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Someone give me the rundown on how we maintain PA. I keep hearing its as good as ours and then i hear theres a bazillion ballots outstanding all for Biden lol
Saw this quote from another pede on here in regards to the current situation (sorry I forgot who posted this comment!)
"In PA it seems that Philly has only reported 70% of votes, that's it folks just one county with a ratio of 4 biden for 1 trump, even at that atrocious rate, there Are still plenty of high trump counties in the 80 to 90% reporting area, enough to bolster trumps lead, they need 200k to flip trumps current margin, add another 50k from all the remaining red counties and Philly alone can't do it, they gotta show Atleast 20% trump overall, else it's too obvious"
karl rove said we need to maintain 30% of the remaining ballots. no idea how many are left and where.
30% seems like a low enough bar
rove also said their needs to be people on the ground to Preserve all leads. harder to take back votes than to preserve.
Just looking at the counties, Phil countiy with 23% remaining would get biden another 131K votes if that % holds. Most of the other blue counties are all in.
The 131K still wouldn't make up for Bidens deficit right now.
I think even if Biden got 100% of what is remaining in PHil county he still couldn't catch up.
Plus almost every red county has votes still out. Some of them quite large. So Trump will continue picking up 100 here, 1000 there etc. So I don't see how Biden overcome's that. Unless they cheat.
Philly is probably a 75/25 split
I may have modeled that wrong though. I'm guessing the % reporting is only precincts.
in 2016 there were 692K votes. So if Biden was at 80%, and the same # of votes come in then he'll pick up 127K. So about the same I guess.
The unknown here is how many more votes there are in 2020 vs 2016. Currently Trump is outperforming his 2016 # so I don't understand how the fuck Biden is winning this state. Lots of light red paint on the counties though.. so lots of Red to still add in.
I guarantee there's bullshit in Philly.... South philly came out for Trump HARD. Biden won philly..... but I call bullshit if he won it by more than Clinton did
Trump campaign predicted a win by 30-50k. It’ll be tight