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It was released in March because it's based entirely on the primaries. I've seen a lot of people use it as evidence of a Trump win because it's been so accurate in the past, but it's severely diminished this time because Trump ran unopposed in the primaries.
While I'm skeptical of the 362 prediction, Trump running unopposed is taken into account by the model.
It looks at turnout in the primaries. Trump had an unprecedented turnout for his nomination, bigger than Obama in 2012.
This means that there's an enormous enthusiasm and support from the base, because people showed up to deliver a symbolic vote.
I can't see my parents for Christmas or Thanksgiving in NY because of cuomo. Biden promises to raise their taxes and they still vote blue. Meanwhile I'm out here in Michigan paying a 9% effective tax rate making 5x as much as them. Biden hasn't promised them one thing. Trump is the reason why they pay almost nothing in taxes.
Red New York has been something I've been obsessing over for the past 2 years and the only way it could happen is if the entire upstate area, including Albany, just decide to team up and tell NYC to eat shit. But I cant imagine a scenario where this happens, but New Hampshire which is just on the edge of tipping red remains blue
The Dem dominance in NYC is based on dominating the minority vote. Trump will do better with minorities than any republican in 60 years. Every state is in play. Fucking vote!
That looks like a completely different model. It’s even called “Primary Model”, instead of Norpoth, and is on a bootleg-looking site not using SSL/TLS. ???
"I'm only gonna say this once Jack. Old Man Norpoth used to come out of his tool shed on Hickoryville Lane and mosey down to the schoolyard to give ice cream pops to the black kids. I remember enjoying quite a few myself and if you think I'm calling me a liar about that, then you don't know enough about giving people the business like I do."
I jokingly predicted NY would flip earlier in the election cycle. I am still slightly hopeful, but I don't think we're going to make it. Norpoth is straight up calling it for Trump. This is what you would call the best case scenario/wish map.
It's a formula/forecasting model that he created. He just plugs primary data into it and let's it run, so there's zero bias in it.
The only two elections from 1912 to 2016 that it gets wrong are 1960 (Nixon/Kennedy) and 2000 (Bush/Gore). Both tight races and both with accusations of voter fraud. So it has a 93% success rate at predicting the winner.
But, because it's those two elections that it misses, I'm more inclined to believe those elections were stolen than that the model is wrong.
I can’t imagine NY goes red unless they mean commie red. NYC runs the whole show. I mean, it’d be pretty cool (and still vote NY pedes) but this is a lot.
This model was released in March so I call bullshit.
The only way NY could go red is if enough normies get pissed off because of
The only chance we get is that tons of new voters join in and vote for Trump just because of these bullshits
It was released in March because it's based entirely on the primaries. I've seen a lot of people use it as evidence of a Trump win because it's been so accurate in the past, but it's severely diminished this time because Trump ran unopposed in the primaries.
While I'm skeptical of the 362 prediction, Trump running unopposed is taken into account by the model.
It looks at turnout in the primaries. Trump had an unprecedented turnout for his nomination, bigger than Obama in 2012. This means that there's an enormous enthusiasm and support from the base, because people showed up to deliver a symbolic vote.
It takes into account an incumbent running unopposed. In that situation getting ~70% of the vote is good. Trump regularly got 90+.
It uses data from every election since 1912.
I explain here: https://thedonald.win/p/HrOzRpRe/how-to-win-arguments-against-the/
I read every word of the linked post. Very uplifting
I read and responded there.
But what did the NY primaries do to make this model predict NY flipping?
That map has nothing to do with Norporth. The model predicts 362 EVs for Trump, but it doesn't say which states.
What? How can it predict 362 Electoral votes without saying which states?
If it doesn't predict individual states it can only predict the national popular vote in percentage, not Electoral College votes.
Not true. Bill Weld former governor of MA ran against him. And it’s based entirely on NH (and incorporated SC this year).
Little Willy Weld was running against Big Dick Don.
March. No wonder I can't find it in its original form anywhere.
I can't see my parents for Christmas or Thanksgiving in NY because of cuomo. Biden promises to raise their taxes and they still vote blue. Meanwhile I'm out here in Michigan paying a 9% effective tax rate making 5x as much as them. Biden hasn't promised them one thing. Trump is the reason why they pay almost nothing in taxes.
