Registered Democrats have only cast ~33k more votes than registered Republicans as of the last update (10/31). If Independents favor Trump the way they did in 2016, it's possible that Trump is actually leading in the early voting. Consider that Clinton won the state by a mere 27k votes in 2016.
Given the expected in-person voting advantage of 60/30 for Republicans on Election Day, Democrats don't appear to be anywhere near the lead they would theoretically need to stave off a Republican victory.
It should be noted that this data obviously doesn't account for party crossover votes or the possible reduction in support from Independents. Additionally, we should expect the dem-rep margin to widen as mail-in ballots continue to come in, and keep in mind that mail-in ballots need only be mailed by Nov. 3rd, not received, to be counted in Nevada.
All that said, between Nevadans being fed up with restrictive lockdown measures, Republicans narrowing the registered voter gap since 2016, and the lackluster Dem participation up to this point, there appears to be a very real path to victory for Trump in 2020. This is all evidenced by the actions of the Trump campaign. They smell blood in the water, and have subsequently given the state increased attention this cycle in the form of rallies and advertising.
I'm interested to hear what you guys think. Especially our Nevadan pedes.
Registered Democrats have only cast [~33k more votes](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NV.html) than registered Republicans as of the last update (10/31). If Independents favor Trump the way they did in 2016, it's possible that Trump is actually leading in the early voting. Consider that Clinton won the state by a mere 27k votes in 2016.
Given the expected in-person voting advantage of 60/30 for Republicans on Election Day, Democrats don't appear to be anywhere near the lead they would theoretically need to stave off a Republican victory.
It should be noted that this data obviously doesn't account for party crossover votes or the possible reduction in support from Independents. Additionally, we should expect the dem-rep margin to widen as mail-in ballots continue to come in, and keep in mind that mail-in ballots need only be mailed by Nov. 3rd, not received, to be counted in Nevada.
All that said, between Nevadans being fed up with restrictive lockdown measures, Republicans narrowing the registered voter gap since 2016, and the lackluster Dem participation up to this point, there appears to be a very real path to victory for Trump in 2020. This is all evidenced by the actions of the Trump campaign. They smell blood in the water, and have subsequently given the state increased attention this cycle in the form of rallies and advertising.
I'm interested to hear what you guys think. Especially our Nevadan pedes.
It's hard to get inside the head of someone with zero sense of personal responsibility, but it's the only way to understand a leftist and their perpetual victimhood mentalities.
What about dem voters makes you think they are responsible?
What kind of corruption are we talking? Sketchy polling practices, actual voter fraud, all of the above?
39k more D’s have voted than R’s based on NV SOS website. Gotta crush it on Election Day and hope that the service workers break for Trump (Biden lockdowns).
We will win if we VOTE.
Take a look at the Nevada Independent election blog by Jon Ralston. He thinks the Dems have it in the bag. I’ve emailed him pointing out he’s underestimating GOP turnout and assumes very few Dems will vote for Trump and also thinks indie vote is close to 50-50. Didn’t get much of a response. But if you use his numbers but correct these defects Trump wins.
Take a look at the NBC tracking info state by state tracking for Nevada. It’s still showing Dems +3% taking into account mail in and early voting (39-36). But for the reasons you mention re Election Day advantage that’s not a bad statistic.
But who’s keeping track? Lol
Looks to me like Trump will win Nevada!!
VOTE!!