Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?
There's the PA data and breakdown, really it's an eye opening read.
For independent voters the math I saw going into 2016 is that roughly 30% of (I) vote for mostly Republicans and 30% vote mostly Democrat, so they aren't as 'swingable' as people like to think. If you look at the kind of people in the rust belt who switched their votes from bush to obama then back to trump...my guess is that if your message is good enough to convert some of the other party you're probably getting a plurality or majority of independents too.
Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?
Ah I finally found the link, I knew I put it somewhere.
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/18/pres-obama-headed-to-philadephia-and-the-reason-is-in-the-numbers-bad-numbers-for-joe-biden/
There's the PA data and breakdown, really it's an eye opening read.
For independent voters the math I saw going into 2016 is that roughly 30% of (I) vote for mostly Republicans and 30% vote mostly Democrat, so they aren't as 'swingable' as people like to think. If you look at the kind of people in the rust belt who switched their votes from bush to obama then back to trump...my guess is that if your message is good enough to convert some of the other party you're probably getting a plurality or majority of independents too.