No, you are in a bubble, we are seeing a lot that looks like 2016, but nothing really that indicates any huge red wave, or smash, or massive electoral victory. We have bright spots, normal spots, and some trouble spots particularity with non party affiliated voters perhaps. Look for a nail biter.
Are you kidding me? I thought 2016 was lost and we’d see the reign of the demonic Hillary. 2016 was nothing short of a miracle.
2020 though is showing signs of a huge Trump victory. Republicans outpacing Democrats in voter registration. Hispanics trending bigly for Trump. Blacks trending for Trump. Voter enthusiasm is off the charts off Trump. Party approval rate is pushing 100%. Job approval north of 50%. Are you better today than 4 years ago numbers better than Reagan’s ‘84 landslide.
The ONLY thing Dems have are the polls. Which were manipulated in 2016 and manipulated more this year.
All Dems have left is cheating and fraud. That’s their only path to victory.
We have actual numbers to look at now, not speculation. On the ground in NC a bellwether for black votes, its 18% in support of Trump, same in GA, a bit better but no massive black support (not shocked). We are not seeing anything so huge in FL, NC, AZ, PA, GA, SC that suggest a major wave of Republicans around the corner. We have pretty decent numbers in FL, but will likely beat where we were in early and mail in voting by about 20K more than we did in 2016. Dems had +96K in FL in 2016 on election eve, Dems will only have about 60-70K advantage this year. AZ has trouble spots with independent voters in Maricopa county, the same people who elected Kristen Sinema are back, GOP are ahead of Dems but not by that many and its a big republican leaning county. Independents are exit polling in favor of Biden, in some places big. I think Trump wins this, dont get me wrong, but all the rally size, Lil Wayne, Hunter dick pics are leading people to into a bubble. I have seen nothing that indicates this election is anything other than a nail biter. We seem to have the same partisan razor thin 50/50 margin we have had since 2016 and in 2000.
Those are registered party voter numbers. What % of registered dems are voting Dem? Because 99% of repubs are voting Trump. No Libertarian split like in 2016.
Doesnt seem to be an indication of huge amount of Dems voting Trump. They can take an area of Dems (Solid Dems they know will not vote Trump) extrapolate that against numbers in other places and detect major swings. They have exit polls too, yes I know they are polls, but wrong polls use similar formulas to other wrong poll years and no major swing indication. This idea major numbers of Dems are going to vote Republican is pie in the sky.
MI looks good for Trump. Dont kid yourself though, independents are not this wild crazy crowd that is unpredictable. Any major shift with indies would reflect itself in party votes as well.
Looks similar to the vote that put Sinema in the Senate, same people, same places, she took indies by about 10%. Parties have 4/4 voters, those that voted same way in last 4 elections, votes they can count on. Those numbers look similar to 2018, independents may call themselves this "independent" , doesnt mean they are really independent and not predictable, if you take the 4/4 voters you can pretty much bank on the same divergence with indies. Any major divergence in independent voters would show up reflected somewhere in party vote.
Sorry I can not interpret what you wrote. What do you mean by 4/4, in plain English, what is the ratio for republicans versus democrats for independents. Are independents across the country tend to prefer democrats or az is special.
I do hope a few percentage of Dems will go for republicans because US people can not be that stupid if our previous generations built this wonderful country.
Ok so a 4/4 they call super voters, voted in all of last 4 elections, all the same way. So a 4/4 Republican would be a republican who voted republican in last 4 elections. These 4/4 voters, parties can take to the bank, almost 100% they will vote, and 100% they will vote for the same party again. Independents as I said, really are not all that independent, they lean more red or more blue. By counting 4/4 voters, you can detect a major shift in the way people are voting. For instance, if Independents were going to see a massive shift toward Trump, then the DNC would see a small, but notable shift in the number of 4/4 voters, they would see comparatively less of the 4/4 voters.
Yeah I don’t get the whole “nobody is voting for Biden” bit. Millions and millions of people will vote for Biden, and most of them won’t even be able to give you a coherent explanation why. They have been programmed.
There are ways to read into that, and nothing indicates a major wave of Dems voting for Trump, or GOP going for Biden. They can get a feel for non-party affiliated by looking at areas with a high number of non party affiliated, and what happened in 2018... areas of AZ are like this, they went for Sinema, patterns look the same for indies. I have yet to see anything that indicates a big surprise in anyones favor. Admittedly, GOP doing so good compared to Dems in Broward county is out of the ordinary, but I am guessing that is due to vote harvester of elections Brenda Sykes being gone. I think we are seeing what generally happens in Broward without the cheating, and Dems are way down.
