In other words Trump beats Biden's ass, wins the popular vote by roughly 2012 type margin and the only question is how humiliating it gets.
Trump wins all his 2016 states and New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and Maine at large. If he loses all of Colorado/New Mexico/Virginia it's 328-210, if he wins all it's 355-183.
Dems have to sweat out Oregon for hours and embarrassing them some like New York, NJ, Rhode Island, Connecticut aren't announced immediately, but have to wait like 30 minutes to an hour.
I like the sound of this but what data are you looking at?
I thought about what a Trump 4-5% popular vote would look like. Considering Obama won in 2012 over a better candidate than Sleepy Joe (the worst presidential candidate in history) it shouldn't be that unbelievable. Trump is getting rallies in Beverly Hills and Hawaii right now. The enthusiasm gap is a joke.
So if you add 6-7% to the 2016 votes the states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin become comfortable and the swing ones becomes the Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico group, while Oregon and up is probably out of reach.