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Not only that, it needs to be a clear win, otherwise they will be finding boxes of "genuine ballots" for weeks, disrupting the stock market and aiding riots.
The polls are wrong because the climate of cancel culture. Most people find trans stuff absurd, but you can't say that or you get canceled. There is a trans guy at work. Everyone walks on egg shells around him. Privately everyone thinks its just a pathetic joke. Even the gay guy he works with thinks it's absurd.
This is the case with many, many of the dems pet issues including BLM. Black people I know don't like being pandered to or being treated differently and while they certainly have a little rougher road in life, in general, they don't like using it as a crutch. Now this might just be because I know successful black people. But I'll be damned if I haven't seen a lot of disdain for BLM from the people they're allegedly representing.
NM I could see, but NV is hopeful at best. The others for sure should go Trump. NC is not a swing state at all lol. AZ is based but the cali libs in PHX/Tempe are a fucking problem.
I 100% believe NV is red, don't get me wrong. Even Vegas is based. All my taxis/Ubers were based. Clerks- based. Casino people (idk the proper terms) - based. Like many states, you go there and you would be on fucking mars not to think "uh yeah, this is Trump territory" -- but I said about the same in 16 and it shit the bed. NV is a tossup the others aren't.
All you need to know about PA is that Trump has registered a fuckload of republicans in the past 4 years and the Democrats have fallen behind.
Party loyalty figures have been pretty constant for the past uh 16-20 years or so. Republicans vote republican mostly, democrats break republican slightly more often. The numbers have been pretty consistent.
With the current party registration numbers, for Trump to lose, he would have to put in a worse performance than McCain or Romney and Biden would have to put in better performance than Obama in 2008. Do you see 2008 Obama levels of excitement for Biden this year? Do you see sub-Romney levels of excitement for Trump?
No, obviously not. Trump is going to crush. My official estimate is that Trump wins PA by 250-500k votes, give or take a little fraud.
If hatred of a candidate equaled excitement for electing the other guy, President Romney would be finishing up his second term right now. Of course this never would have happened because Kerry would have replaced Bush after 4 years.
Meanwhile in reality, republicans weren't enthusiastic about Romney at all and he lost even though they hated Obama, who managed to coast by on good but not great levels of democrat enthusiasm.
Republicans are fired up to vote for Trump. Literally no one on the D side wanted Biden. He was doing badly in the primaries until a bunch of other candidates strategically dropped out and endorsed him to screw Bernie. I could see Bernie or Warren getting a little excitement but not Biden.
But I don't believe it. Hate is a powerful motivator. None of the politicians that you mentioned came even close to the levels of hatred that Trump gets.
There's now a new mental illness that is widespread. It's called Trump Derangement Syndrome. It's a pandemic, it even affects people in Europe. The victim gets completely disconnected from reality in a cocktails of schizophrenia and blind hatred.
You can bet that all the sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome will show up at the polls.
You're confusing the press with the public with the voters. The press have been behaving this way ever since the press took down Nixon for essentially nothing. Every 4 years, the republican candidate is LITERALLY HITLER and/or a moron and the guy they previously accused of being hitler is respectable elder statesman. Remember George W Bush? He was the devil until McCain came long. And then he was a fascist scum until Romney came along. Now look how they treat Romney. Remember, Reagan was an incompetent moron who was losing to Mondale... until they counted the votes on election day.
You might get the mistaken impression from twitter (70-80 percent left wing) and the news (about 90 percent left wing) that EVERYONE hates Trump. But surprise, most of the country isn't tuned into that bullshit. 98 percent of people refuse to talk to pollsters- and the 2 percent who do talk to them are ovelwhemingly liberal white females with college educations. Remember how much Bernie was dominating before people actually showed up to vote in the Democratic primary? Twitter and the news aren't real life. Bernie dominates the left wing bubble and the left wing bubble doesn't have that many votes.
So basically the press and the polling industry is corrupt and disconnected from reality. That is why you see so much evidence of Trump winning everywhere except Twitter and the press. Because they hate him while the rest of the country is largely indifferent.
That's why there's been such huge numbers for mail-in voting this time. Can't risk going outside because they might catch a bug with a 99.9% survival rate, oh the horror!
