Just had the morning news on to see what they are up to, REALLY pushing how cases are skyrocketing and hospitals are overflowing and how Trump fucked everything up. Like you said this could come back to bite them in the as bigly, Trump voters see through the bs and will go out and vote no matter what, will Dems?
The country is extremely polarised. Half the country believes every lie the MSM tells about Trump. In reality, this election isn't Trump vs Biden, it's Trump vs the media
If you want to understand this split, you need to get how ignorance works and why censorship and information warfare are so ubiquitous in history - they are effective.
People who are casting their votes for Biden, most of them just don't know anything about anything. Mentally conditioned to believe whatever color blue says, and automatically reject anything that goes against it. They don't know about Biden's gaffes and mental states - hell most of them probably literally never once heard Biden speak. They just heard news anchors talk about Biden. Same goes for Kamala.
They don't watch debates, they don't watch rallies. Their entirely worldview, if examined in a memory stack would find almost ever root to be originating from a passing glimpse of reading the title of some fake news article (but never the article itself)
Because this year all the Demonrats have been pushed to vote by mail, them having the same advantage as 2016 means that they are getting destroyed tomorrow.
They blew their load already. Tomorrow is our turn.
Hillary had a larger lead in florida on election night. How are you saying Biden was better? The democrats blew their load on early voting and are still getting a smackdown.
Edit 2: I said that these are big red counties. For clarification, I don't mean that they are particularly populous, but that GOP has a 30%+ lead in both.
No. Early voting is typically not open on the Monday before the election (in FL), but early voting was disrupted in these counties due to weather issues. They added the extra day today to make up for it.
Well it is still very close. 1 million population increase is equal to a 5% increase. 96.4*1.05=101.2, this means that dems are 3.4 k ahead of the 2016 target. Trump won by 1.2% in 2016 so it is crucial that everyone in Florida actually turns out to vote. Assuming an independent split of 50% this puts Biden ahead by 1 point in the early vote.
At this point in time 8.8 million votes have been cast, compared to 9.5 million total in 2016. So on election day there may only be 1 million more votes cast. To win Trump needs at least 55% of these votes to go his way. 61% if he wants the same lead as in 2016. I do not know what the EV turnout looked like in 2016.
Have to call it though, he was much more optimistic last week on where we would be today. Not sure how much confidence I have in this guy anymore. Also not sure why we would count on low election day turnout for dems.
Yeah he was confident R's would be leading come election day, so it's a little disappointing
Dem's have consistently said they won't vote on Election day though. From the latest Rasmussen Florida poll
Among the 68% who say they have already voted, the Democrat leads by eight – 52% to 44%. Trump has a 15-point advantage among those who have yet to vote.
Every poll will say something similar. Only about 30-40% of Dems says they will vote on Election day
That would be excellent news, a 60/40 GOP advantage in the tight states would crush dems. Anything closer to 50/50 not so much. Hard to tell as usual. Also its important GOP meets or exceeds 2016, any COVID shyness etc. would be bad. I am NOT taking D flip for Trump as a major factor, thats not how it works. Its usually a wash. We need bigger turnout, plain and simple.
Sky News Australia is pretty based. They just had a professor from Griffith University on that is a machine learning expert and has an amazing record on predicting events. Says he just finished crunching the numbers for Florida and he says 3.1% win to Trump.
My county a has been reliably blue for some time but I'm hoping for a shift. Even if it stays cucked, there's no way the rest of the state isn't going to MAGA.
This is huge. I don't want to guarantee anything, because anything can happen, but this is not only pointing towards Trump winning Florida, it's pointing towards a Trump BLOWOUT in Florida (remember, among likely voters voting on Election, Trump has a 18-20 point lead).
If Trump blows out Biden in Florida, there's a carry-over effect. That bodes well for Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
A lot of people saying they can't cheat in FL this year
DeSantis is watching them a hawk. On his first day as Governor he cleaned out the Broward county elections office
They will be waiting for the Dems to try something
PA is where we need to worry about fraud now
This.
Let Desantis keep overwatch in FL, but the battle is in PA.
The philly unions' endorsement was a big win but vote fraud is the enemy we must destroy in PA.
Just had the morning news on to see what they are up to, REALLY pushing how cases are skyrocketing and hospitals are overflowing and how Trump fucked everything up. Like you said this could come back to bite them in the as bigly, Trump voters see through the bs and will go out and vote no matter what, will Dems?
Plus, they think Biden is winning due to the polls.
I think the whole poll farce + coronavirus farce is going to be piss poor Democrat real turnout. BUT WE STILL NEED THE VOTES TO BEAT THE FRAUD
Wonder how many registered Dems are voting for Trump?
The other key question
Well probably most of the blue collar union guys in the rust belt.
How the fuck is this race so close?
Seriously, look at biden and kamala. you are telling me they are pulling better in early voting in FL than hilldog did?
None of this shit adds up.
