Any full-time Florida pedes, have a few questions.
- I think Trump will keep the Republican vote (and 4% will defect)
- Q: How what's the feeling on Democrats that defect...what percentage, realisticallly?
- Q: How do you think the Unaffliated/3rd Party breaks?
- What % stay Non Party? What % breaks for Trump? What % breaks for Biden?
Right now, I have it like this
- 7% of Democrats will defect from Biden to Trump
- 4% of Republicans will defect from Trump to Biden
- I think 5% of the 3rd parties vote 3rd party; 55% vote Trump; and 45% vote Biden
If those values are correct, Trump is currently winning Florida (51 - 48).
Are my numbers off? If so, give me your predictions...
I bet the amount of 2016 trump voters voting for Biden is less than 1 percent.
To be fair, I was thinking Republicans. There are some real douchebags still in the party (Mittens, Sasse, etc). I don’t think any Trump voter from 2016 is off the Trump Train, but there could be some real Pubbies that a gonna flake.
Just think it might be more than one percent