Fancy math and learning to code are great, but this only works if people get out and vote!
Four years ago so many of us said "Eh, I guess" for Trump because we knew how vile and disgusting Hillary's lust for power and greed were.
Now I sincerely believe that there are legions of people who would willingly endure true sacrifice for the privilege of voting for him, and I can't wait to see what he delivers! LET'S FINISH THIS!
The Dem-unist Party has a basement full of Chinese Children (on loan from Apple) working 16 hour shifts filling in little colored circles on the ballots.
I also think people will be surprised about how many crossover votes there are for Trump. There will be a lot of Democrats voting for Trump, and I doubt the reverse is true (just look at Trump's approval in the Republican party)
Not only that, it needs to be a clear win, otherwise they will be finding boxes of "genuine ballots" for weeks, disrupting the stock market and aiding riots.
Right, this graph doesn't show what happens AFTER Nov 3rd
I see that you too are a student of the Al Franken school of election fraud.
or the Obama school of philly county of 2012 where he had more votes there than people who were actually eligible to vote
or the brenda snipes school of waiting to see how many votes she needs to add to the rolls to counteract the pan handle vote.
the reason why we wait so long for Florida every year.
That graph looks like the wall. Lets help him finish this. Vote like it is your last chance to do so.
Indeed! Don't get complacent! VOTE VOTE VOTE!!
Yeah the polls showing Biden up 10 in PA are absurd. Trump should win. Even the Dems know that, that's why they're trying to cheat.
The polls are wrong because the climate of cancel culture. Most people find trans stuff absurd, but you can't say that or you get canceled. There is a trans guy at work. Everyone walks on egg shells around him. Privately everyone thinks its just a pathetic joke. Even the gay guy he works with thinks it's absurd.
This is the case with many, many of the dems pet issues including BLM. Black people I know don't like being pandered to or being treated differently and while they certainly have a little rougher road in life, in general, they don't like using it as a crutch. Now this might just be because I know successful black people. But I'll be damned if I haven't seen a lot of disdain for BLM from the people they're allegedly representing.
3 million mail-ins sent out, 1 million not returned. Turn out on November 3 and bring everyone you can find with a heartbeat.
This is great news. PA is absolutely critical this time, as are FL OH and NC.
FL and OH are easily going to Trump
NM I could see, but NV is hopeful at best. The others for sure should go Trump. NC is not a swing state at all lol. AZ is based but the cali libs in PHX/Tempe are a fucking problem.
I 100% believe NV is red, don't get me wrong. Even Vegas is based. All my taxis/Ubers were based. Clerks- based. Casino people (idk the proper terms) - based. Like many states, you go there and you would be on fucking mars not to think "uh yeah, this is Trump territory" -- but I said about the same in 16 and it shit the bed. NV is a tossup the others aren't.
I don't believe it to be a matter of hope..... VOTE, NV PEDES
I'm not sure if I understand this thread, but I saw yesterday then in NV the early voting was pretty much equal.
This should mean a landslide for us as we'll pick up more votes in election day.
PA is great to have, but not critical.
I've analyzed a bit and Trump can win with MI + AZ, or MI + WI.
Judging from early voting, we're getting MI and WI.
R you big into data too?
See what I did there?
I %>% getyou()
Stata (the poor man’s R)
Where is this from?
All you need to know about PA is that Trump has registered a fuckload of republicans in the past 4 years and the Democrats have fallen behind.
Party loyalty figures have been pretty constant for the past uh 16-20 years or so. Republicans vote republican mostly, democrats break republican slightly more often. The numbers have been pretty consistent.
With the current party registration numbers, for Trump to lose, he would have to put in a worse performance than McCain or Romney and Biden would have to put in better performance than Obama in 2008. Do you see 2008 Obama levels of excitement for Biden this year? Do you see sub-Romney levels of excitement for Trump?
No, obviously not. Trump is going to crush. My official estimate is that Trump wins PA by 250-500k votes, give or take a little fraud.
False equivalence unfortunately.
Today's levels of Trump Derangement Syndrome have never been reached, not even half or a quarter of it.
The left might not be excited about Biden, but the "excitement" of hating Trump is off the charts.