Leftists want to pay higher taxes, because they'd rather give their money to refugees' children than to their own children.
Or if NYC was bled out enough to completely demoralize them.
Red New York has been something I've been obsessing over for the past 2 years and the only way it could happen is if the entire upstate area, including Albany, just decide to team up and tell NYC to eat shit. But I cant imagine a scenario where this happens, but New Hampshire which is just on the edge of tipping red remains blue
There are too many brainwashed cucks here in the city, I'm hoping enough of them ran back to their parents because of the lockdowns.
The lockdowm, the nursing homes, Cuomo pissing off the NYPD, the stores destroyed...
Remember, Giuliani was mayor of NYC not too long ago. It's not unfathomable.
The Dem dominance in NYC is based on dominating the minority vote. Trump will do better with minorities than any republican in 60 years. Every state is in play. Fucking vote!
Hard to believe we win that while losing NH
Trafalgar has NH very close now
I am sure a lot of people are uneasy with him targetting the Jews for one....
This map is not associated with his model - the model does not predict individual state results
True, but it does predict 362
That looks like a completely different model. It’s even called “Primary Model”, instead of Norpoth, and is on a bootleg-looking site not using SSL/TLS. ???
You're right on both counts. Site is terrible and I lazily just duckgoed Norpoth Model and spaffed up the first thing I saw. Completely busted!
I bet if you asked Joe if he's ever heard of the Norpoth Poll, he'd tell you that's where Snatanickclause rides his zoomnflynreindeer.
"I'm only gonna say this once Jack. Old Man Norpoth used to come out of his tool shed on Hickoryville Lane and mosey down to the schoolyard to give ice cream pops to the black kids. I remember enjoying quite a few myself and if you think I'm calling me a liar about that, then you don't know enough about giving people the business like I do."
I made a post about this today but...
NY blue?
Before NH and VA?
That seems impossible.
Did this model run individual predictions per every state?
It's based on Primary turnout.
But was it done at national level, or state by state?
Norpoth didn't predict individual states, only probability at the national level. (Maybe he did electoral college too?)
His probability for a Trump win was in the mid 90s.
But then how did he come up with the number 362, and assigning each state?
Dunno, but his page is here:
http://primarymodel.com
NH had the most primary turnout for GEOTUS though. Its going red before any of these other states
DON'T GET COMPLACENT PEDES!! VOTE AS IF THIS MAP WAS INVERSED!!
I'm from Long Island and I'll say this: If NY goes red I'm going to have a pussy-slaying erection until the midterms.
I mean I hope it happens but I can't see Hawaii and NY going red
Please be real, please be real.
I jokingly predicted NY would flip earlier in the election cycle. I am still slightly hopeful, but I don't think we're going to make it. Norpoth is straight up calling it for Trump. This is what you would call the best case scenario/wish map.
If we flipped either NY, CA, or IL; the left would pull their eyes out.
Let's make this model be wrong because it's too blue, yeah?
I'd be shocked if NY went RED
Joking but, if they predicted 2016 which 2 did they get wrong? lol.
It's a formula/forecasting model that he created. He just plugs primary data into it and let's it run, so there's zero bias in it.
The only two elections from 1912 to 2016 that it gets wrong are 1960 (Nixon/Kennedy) and 2000 (Bush/Gore). Both tight races and both with accusations of voter fraud. So it has a 93% success rate at predicting the winner.
But, because it's those two elections that it misses, I'm more inclined to believe those elections were stolen than that the model is wrong.
Fake news. NY red, but not NH. That's how you know it is BS.
I predicted 346. I kept NY and HI blue while OR and CO red
Im suspicious of hawaii, but I hope they're right.
I made a post a few weeks back explainimg the flaws in traditional polling and the Norpoth Primary Model
https://thedonald.win/p/HrOzRpRe/how-to-win-arguments-against-the/
New York for Trump?
Doubtful, but I'd love to see that.
I can’t imagine NY goes red unless they mean commie red. NYC runs the whole show. I mean, it’d be pretty cool (and still vote NY pedes) but this is a lot.
No way NY flips
Real grown man tears of joy.
If NY turns red I will literally be laughing for weeks
Id die! Id love to see this, but not die from sheer joy!!!!!!
Even if this was spot on last time I still call bs on places like NY and New Mexico go into red but not NH or Maine.