Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
I told Biden's Facebook campaign that I was voting for Biden. No reason to give them accurate data. I even called my congress-critter (freshman Dem in red state) to support impeachment since I banked on it failing.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer
Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
I told Biden's Facebook campaign that I was voting for Biden. No reason to give them accurate data. I even called my congress-critter (freshman Dem in red state) to support impeachment since I banked on it failing.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer
Or is working a job and too busy to answer random phone calls
Yeah, using the numbers for the primaries, the Primary Model has predicted 25 out of 27 elections. This election it gives Trump 91% chance of winning.