If hatred of a candidate equaled excitement for electing the other guy, President Romney would be finishing up his second term right now. Of course this never would have happened because Kerry would have replaced Bush after 4 years.
Meanwhile in reality, republicans weren't enthusiastic about Romney at all and he lost even though they hated Obama, who managed to coast by on good but not great levels of democrat enthusiasm.
Republicans are fired up to vote for Trump. Literally no one on the D side wanted Biden. He was doing badly in the primaries until a bunch of other candidates strategically dropped out and endorsed him to screw Bernie. I could see Bernie or Warren getting a little excitement but not Biden.
I truly hope that you're right.
But I don't believe it. Hate is a powerful motivator. None of the politicians that you mentioned came even close to the levels of hatred that Trump gets.
There's now a new mental illness that is widespread. It's called Trump Derangement Syndrome. It's a pandemic, it even affects people in Europe. The victim gets completely disconnected from reality in a cocktails of schizophrenia and blind hatred.
You can bet that all the sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome will show up at the polls.
You're confusing the press with the public with the voters. The press have been behaving this way ever since the press took down Nixon for essentially nothing. Every 4 years, the republican candidate is LITERALLY HITLER and/or a moron and the guy they previously accused of being hitler is respectable elder statesman. Remember George W Bush? He was the devil until McCain came long. And then he was a fascist scum until Romney came along. Now look how they treat Romney. Remember, Reagan was an incompetent moron who was losing to Mondale... until they counted the votes on election day.
You might get the mistaken impression from twitter (70-80 percent left wing) and the news (about 90 percent left wing) that EVERYONE hates Trump. But surprise, most of the country isn't tuned into that bullshit. 98 percent of people refuse to talk to pollsters- and the 2 percent who do talk to them are ovelwhemingly liberal white females with college educations. Remember how much Bernie was dominating before people actually showed up to vote in the Democratic primary? Twitter and the news aren't real life. Bernie dominates the left wing bubble and the left wing bubble doesn't have that many votes.
So basically the press and the polling industry is corrupt and disconnected from reality. That is why you see so much evidence of Trump winning everywhere except Twitter and the press. Because they hate him while the rest of the country is largely indifferent.
Thank you for your post.
I hope you're right.
We are getting smashed in the mail-in returns. If you received a PA R-mail-in, where the fuck is your ballot?
hopefully dems are too scared to vote in person on nov 3. If that happens it'll be easy
That's why there's been such huge numbers for mail-in voting this time. Can't risk going outside because they might catch a bug with a 99.9% survival rate, oh the horror!
Fancy math and learning to code are great, but this only works if people get out and vote!
Four years ago so many of us said "Eh, I guess" for Trump because we knew how vile and disgusting Hillary's lust for power and greed were.
Now I sincerely believe that there are legions of people who would willingly endure true sacrifice for the privilege of voting for him, and I can't wait to see what he delivers! LET'S FINISH THIS!
Never been so proud to live in maga country lmao
Emerson sure gives Biden a large majority of independents
And I find the 85% of Republican votes kinda low, no?
It’s lower than any republican approval rating I’ve seen Nationally, but that doesn’t mean that’s the number in Pennsylvania
How many absolute number in votes are we talking about....I'm always afraid of fraud ballots being stuffed 3 days into election night
The Dem-unist Party has a basement full of Chinese Children (on loan from Apple) working 16 hour shifts filling in little colored circles on the ballots.
Why have I not heard the phrase demunist before?
It’s perfect
I made it up, and am trying to give it some traction. Here was my post, but only 15 likes. Pepe was sad, lol! https://thedonald.win/p/11PW7mw19r/who-has-an-office-copier-they-co/c/
I'll tell you what it means....
4 More Years!
We need all to turnout !! We need it all
Every republican voted trump, but not every democrat voted for the sniffer.
I don't understand this graph, could someone explain it to me please?
The white bars with red/blue borders and their trend lines are based on early voting, makes sense.
But where does the "projected" final vote comes from? Why is there a share of projected final vote for each day, how did they get that?
I also think people will be surprised about how many crossover votes there are for Trump. There will be a lot of Democrats voting for Trump, and I doubt the reverse is true (just look at Trump's approval in the Republican party)
this is MAGA country
Now extend the graph to nov 10th and see who wins, because thats what were up against.