This should eb a GD blowout with that retard biden, WTF is going on? (other than massive fraud)
The country is extremely polarised. Half the country believes every lie the MSM tells about Trump. In reality, this election isn't Trump vs Biden, it's Trump vs the media
I'd like to know if anybody on either side of the aisle would honestly higher Biden to run their 7-Eleven
If you want to understand this split, you need to get how ignorance works and why censorship and information warfare are so ubiquitous in history - they are effective.
People who are casting their votes for Biden, most of them just don't know anything about anything. Mentally conditioned to believe whatever color blue says, and automatically reject anything that goes against it. They don't know about Biden's gaffes and mental states - hell most of them probably literally never once heard Biden speak. They just heard news anchors talk about Biden. Same goes for Kamala.
They don't watch debates, they don't watch rallies. Their entirely worldview, if examined in a memory stack would find almost ever root to be originating from a passing glimpse of reading the title of some fake news article (but never the article itself)
It's not close, we're winning.
Because this year all the Demonrats have been pushed to vote by mail, them having the same advantage as 2016 means that they are getting destroyed tomorrow.
They blew their load already. Tomorrow is our turn.
My only guess is more democrats than usual voted early this year because of Covid.
There is no way all the registered Dems are voting for Biden. I wont believe it till I see it.
Hillary had a larger lead in florida on election night. How are you saying Biden was better? The democrats blew their load on early voting and are still getting a smackdown.
The Demonrats narrative of "we need mail-in voting because voting in person is not safe" is really biting them in the ass now.
Polls are not closed today in all of FL!!! He has updated since, there are two big red counties open today for IPEV
Edit: Gulf and Bay counties are open today for voting.
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1323265267795812352?s=20
Edit 2: I said that these are big red counties. For clarification, I don't mean that they are particularly populous, but that GOP has a 30%+ lead in both.
so 'blue' counties are stifling the in-person vote now? what's their justification?
No. Early voting is typically not open on the Monday before the election (in FL), but early voting was disrupted in these counties due to weather issues. They added the extra day today to make up for it.
Yeah have seen that now. Thanks for updating!
Well it is still very close. 1 million population increase is equal to a 5% increase. 96.4*1.05=101.2, this means that dems are 3.4 k ahead of the 2016 target. Trump won by 1.2% in 2016 so it is crucial that everyone in Florida actually turns out to vote. Assuming an independent split of 50% this puts Biden ahead by 1 point in the early vote.
At this point in time 8.8 million votes have been cast, compared to 9.5 million total in 2016. So on election day there may only be 1 million more votes cast. To win Trump needs at least 55% of these votes to go his way. 61% if he wants the same lead as in 2016. I do not know what the EV turnout looked like in 2016.
Have to call it though, he was much more optimistic last week on where we would be today. Not sure how much confidence I have in this guy anymore. Also not sure why we would count on low election day turnout for dems.
Yeah he was confident R's would be leading come election day, so it's a little disappointing
Dem's have consistently said they won't vote on Election day though. From the latest Rasmussen Florida poll
Every poll will say something similar. Only about 30-40% of Dems says they will vote on Election day
That would be excellent news, a 60/40 GOP advantage in the tight states would crush dems. Anything closer to 50/50 not so much. Hard to tell as usual. Also its important GOP meets or exceeds 2016, any COVID shyness etc. would be bad. I am NOT taking D flip for Trump as a major factor, thats not how it works. Its usually a wash. We need bigger turnout, plain and simple.
Have the votes actually been counted or is this just the number of people registered Democrat who voted? Are we assuming they all voted Biden?
No and yes. Obviously there is some crossover on both sides, but this is just comparing registered Dems votes in 2020 to 2016
So are we thinking that the 10,000 increase is people voting early out of fear of Covid?
Sky News Australia is pretty based. They just had a professor from Griffith University on that is a machine learning expert and has an amazing record on predicting events. Says he just finished crunching the numbers for Florida and he says 3.1% win to Trump.
What has not been figured in is how many Dem voters are voting Trump. I'd guess an easy 20+%.
Why are they closing polls the day before the election?
Polls for early voting
DeSantis cleaned out Broward after 2018(well hopefully) hoping they don't feature too much this year
Voting in Fl tomorrow morning!
My county a has been reliably blue for some time but I'm hoping for a shift. Even if it stays cucked, there's no way the rest of the state isn't going to MAGA.
+29 electoral votes
This is huge. I don't want to guarantee anything, because anything can happen, but this is not only pointing towards Trump winning Florida, it's pointing towards a Trump BLOWOUT in Florida (remember, among likely voters voting on Election, Trump has a 18-20 point lead).
If Trump blows out Biden in Florida, there's a carry-over effect. That bodes well for Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
All that said, no guarantees. GO OUT AND VOTE!!!!
I feel like I just saw a post that said Dems were up by 260,000 early votes going into the election in 2016. Was that wrong or is this wrong?
Yeah I saw that one, I think they got confused with 2018
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ lots of cool info
I wonder how to find VA numbers.