He has to win 3 of the additional tossup rust-belt/mid-atlantic states - MI+MN+VA, MI+MN+PA, MI+VA+PA, or MN+VA+PA - to counter a loss of TX but I do see that as a possibility.
The question is why would he loose TX and not GA or NC as well, with similar margins for victory/defeat between these three states.
If he looses both TX and GA he can still pull off a 269 tie with Biden with a win in NV, NM, and NH.
CO, OR, or WA are potential tie breakers but that might require a more robust ground game than is currently in place; CO does have a large Trump Campaign presence so if a tie breaker can be pulled off anywhere in the TX+GA flip scenario, it would have to be there.
If big moves aren't made in TX, GA, NC, or WI in the direction towards the democrats on and after election day then we can probably assume that these states are all secure.
Although I generally agree with your concern about corruption, TX so far is looking better proportionally than it did during both 2016 and 2018 in terms of GOP turnout...as long as people are vigilant and chairman Colonel West is on top of the threat of internal corruption in the state republican party I think we should be alright; fraud can only get you so far until you run out of registrations.
TX is one of the youngest states in the union so absentee ballots based on a need for assistance is going to be lower there than in places like OH or FL, of whom have even better margins for GOP turnout.
The reason I want to keep a close eye on GA is because of the fact that registration margins in GA are tighter this year than they were in 2018 where statewide the difference between victory and defeat was a mere 50k votes.
Hispanic and black votes are also going to be wildcards in these two states, unlike MI and FL, because of different lifestyle habits and cultural preferences based on region.
The president might pull a larger black support from MI and larger Hispanic support from Fl, but black support in GA and Hispanic support from TX are going to take on completely different sets of parameters of measurement.
He has to win 3 of the additional tossup rust-belt/mid-atlantic states - MI+MN+VA, MI+MN+PA, MI+VA+PA, or MN+VA+PA - to counter a loss of TX but I do see that as a possibility.
The question is why would he loose TX and not GA or NC as well, with similar margins for victory/defeat between these three states.
If he looses both TX and GA he can still pull off a 269 tie with Biden with a win in NV, NM, and NH.
CO, OR, or WA are potential tie breakers but that might require a more robust ground game than is currently in place; CO does have a large Trump Campaign presence so if a tie breaker can be pulled off anywhere in the TX+GA flip scenario, it would have to be there.
If big moves aren't made in TX, GA, NC, or WI in the direction towards the democrats on and after election day then we can probably assume that these states are all secure.
The reason TX and not GA is because all of the money being spent to corrupt TX.
They are making moves there and not GA.
Although I generally agree with your concern about corruption, TX so far is looking better proportionally than it did during both 2016 and 2018 in terms of GOP turnout...as long as people are vigilant and chairman Colonel West is on top of the threat of internal corruption in the state republican party I think we should be alright; fraud can only get you so far until you run out of registrations.
TX is one of the youngest states in the union so absentee ballots based on a need for assistance is going to be lower there than in places like OH or FL, of whom have even better margins for GOP turnout.
The reason I want to keep a close eye on GA is because of the fact that registration margins in GA are tighter this year than they were in 2018 where statewide the difference between victory and defeat was a mere 50k votes.
Hispanic and black votes are also going to be wildcards in these two states, unlike MI and FL, because of different lifestyle habits and cultural preferences based on region.
The president might pull a larger black support from MI and larger Hispanic support from Fl, but black support in GA and Hispanic support from TX are going to take on completely different sets of parameters of measurement.