It seems Trump’s internal polls are much better than the public polls. Love his confidence. Is the methodology much different? How can all of the public polls be so wrong? Generally curious because I don’t know.
Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer
It seems Trump’s internal polls are much better than the public polls. Love his confidence. Is the methodology much different? How can all of the public polls be so wrong? Generally curious because I don’t know.
Public polls mostly don't know how / don't try to model the "Shy Trump Voter" demographic and either use outdated / Democrat-biased baselines to weigh samples against.
The most accurate public polls take into account less corruptible measures (such as primary turnout and other broad trend lines for enthusiasm). The private polls that try to model those that don't answer polls (like 95%+) and ask questions like "who do you think your friends / family are voting for" (tries to get a feel of people that adamantly refuse to out themselves) tend to be a hell of a lot more accurate.
Democrats are more likely to answer polls because it is another exercise in virtue signaling.
Poll worker: "Hi, I am calling from XYZ Poll Group Analytics, who do you prefer in this year's Presidential election?"
Average NPC Dem: "Wait, who's calling? I'm important now!! Hi - I am voting for JOE BIDEN because BLACK LIVES MATTER and I want you to know how TOLERANT and ANTI-RACIST I am!!! Tell all your POC friends that I have their back!! I am standing up for the right to murder your child and for BLACK people who totally need ME to save them!!"
Average Trump voter: Sees call from random number... doesn't answer