Dems in 2016 went into election with 96K votes, they gained this year and sit at 104K votes. A million new people now live in FL compared to 2016. Trump won FL in 2016 by 130K votes. If we see a 2016 repeat, Trump should win FL by 100K votes. Any decline in GOP or major gain in Dem turnout tomorrow would likely see Biden carry FL. We at least have to get 2016 GOP numbers out.
Remember, just because a Democrat voted early, it doesn't mean they voted Biden. Those are early votes, not necessarily Biden votes.
Considering the gains in the Latino community, I would wager a healthy portion of those early D votes are for Trump, and 100% of the early R votes are for Trump.
I am only going based on what we see from early and mail in voting numbers we have and 2016, that's all we actually know, not speculating on anything else.
Dems in 2016 went into election with 96K votes, they gained this year and sit at 104K votes. A million new people now live in FL compared to 2016. Trump won FL in 2016 by 130K votes. If we see a 2016 repeat, Trump should win FL by 100K votes. Any decline in GOP or major gain in Dem turnout tomorrow would likely see Biden carry FL. We at least have to get 2016 GOP numbers out.
Remember, just because a Democrat voted early, it doesn't mean they voted Biden. Those are early votes, not necessarily Biden votes.
Considering the gains in the Latino community, I would wager a healthy portion of those early D votes are for Trump, and 100% of the early R votes are for Trump.
But I am not really counting on that. Could happen, but I am holding all things equal to 2016.
Do remember with the Covid scare Dems are voting more before election day. Of course they're going to be up more this time.
I am only going based on what we see from early and mail in voting numbers we have and 2016, that's all we actually know, not speculating on anything else.