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Trump won PA last election, and there's no way he lost any support. I've yet to find meet a single person across the US who said they voted Trump last time and aren't this time (but have met plenty of people the other way around). Given that his numbers are going up among black and hispanics, this already seems promising. Heck, I didn't vote for him in 2016, but I certainly did today.
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Biden blows it in debate #2 with his oil comments. Google showed one of the biggest search terms that night/next day were "how to change my vote."
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Blowout numbers in rallies across PA, including 58,000 people 2 days ago in Butler, PA.
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I drove across Pennsylvania a month ago across multiple days of travel and saw nothing but Trump signs. Admittedly, I wasn't in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh but, see #5 below. Lancaster was 60 to 4 Trump over Biden for signs before I stopped counting. Gettysburgh was the only area competitively matched. Allegheny was insane- literally straight Trump supporters for HOURS.
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Rioting definitely wakes people up and, with the recent Philadelphia riots, I can't imagine this isn't sounding the alarm bells for a percentage of Democratic voters just in time for voting.
If there weren't so many issues happening right now in PA poll stations, I would have to reason that Trump has PA. Turning people away at poll stations and other various hijinx could be a big variable. Allegheny supposedly even has experienced closed stations, making people who would have voted Trump wait in endless lines and return to work without voting.
As long as Democrats don't pull off the voter fraud scheme of the century, you're right.