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FLORIDA PEDES! Question ---
posted ago by chuckachookah ago by chuckachookah +12 / -0

Any full-time Florida pedes, have a few questions.

  • I think Trump will keep the Republican vote (and 4% will defect)
  • Q: How what's the feeling on Democrats that defect...what percentage, realisticallly?
  • Q: How do you think the Unaffliated/3rd Party breaks?
  • What % stay Non Party? What % breaks for Trump? What % breaks for Biden?

Right now, I have it like this

  • 7% of Democrats will defect from Biden to Trump
  • 4% of Republicans will defect from Trump to Biden
  • I think 5% of the 3rd parties vote 3rd party; 55% vote Trump; and 45% vote Biden

If those values are correct, Trump is currently winning Florida (51 - 48).

Are my numbers off? If so, give me your predictions...

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– chuckachookah [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

To be fair, I was thinking Republicans. There are some real douchebags still in the party (Mittens, Sasse, etc). I don’t think any Trump voter from 2016 is off the Trump Train, but there could be some real Pubbies that a gonna flake.

Just think it might be more than one percent

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