Trump got 41.35% in NJ in 2016. Central NJ has a rapidly growing Orthodox Jewish community (over 95% pro-Trump), and lots of Italians angry about Columbus. It reelected Chris Christie for governor in a landslide in 2013.
Trump got 36.52% in NY state in 2016. NY has a more Dem-slanted PVI, and a higher percentage of population growth comes from immigrants and ethnic groups less likely to support Trump. A lot of immigrants move to NY first, and are more likely to move out if they're not total commies. Not counting Never-Trumper Pataki, NY didn't have a Republican governor since the 70s (and they probably would have been Never-Trumpers too).
Its not as statistical to be honest. More of a gut feeling like when you see the enthusiasm and amount of trump signs in a place youd never thought in a million years would see them. so that, with the hasidic jewish population in brooklyn, + nassau and suffolk and staten island + upstate, the only thing left carrying the ny is manhattan queens and half of brooklyn. However, unlike 2016, Americans were directly attacked this year including immigrants who live in queens and brooklyn, many of whom own small businesses that were raked over the coals because of covid. Now add a mass exodus from the city and you have a smaller population of voters in manhattan which may balance things out. And on top of all that you have the covid fear that the dems put into their voter base. Like i said its a gut feeling based on what my eyes are showing me + what I am hopeful for.
It'd like to hear those arguments.
Trump got 41.35% in NJ in 2016. Central NJ has a rapidly growing Orthodox Jewish community (over 95% pro-Trump), and lots of Italians angry about Columbus. It reelected Chris Christie for governor in a landslide in 2013.
Trump got 36.52% in NY state in 2016. NY has a more Dem-slanted PVI, and a higher percentage of population growth comes from immigrants and ethnic groups less likely to support Trump. A lot of immigrants move to NY first, and are more likely to move out if they're not total commies. Not counting Never-Trumper Pataki, NY didn't have a Republican governor since the 70s (and they probably would have been Never-Trumpers too).
Its not as statistical to be honest. More of a gut feeling like when you see the enthusiasm and amount of trump signs in a place youd never thought in a million years would see them. so that, with the hasidic jewish population in brooklyn, + nassau and suffolk and staten island + upstate, the only thing left carrying the ny is manhattan queens and half of brooklyn. However, unlike 2016, Americans were directly attacked this year including immigrants who live in queens and brooklyn, many of whom own small businesses that were raked over the coals because of covid. Now add a mass exodus from the city and you have a smaller population of voters in manhattan which may balance things out. And on top of all that you have the covid fear that the dems put into their voter base. Like i said its a gut feeling based on what my eyes are showing me + what I am hopeful for.