I have a feeling that even Trafalgar is underestimating the Trump/Republican vote.
My current prediction, 56+ R Senate seats next year, 235+ R House seats. (218 needed for majority.) Trump wins popular vote, in addition to 329+ (possibly 351+) electoral votes.
It's really hard to conduct a good poll now. It's no longer just "statistics". It's psychology.
Trafalgar has an interesting methodology. They ask:
Who will you vote for?
Do you know people that will vote for (the other candidate)?
Who do you think will win the election?
They have found that answer #3 is a better predictor than #1.
USC (University of Southern California? I'm not sure) has recently said they have been experimenting with this kind of methodology, asking participants who they think will win their state. They did so in 2016, and found that it accurately predicted state-level results.
They aren't yet willing to change their methodology, but have said they are doing the same this year, and that it predicts a Trump electoral vote victory.
This clown is such a piece of shit. I remember waking up to go vote on election day in 2016 and him crowing about how Hillary was absolutely going to be President. The hubris of these asshole pollsters like Silver and Luntz is disgusting.
I guarantee the final set of polls released on the 2nd will magically either have Trump ahead in battleground states or within the margin of error.
Those are boxes of some sort of mass-produced item, as evidenced by the list of details printed on one side. Pamphlets, widgets or Biden/Harris ball-gags I can't be sure.
Is he packing his house, or are those emergency Pennsylvania and Florida Democrat ballots?
Came here to say this, boxes of ballots.
Yep, beat me to it.
Of course not. Many good pollsters labeled as "conservative hacks" that have gotten it right over the past decade.
Propaganda pollsters like Frank are done.
We'll see who got it right soon enough.
I have a feeling that even Trafalgar is underestimating the Trump/Republican vote.
My current prediction, 56+ R Senate seats next year, 235+ R House seats. (218 needed for majority.) Trump wins popular vote, in addition to 329+ (possibly 351+) electoral votes.
Gonna be a wild week for sure.
Luntz delivers the results his clients want
Just like a global warming scientist.
It's really hard to conduct a good poll now. It's no longer just "statistics". It's psychology.
Trafalgar has an interesting methodology. They ask:
They have found that answer #3 is a better predictor than #1.
USC (University of Southern California? I'm not sure) has recently said they have been experimenting with this kind of methodology, asking participants who they think will win their state. They did so in 2016, and found that it accurately predicted state-level results.
They aren't yet willing to change their methodology, but have said they are doing the same this year, and that it predicts a Trump electoral vote victory.
That’s like calling for a fresh batch of journalists to “do it right.”
The ones currently in power and money will not give up their position, and the real money is in manipulation, not measurement.
this guy is such a douche. he was also in Hunter's emails.
His profession was done four years ago
His clients don’t pay him to be right or wrong. They pay him to influence numb nuts.
HAHAHAH
This clown is such a piece of shit. I remember waking up to go vote on election day in 2016 and him crowing about how Hillary was absolutely going to be President. The hubris of these asshole pollsters like Silver and Luntz is disgusting.
I guarantee the final set of polls released on the 2nd will magically either have Trump ahead in battleground states or within the margin of error.
That's the boxes he stores his child porn.
You can see the despair in his eyes.
Those are boxes of some sort of mass-produced item, as evidenced by the list of details printed on one side. Pamphlets, widgets or Biden/Harris ball-gags I can't be sure.
Polling is just full of leftists.
Just like journalism.
They use their product to promote their candidate and harm the competitor.
What is this "pollster" suggesting that the odd are on this upcoming Presidential re-election blowout?
He's been a joke for some time.
I haven't paid attention to this tard if half a decade but I'm not surprised he's grown his crazy man beard.
They are all tightening up their polls at the last minute to try and save face
What are they gonna say when it's a LANDSLIDE