It seems Trump’s internal polls are much better than the public polls. Love his confidence. Is the methodology much different? How can all of the public polls be so wrong? Generally curious because I don’t know.
A CNN poll earlier this year was used to support their story about Texas now being a “purple state” and projecting a Biden victory. The poll was taken from 500 likely voters in AUSTIN, 300 of which were Democrats. Public polls are designed to influence and demoralize. They have no basis in reality.
Trafalgar is the only poll I'm aware of that is trying to account for the fact that Trump supporters are reluctant to participate in polling. The left does not understand Trump supporters and they think that this dynamic does not exist.
I actually got my first phone call the other day about who I'm voting for. I told them Biden. I said his position on legalizing pedophilia will let me live out life as I truly am.
You can tell she was confused for a second. I hung up after. Lol.
There’s a pollster named Richard Baris (People’s Pundit) that says it’s insanely frustrating trying to reach a lot of Trump’s working base because they hang up or abandon surveys. He does good work cause he asks questions that are meant to sus our people who lie or lean one way.
Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
I told Biden's Facebook campaign that I was voting for Biden. No reason to give them accurate data. I even called my congress-critter (freshman Dem in red state) to support impeachment since I banked on it failing.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer
they look at #s. look up info about trafalgar too. they all have strengths and weaknesses. they often mention polls here and you can learn a lot by these guys based on their terminology. just google it after you see them mention a pollster. one thing is clear, they all make fun of nate silver and call him nate plastic 😂
It seems Trump’s internal polls are much better than the public polls. Love his confidence. Is the methodology much different? How can all of the public polls be so wrong? Generally curious because I don’t know.
A CNN poll earlier this year was used to support their story about Texas now being a “purple state” and projecting a Biden victory. The poll was taken from 500 likely voters in AUSTIN, 300 of which were Democrats. Public polls are designed to influence and demoralize. They have no basis in reality.
Msnbc even used their viewers polls in 2016, what Trump voter watches msnbc? That's how you get 98% to 2%.
Why not just poll likely voters at Biden headquarters?
I'm sure they would have more people leaning Republican after his rally than before. Kek.
They are wrong because they are meant to influence and accomplish goals, where the internal polls are meant to inform his campaign of reality.
Trafalgar is the only one who doesnt use public opinions, but only a various compilation of stats.
Trafalgar is the only poll I'm aware of that is trying to account for the fact that Trump supporters are reluctant to participate in polling. The left does not understand Trump supporters and they think that this dynamic does not exist.
I actually got my first phone call the other day about who I'm voting for. I told them Biden. I said his position on legalizing pedophilia will let me live out life as I truly am.
You can tell she was confused for a second. I hung up after. Lol.
There’s a pollster named Richard Baris (People’s Pundit) that says it’s insanely frustrating trying to reach a lot of Trump’s working base because they hang up or abandon surveys. He does good work cause he asks questions that are meant to sus our people who lie or lean one way.
There is no reason to ever promote a poll where you’re losing. You discourage your base, your donors, and suppress turnout.
Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
I told Biden's Facebook campaign that I was voting for Biden. No reason to give them accurate data. I even called my congress-critter (freshman Dem in red state) to support impeachment since I banked on it failing.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer
Or is working a job and too busy to answer random phone calls
Yeah, using the numbers for the primaries, the Primary Model has predicted 25 out of 27 elections. This election it gives Trump 91% chance of winning.
they look at #s. look up info about trafalgar too. they all have strengths and weaknesses. they often mention polls here and you can learn a lot by these guys based on their terminology. just google it after you see them mention a pollster. one thing is clear, they all make fun of nate silver and call him nate plastic 😂
VOTE!!! regardless of how good these look
https://mobile.twitter.com/athein1/ https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/ https://mobile.twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/
Silver's reputation is definitely tarnished.
T H E
R A D I C A L
L E F T
I S
G O I N G
D O W N
🥰