For AZ, Maricopa county is the big one. They have over 4m registered voters and about 500k outstanding ballots to count. In 2016, Trump carried Maricopa by 3.5% (48.1% to 44.6%). Right now Biden is ahead 51% to 48%.
For the remaining ballots, we can expect a swing of +5 to +7 for Trump, meaning he should be able to pick up a plus 35k - 55k in yet to be counted ballots just in that county.
All other outstanding counties are red. If he picks up 45k in Maricopa, he needs to scrape another 45k ish together in other counties (Biden currently up by 93,016). With the amount still outstanding, it's doable for sure.
For AZ, Maricopa county is the big one. They have over 4m registered voters and about 500k outstanding ballots to count. In 2016, Trump carried Maricopa by 3.5% (48.1% to 44.6%). Right now Biden is ahead 51% to 48%. For the remaining ballots, we can expect a swing of +5 to +7 for Trump, meaning he should be able to pick up a plus 35k - 55k in yet to be counted ballots just in that county. All other outstanding counties are red. If he picks up 45k in Maricopa, he needs to scrape another 45k ish together in other counties (Biden currently up by 93,016). With the amount still outstanding, it's doable for sure.