In other words Trump beats Biden's ass, wins the popular vote by roughly 2012 type margin and the only question is how humiliating it gets.
Trump wins all his 2016 states and New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and Maine at large. If he loses all of Colorado/New Mexico/Virginia it's 328-210, if he wins all it's 355-183.
Dems have to sweat out Oregon for hours and embarrassing them some like New York, NJ, Rhode Island, Connecticut aren't announced immediately, but have to wait like 30 minutes to an hour.
I will think this is about right. Weak= Trump back at 306. Medium=Trump at 326(NV, NH, MN). Good= Trump at 355. Great= 379+ OR, NJ, DE. I think if we get good, we win the House and increase Senate. If we get great, we might get close to 60 in the Senate.
Hoping those "shy" Trump voters and "Dad joke" Trump voters have a major surprise in store.
Also, even if Trump does not win a state I think he can still help flip Congressional seats red.
Liberals are already in panic mode, just looked at Nate Silver's twitter thread. The meltdown is starting.
The Democrats and CCP were probably mad that the pollsters tightened a few weeks ahead last time giving time for Trump momentum story to build. This time they just have to wait until the Monday before for the shocking Trump bump.
Silver is definitely going to hedge his ass off and suddenly give Trump a 30% chance again before election day.
Yea but all things considered -5 the last two elections is not that bad considering Republicans lost popular vote by 2 and 4. In a scenario where Trump comfortably wins popular vote it should be close.
I could see Virginia flipping if the data we're getting about the Black Vote is anywhere close to correct.
New Mexico I could also see as plausible.
Colorado less so but it's still within the realm of plausibility.
I read something recently about va that said the non-educated white working class was out voting the college educated white vote which could be really good for Virginia
Yes! Turnout folks.
Do not give up.
Find a friend and drive him/her to the polls.
Every effort counts. No effort is wasted.
I like the sound of this but what data are you looking at?
I thought about what a Trump 4-5% popular vote would look like. Considering Obama won in 2012 over a better candidate than Sleepy Joe (the worst presidential candidate in history) it shouldn't be that unbelievable. Trump is getting rallies in Beverly Hills and Hawaii right now. The enthusiasm gap is a joke.
So if you add 6-7% to the 2016 votes the states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin become comfortable and the swing ones becomes the Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico group, while Oregon and up is probably out of reach.
From your keyboard to God’s ears!