You're right to avoid complacency. The optimistic news is that Trump came in with something like 95% approval amongst Republicans a few weeks ago, which is a record high and maybe even higher than Ronald Reagan had in 1984.
On the other hand, those who claim to be voting for Biden have given significantly lower enthusiasm numbers than Trump supporters. About twice as many Trump supporters have described themselves as "enthusiastic" as have supporters of Biden.
I think the likely thing here is that Republicans who were going to leave the party over Trump left in 2016/2017. Few stuck around for 2020 to switch-- on the other hand, those that were going to leave the Dems over Biden will do so in 2020/2021.
I just hope none of those Republican ballots are for Biden. If there's dems voting for Trump, couldn't there be republicans voting for Biden?
There may be a handful. But given the massive enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor, I expect far more Dems voted Trump than Republicans voted Slow Joe.
Well, I hope so. I'm just trying not be complacent or too overly optimistic. I want the Republicans to win so badly today.
You're right to avoid complacency. The optimistic news is that Trump came in with something like 95% approval amongst Republicans a few weeks ago, which is a record high and maybe even higher than Ronald Reagan had in 1984.
On the other hand, those who claim to be voting for Biden have given significantly lower enthusiasm numbers than Trump supporters. About twice as many Trump supporters have described themselves as "enthusiastic" as have supporters of Biden.
I think the likely thing here is that Republicans who were going to leave the party over Trump left in 2016/2017. Few stuck around for 2020 to switch-- on the other hand, those that were going to leave the Dems over Biden will do so in 2020/2021.