Not exactly. Right now (11:55 Nov 4)..
Biden: 2,419,589 vs Trump 2,434,354 = 14,765 votes (that's 4k lower then when I ehcked when the announcement was made...so who knows where we were at then).
When I checked earlier, Biden needed 70% of the vote...now he needs slightly less than that. So, who knows how many votes are still outstanding and where the vote count was when this 60k figure was announced. When I checked right afterword, Biden needed 70+% of the vote to win.
A federal election is supposed to go to a runoff because neither candidate will have 50%+1 vote. That is strange, because I don't think they can do that for the president as the electoral college votes before the runoff time.
They do say that they can do a recount if the margin is within .5%. So, GA is going to a recount.
So, joe needs 65.13% of the outstanding votes to gain 18,141 on trump.
Check:
65.13%*60,000 = 39,078 votes for Joe
(1-.6513)60,000 = 20,922 for Trump (20,922+39078)=60,000
39078 - 20922 = 18,156 (rounding error)
but, 2414787+2432928 +60 k = 4,907,715 total votes expected (not actually correct, because we are ignoring the third party votes...so this is only the total we expect to go for Trump + Biden.
This 65% of the vote he would need is achievable from some counties, but not others. So, we will see.
Update: (2:33 pm). Joe: 2,423,595 Trump 2,436,420 = 4,860,015 votes total. 4,907,715 target = 47,700 votes left. with a 12,825 votes biden needs to make up.
2Joe%=100 + 12,825/47,700 = 63.4%
So it would imply that Joe is getting a little better than 65% in the first batch that were counted since noon.
Thanks for typing that! The numbers make my head swim, but I'm obsessed with watching them. I've been keeping a close eye on the GA updates and they've really slowed down. They've only added a total of 1,541 in the last three updates I've seen combined (last hour and a half or so). I'm hopeful (but not overly optimistic) that 60,000 was a lie and they're running out of ballots to count. Most sites have said 99% reporting all day, and (if accurate), that would make the remaining votes be far less than 60k.
If there are 60,000 votes to be counted, Trump will have to get
43%34.9% of them to win the state.They've counted about 10,000 votes since and announcement and Trump is pulling 28.6%
Not exactly. Right now (11:55 Nov 4).. Biden: 2,419,589 vs Trump 2,434,354 = 14,765 votes (that's 4k lower then when I ehcked when the announcement was made...so who knows where we were at then).
60k votes @ 43% = 25,800 to Biden, 34, 200 Trump = 8,400 Votes.
When I checked earlier, Biden needed 70% of the vote...now he needs slightly less than that. So, who knows how many votes are still outstanding and where the vote count was when this 60k figure was announced. When I checked right afterword, Biden needed 70+% of the vote to win.
Hey you're right. I think that means he needed 34.9% (at time of announcement). Does you think this look correct?
((Total Votes / 2) - Current Trump Votes) / Remaining
((2414787+2432928+60000) / 2) - 2432928) / 60000 = 34.9%
Also, according to this website: https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/recount-laws-in-georgia-what-are-the-rules
A federal election is supposed to go to a runoff because neither candidate will have 50%+1 vote. That is strange, because I don't think they can do that for the president as the electoral college votes before the runoff time.
They do say that they can do a recount if the margin is within .5%. So, GA is going to a recount.
Now a runoff is something I hadn't thought about! It looks like neither had 50% in Wisconsin, either, and there were almost 57k third party votes.
Hmm, not sure.
This is the way I would calculate it...
Trumps lead (then). = 2,414,787 = 18, 141 votes. This is what Joe needs to gain in the 60k votes counted.
What percent of 60,000 does Joe need to gain 18,141 votes on Trump?
Joe% * 60,000 - Trump% * 60,000 = 18,141
Joe% - Trump % = .30235 = 30.26%
Joe needs to exceed Trump by 30.26% , Joe + Trump = 100% (ignore 3rd party), Trump = (100% - Joe%)
Joe% - (100 - Joe%) = 30.26% 2Joe%=100.26% Joe%= 65.13%
So, joe needs 65.13% of the outstanding votes to gain 18,141 on trump.
Check:
65.13%*60,000 = 39,078 votes for Joe (1-.6513)60,000 = 20,922 for Trump (20,922+39078)=60,000
39078 - 20922 = 18,156 (rounding error)
but, 2414787+2432928 +60 k = 4,907,715 total votes expected (not actually correct, because we are ignoring the third party votes...so this is only the total we expect to go for Trump + Biden.
This 65% of the vote he would need is achievable from some counties, but not others. So, we will see.
Update: (2:33 pm). Joe: 2,423,595 Trump 2,436,420 = 4,860,015 votes total. 4,907,715 target = 47,700 votes left. with a 12,825 votes biden needs to make up.
2Joe%=100 + 12,825/47,700 = 63.4%
So it would imply that Joe is getting a little better than 65% in the first batch that were counted since noon.
Thanks for typing that! The numbers make my head swim, but I'm obsessed with watching them. I've been keeping a close eye on the GA updates and they've really slowed down. They've only added a total of 1,541 in the last three updates I've seen combined (last hour and a half or so). I'm hopeful (but not overly optimistic) that 60,000 was a lie and they're running out of ballots to count. Most sites have said 99% reporting all day, and (if accurate), that would make the remaining votes be far less than 60k.