What are typical / optimistic / pessimistic numbers for % of registered Republicans / Democrats that will cross-over and vote for the other party's candidate, and same question as far as expected split for unaffiliated voters?
Our goal was to cut the Democrat IPEV+VBM total to at or under 150k by Election Day for a comfortable advantage for Republicans going into Election Day. We EASILY hit that on I think Thursday last week.
I read an article in PA about how Obama/Obama/Clinton captured 77/75/71% of D voters while McCain/Romney/Trump got a higher and higher share of R's (over 80% I think). Of course if there are significantly more registered Dems than this doesn't equate to victory.
If anyone knew this stuff for sure we wouldn't have to wait for the results tonight, we could just project it and be done.
Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?
There's the PA data and breakdown, really it's an eye opening read.
For independent voters the math I saw going into 2016 is that roughly 30% of (I) vote for mostly Republicans and 30% vote mostly Democrat, so they aren't as 'swingable' as people like to think. If you look at the kind of people in the rust belt who switched their votes from bush to obama then back to trump...my guess is that if your message is good enough to convert some of the other party you're probably getting a plurality or majority of independents too.
It’s an optimistically theory vote based on us winning the independent/3rd party vote. I don’t understand the dude spreading it around, maybe a shill to get some lazy fence sitters not to? As of 8am we were down by ~140k early votes (so that means today is only in person or outstanding mail ins). I drove by all 3 of my areas voting polls and they were barren, people need to go vote.
This election is unprecedented so that stuff doesn't have any way of being known.
I'd suggest to use it as simply as possible. You can expect that 'red' counties will have more Trump voters than 'blue' counties. And vice versa for Biden.
Same with voter registrations. Your average GOP registered voter will be more likely (not guaranteed) to vote Trump than Biden. And same for Dems > Biden.
From that perspective the numbers look good. Not guaranteed barnstormer blow-the-doors-off good like some people are saying here. But good.
The X factor (which no one has an answer for or they'd be very, VERY wealthy) is how indies swing. That's all that matters.
Looking at https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ right now:
What are typical / optimistic / pessimistic numbers for % of registered Republicans / Democrats that will cross-over and vote for the other party's candidate, and same question as far as expected split for unaffiliated voters?
Do we have those numbers for 2016?
Our goal was to cut the Democrat IPEV+VBM total to at or under 150k by Election Day for a comfortable advantage for Republicans going into Election Day. We EASILY hit that on I think Thursday last week.
I read an article in PA about how Obama/Obama/Clinton captured 77/75/71% of D voters while McCain/Romney/Trump got a higher and higher share of R's (over 80% I think). Of course if there are significantly more registered Dems than this doesn't equate to victory.
If anyone knew this stuff for sure we wouldn't have to wait for the results tonight, we could just project it and be done.
Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?
Ah I finally found the link, I knew I put it somewhere.
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/18/pres-obama-headed-to-philadephia-and-the-reason-is-in-the-numbers-bad-numbers-for-joe-biden/
There's the PA data and breakdown, really it's an eye opening read.
For independent voters the math I saw going into 2016 is that roughly 30% of (I) vote for mostly Republicans and 30% vote mostly Democrat, so they aren't as 'swingable' as people like to think. If you look at the kind of people in the rust belt who switched their votes from bush to obama then back to trump...my guess is that if your message is good enough to convert some of the other party you're probably getting a plurality or majority of independents too.
It’s an optimistically theory vote based on us winning the independent/3rd party vote. I don’t understand the dude spreading it around, maybe a shill to get some lazy fence sitters not to? As of 8am we were down by ~140k early votes (so that means today is only in person or outstanding mail ins). I drove by all 3 of my areas voting polls and they were barren, people need to go vote.
This election is unprecedented so that stuff doesn't have any way of being known.
I'd suggest to use it as simply as possible. You can expect that 'red' counties will have more Trump voters than 'blue' counties. And vice versa for Biden.
Same with voter registrations. Your average GOP registered voter will be more likely (not guaranteed) to vote Trump than Biden. And same for Dems > Biden.
From that perspective the numbers look good. Not guaranteed barnstormer blow-the-doors-off good like some people are saying here. But good.
The X factor (which no one has an answer for or they'd be very, VERY wealthy) is how indies swing. That's all that matters.
I haven't figured out how that site works or what it means.