I'm worried about large scale fraud to flip Texas. Early turnout numbers through the roof that would seem to jibe with that? Turnout is high everywhere though. But Texas is the one place we've had credible sounding reports of a large scale fraud attempt. Elsewhere it appears to be your standard usual here and there Democrat fraud.
Other than that I'm not really worried at all beyond normal pre election jitters.
In all honesty, there is no political comparison to where Trump is at right now. As crazy as it is, this 70 year old real estate tycoon turned swamp drainer, at this moment, is in an Elvis type zone. I’m not at all kidding.
I can count on my fingers the number of Joe Bidet lawn signs / car flags / bumper stickers I've seen in my county since the primaries. I see that many Trump swags every single day.
God bless the Electoral College and to hell with all those opposed.
I hope so. It's easy for these talking heads on TV to quote the polls, but I was just at a Trump/Police flag rally in my local city, and we got a TON of honks and support. We had a large group, while there were like 8 people across the street with BLM signs made of torn cardboard box. One had a Biden sign, and half of them were middle school kids. When I feel the energy and camaraderie we have, it's hard to believe we can lose. Fuck the lying, fake-news media!
I live in the opposite bubble. Lots of Biden signs in my neighborhood, no Trump signs and I'm not putting one up. I like my neighbors. I'm not interested in starting a fight with them. There's a group of women who are militant TDS, and couple others who are lifelong Democrats.
I'm just gonna go to the polls and quietly cancel one of their votes.
I hope your massacre prediction comes true, but I can't see that happening from where I sit.
HAHAHA! You guys are missing the forest for trees. Yes, everyone will of course go out and vote. And then we'll see the results. Don't worry. I don't think it's warranted, and it's not going to change anything anyway. But the energy surrounding Trump right now is unique in the whole history of modern politics. Will that translate into an election victory? I don't know for sure, but it's a pretty big deal.
No, you are in a bubble, we are seeing a lot that looks like 2016, but nothing really that indicates any huge red wave, or smash, or massive electoral victory. We have bright spots, normal spots, and some trouble spots particularity with non party affiliated voters perhaps. Look for a nail biter.
Are you kidding me? I thought 2016 was lost and we’d see the reign of the demonic Hillary. 2016 was nothing short of a miracle.
2020 though is showing signs of a huge Trump victory. Republicans outpacing Democrats in voter registration. Hispanics trending bigly for Trump. Blacks trending for Trump. Voter enthusiasm is off the charts off Trump. Party approval rate is pushing 100%. Job approval north of 50%. Are you better today than 4 years ago numbers better than Reagan’s ‘84 landslide.
The ONLY thing Dems have are the polls. Which were manipulated in 2016 and manipulated more this year.
All Dems have left is cheating and fraud. That’s their only path to victory.
We have actual numbers to look at now, not speculation. On the ground in NC a bellwether for black votes, its 18% in support of Trump, same in GA, a bit better but no massive black support (not shocked). We are not seeing anything so huge in FL, NC, AZ, PA, GA, SC that suggest a major wave of Republicans around the corner. We have pretty decent numbers in FL, but will likely beat where we were in early and mail in voting by about 20K more than we did in 2016. Dems had +96K in FL in 2016 on election eve, Dems will only have about 60-70K advantage this year. AZ has trouble spots with independent voters in Maricopa county, the same people who elected Kristen Sinema are back, GOP are ahead of Dems but not by that many and its a big republican leaning county. Independents are exit polling in favor of Biden, in some places big. I think Trump wins this, dont get me wrong, but all the rally size, Lil Wayne, Hunter dick pics are leading people to into a bubble. I have seen nothing that indicates this election is anything other than a nail biter. We seem to have the same partisan razor thin 50/50 margin we have had since 2016 and in 2000.
Those are registered party voter numbers. What % of registered dems are voting Dem? Because 99% of repubs are voting Trump. No Libertarian split like in 2016.
Doesnt seem to be an indication of huge amount of Dems voting Trump. They can take an area of Dems (Solid Dems they know will not vote Trump) extrapolate that against numbers in other places and detect major swings. They have exit polls too, yes I know they are polls, but wrong polls use similar formulas to other wrong poll years and no major swing indication. This idea major numbers of Dems are going to vote Republican is pie in the sky.
The "Reagan Democrats" who voted for Trump in PA and MI are a larger group than in the rest of the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Democrat
MI looks good for Trump. Dont kid yourself though, independents are not this wild crazy crowd that is unpredictable. Any major shift with indies would reflect itself in party votes as well.
Well, we will see. The electoral college will not be a nail biter. Trump as the incumbent should perform better than 2016. Perhaps 320 or 330 EV.
How do you know the independent voters go for Biden in AZ?
