I'm glad you asked. Using a statistics package called R, which is free to download, you can get the answer to that question. The function you want is called pbinom, and that's the probability of getting x number of successes out of n trials when the probability of success is p. So what are the odds that a batch of 138,000 ballots in Michigan contains zero Trump votes? Well let's say that those ballots come from a place where Biden is favored 99 to 1. If that's the case then the probability of zero Trump votes is pbinom(0, 138000, .01) and the answer is zero. As someone else said, so small that my computer cannot represent it.
In order to get a one percent chance of Trump getting zero votes in a stack of 138,000 we have to expect that he only gets one vote out of every 30,000:
pretty convenient that the states that Biden said he was feeling "really good about" both had complete vertical lines that propelled him to the lead
I'm glad you asked. Using a statistics package called R, which is free to download, you can get the answer to that question. The function you want is called pbinom, and that's the probability of getting x number of successes out of n trials when the probability of success is p. So what are the odds that a batch of 138,000 ballots in Michigan contains zero Trump votes? Well let's say that those ballots come from a place where Biden is favored 99 to 1. If that's the case then the probability of zero Trump votes is pbinom(0, 138000, .01) and the answer is zero. As someone else said, so small that my computer cannot represent it.
In order to get a one percent chance of Trump getting zero votes in a stack of 138,000 we have to expect that he only gets one vote out of every 30,000:
pbinom(0, 138000, 1/30000) * 100 = 1.005107
My pede. This guy maths & techs.