THIS year? When there essentially WASN'T a GOP presidential primary?
People went out and voted for Trump anyway.
That’s my point.
I wrote this in my last post.
It's actually about 22%, not 45%, if you compare early voting data. I just downloaded it from both party primaries back in March. Only about 50% of all voters in the primaries voted early. I don't have voter registration numbers for people that voted on primary election day (2020-03-03), so I can't compare them.
Otherwise, I did exactly what I described above: matched the voter registration number. This is what I found:
I'll rerun my analysis after the last day of in-person early voting is reported tomorrow. I'm also planning to look at the breakdown of in-person vs. mail-in voting.
A final caution: this analysis is based only on participation in a party primary. It cannot account for people that voted in one party's primary, then voted for the other party in the general election. It could occur for at least two reasons:
Yes, it says it right in my post:
My point wasn't about the distribution of primary voters, because as you point out: the Republican primary was essentially uncontested. If you look at 2016, you'll see the distribution is quite a bit different:
https://thedonald.win/p/11PW3D5yMc/x/c/19BtLGVxuC
The point that people aren't getting: every voter in Texas is considered unaffiliated, until they vote in a primary, sign a candidate's petition, or attend a party's convention. Then, they become affiliated for the remainder of the calendar year for one purpose: so they can't vote in the other party's primary (or any runoffs). At the end of the year, the affiliation automatically expires.
This is the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2020-05.shtml
The fact that you voted in a party primary is public information. In particular, you'll be listed on the voting roster if you vote early. I explain how to find that information here:
https://thedonald.win/p/HrOutQY6/texas-pede-alert--if-you-mailed-/
It wouldn't take much effort with a database or even a bit of coding in Java/Python/Perl/etc. to match early primary voters to early general election voters, since the voter registration ID is included in the data. But, you would only be able to match about 45% of general election voters, at best (4M primary voters divided by 9M primary voters).
Therefore, any party ID assignment is based on some hand-waving, not any real tabulation. As I wrote: the commonly cited source says that party ID is estimated from other sources (I think by someone named "TargetSmart").
In other words, it can be only as accurate as any other Misleadia poll.