Looks similar to the vote that put Sinema in the Senate, same people, same places, she took indies by about 10%. Parties have 4/4 voters, those that voted same way in last 4 elections, votes they can count on. Those numbers look similar to 2018, independents may call themselves this "independent" , doesnt mean they are really independent and not predictable, if you take the 4/4 voters you can pretty much bank on the same divergence with indies. Any major divergence in independent voters would show up reflected somewhere in party vote.
Sorry I can not interpret what you wrote. What do you mean by 4/4, in plain English, what is the ratio for republicans versus democrats for independents. Are independents across the country tend to prefer democrats or az is special.
I do hope a few percentage of Dems will go for republicans because US people can not be that stupid if our previous generations built this wonderful country.
Ok so a 4/4 they call super voters, voted in all of last 4 elections, all the same way. So a 4/4 Republican would be a republican who voted republican in last 4 elections. These 4/4 voters, parties can take to the bank, almost 100% they will vote, and 100% they will vote for the same party again. Independents as I said, really are not all that independent, they lean more red or more blue. By counting 4/4 voters, you can detect a major shift in the way people are voting. For instance, if Independents were going to see a massive shift toward Trump, then the DNC would see a small, but notable shift in the number of 4/4 voters, they would see comparatively less of the 4/4 voters.
Yeah I don’t get the whole “nobody is voting for Biden” bit. Millions and millions of people will vote for Biden, and most of them won’t even be able to give you a coherent explanation why. They have been programmed.
They will be voting for NOT TRUMP, not biden.
Millions yes, but it’s looking unlikely that the number is what they want.
They seem to have expected a much higher runout then what they are getting.
Weird things may happen with NPAs . I registered independent because I don’t want to be a repub on paper
You just know who is turning up....not who those that are turning up are voting for.
There are ways to read into that, and nothing indicates a major wave of Dems voting for Trump, or GOP going for Biden. They can get a feel for non-party affiliated by looking at areas with a high number of non party affiliated, and what happened in 2018... areas of AZ are like this, they went for Sinema, patterns look the same for indies. I have yet to see anything that indicates a big surprise in anyones favor. Admittedly, GOP doing so good compared to Dems in Broward county is out of the ordinary, but I am guessing that is due to vote harvester of elections Brenda Sykes being gone. I think we are seeing what generally happens in Broward without the cheating, and Dems are way down.
Hey just a couple more days and we’ll see.
Hopefully, if it comes to PA or NC we wont know until a week later.
you are right. no one is voting for biden, they are voting for NOT Trump.....
It's going to be close. VOTE!!!!!
even so, GO UT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT!!
because our way of life does!
Do not underestimate the quantity of retards and TDSers.
I'm worried about large scale fraud to flip Texas. Early turnout numbers through the roof that would seem to jibe with that? Turnout is high everywhere though. But Texas is the one place we've had credible sounding reports of a large scale fraud attempt. Elsewhere it appears to be your standard usual here and there Democrat fraud.
Other than that I'm not really worried at all beyond normal pre election jitters.
Does feel like it should be a blowout for Trump. There is just so many things working in Trump's favor.
In all honesty, there is no political comparison to where Trump is at right now. As crazy as it is, this 70 year old real estate tycoon turned swamp drainer, at this moment, is in an Elvis type zone. I’m not at all kidding.
I can count on my fingers the number of Joe Bidet lawn signs / car flags / bumper stickers I've seen in my county since the primaries. I see that many Trump swags every single day.
God bless the Electoral College and to hell with all those opposed.
I hope so. It's easy for these talking heads on TV to quote the polls, but I was just at a Trump/Police flag rally in my local city, and we got a TON of honks and support. We had a large group, while there were like 8 people across the street with BLM signs made of torn cardboard box. One had a Biden sign, and half of them were middle school kids. When I feel the energy and camaraderie we have, it's hard to believe we can lose. Fuck the lying, fake-news media!
Vote!
I live in the opposite bubble. Lots of Biden signs in my neighborhood, no Trump signs and I'm not putting one up. I like my neighbors. I'm not interested in starting a fight with them. There's a group of women who are militant TDS, and couple others who are lifelong Democrats.
I'm just gonna go to the polls and quietly cancel one of their votes.
I hope your massacre prediction comes true, but I can't see that happening from where I sit.
HAHAHA! You guys are missing the forest for trees. Yes, everyone will of course go out and vote. And then we'll see the results. Don't worry. I don't think it's warranted, and it's not going to change anything anyway. But the energy surrounding Trump right now is unique in the whole history of modern politics. Will that translate into an election victory? I don't know for sure, but it's a pretty big deal.
A few more days. We’ll see.