What are typical / optimistic / pessimistic numbers for % of registered Republicans / Democrats that will cross-over and vote for the other party's candidate, and same question as far as expected split for unaffiliated voters?
I read an article in PA about how Obama/Obama/Clinton captured 77/75/71% of D voters while McCain/Romney/Trump got a higher and higher share of R's (over 80% I think). Of course if there are significantly more registered Dems than this doesn't equate to victory.
If anyone knew this stuff for sure we wouldn't have to wait for the results tonight, we could just project it and be done.
Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?
Looking at https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ right now:
What are typical / optimistic / pessimistic numbers for % of registered Republicans / Democrats that will cross-over and vote for the other party's candidate, and same question as far as expected split for unaffiliated voters?
Do we have those numbers for 2016?
I read an article in PA about how Obama/Obama/Clinton captured 77/75/71% of D voters while McCain/Romney/Trump got a higher and higher share of R's (over 80% I think). Of course if there are significantly more registered Dems than this doesn't equate to victory.
If anyone knew this stuff for sure we wouldn't have to wait for the results tonight, we could just project it and be done.
Thanks for that info! Yeah, my hunch was (and still is) that we'll have far fewer "defections" among R voters than among D voters. (I'd been thinking maybe 15-20% of D voters would cross over but only 10%-ish of R voters, but it sounds like both of those numbers could be higher.) Any idea about how independent voters in Florida or nationally have split historically?