My 2020 Election Prediction — I'm thinking almost the same as 2016 with two minor differences
(www.270towin.com)
MAGA
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Your map would put things exactly as 2016 had them. As long as Trump wins I suppose. It would be great if he could pick up both Minnesota and Wisconsin. I'm hoping we are pleasantly surprised. Thanks pede!
NH Red, ME2 Red,WI Red - MN "maybe, just barely"
I gave NH to Biden because I'm just not confident in much support in the Northeast.
I will add the context that I live in Illinois and go to university in Wisconsin, so I don't have a great feel for that region of the country. I could be very wrong about NH, and by golly I hope I am!
I don't see how any (serious, not MSM pundits with their 'path to 270' maps) discussion doesn't start with Trump having what he had in 2016. They really think any place Trump had in 2016 will flip Biden?
I mostly agree. I find it hard to believe many Trump supporters who voted for him last time wouldn't vote for him this time. There will be a few, sure. But I see them being outnumbered by people who didn't vote Trump and now will. Whether they were Hillary voters, Bernie Bros., non-voters, or Gary "Cuck" Johnson voters, there's a lot of options. There's also the potential gold mine in black voters waking up and smelling the MAGA in the air.
Wisconsin is the only one I just don't know about. I'm familiar with the area, and Trump has been pushing rallies in Wisconsin harder than just about any other state.
Minnesota will go for Trump. Kanye is siphoning off Dem votes. The Iron Range is red. A lot of shy Trump voters in the MN-St.Paul suburbs. (Why is Biden campaigning here at all? No Republican has won Minnesota since 1972.)
That's an astute observation pede.
why is biden campaigning in a state that oges blue every election since '72
I'm really hoping we flip MN. I've got high hopes for them. If they don't finally flip after the utter chaos in Minneapolis, I'm going to lose a massive amount of hope for this country.
Note: This is literally just my "feel" for things. I'm absolutely no political scientist or poll watcher or stable genius. Just a political junkie providing his opinion. Also, this map is ignoring potential for fraud in various (if not all) states.
whats different?
I believe Minnesota will finally flip to Trump, based on the Minneapolis rioting, positive Republican trends over the last few elections, endorsement from several Duluth area mayors, Keith Ellison trying to shut down the Trump rally tonight, and the last-minute Biden stop in the state.
I believe Wisconsin may flip back to Biden. See my comment below for my reasons why.
Why do you think Wisconsin wont go red?
I live in Illinois, but I'm currently going to university in Wisconsin. I see many Trump signs driving out here through the rural areas, but in the towns (even the smaller ones), I see too many Biden signs for comfort. I absolutely think Trump has a shot at winning Wisconsin, but out of the "big 4" being Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, I think it's the least likely to go for him.
One reason is that the lockdowns here weren't felt as hard as they were (and still are) being felt in Michigan. This is thanks to the WI Supreme Court. However, because they were knocked down so early (mid-May), I'm not sure if Wisconsin residents felt them enough to know how evil the Commies are.
I also am not sure how much of an impact the Kenosha riots will have had. I think Kenosha County will go red, but as for the state, it's really hard to tell. It really could go either way.
Ok that makes sense.
Although I think the fact you're going to university makes me think you're mostly around "college towns" which mostly vote democrat. So that may make it look like more Biden support in the state. Maybe the blue collar towns and cities with manufacturing evens out those college towns.
We'll see how it plays out. This corona thing is such a wild card that everything is in flux.
Oh yeah, the virus adds another layer alright.
The university thing is interesting... the school I'm at is actually a lot better than probably 90 percent of most college campuses. We've been allowed to do a lot on campus this semester that my friends in other schools are banned from doing because of "muh COVID".
It's just so hard to tell. They're pushing everyone to vote real hard, I know that.
California: Absolutely no chance. It trended blue more than any other state in 2016 (with the exception of Utah, but we all know why that happened).
New York: Probably not, but between the two states, it's more likely. But don't put much faith in that.
Definitely focus more on states like Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, or even Colorado or New Mexico.