A federal election is supposed to go to a runoff because neither candidate will have 50%+1 vote. That is strange, because I don't think they can do that for the president as the electoral college votes before the runoff time.
They do say that they can do a recount if the margin is within .5%. So, GA is going to a recount.
So, joe needs 65.13% of the outstanding votes to gain 18,141 on trump.
Check:
65.13%*60,000 = 39,078 votes for Joe
(1-.6513)60,000 = 20,922 for Trump (20,922+39078)=60,000
39078 - 20922 = 18,156 (rounding error)
but, 2414787+2432928 +60 k = 4,907,715 total votes expected (not actually correct, because we are ignoring the third party votes...so this is only the total we expect to go for Trump + Biden.
This 65% of the vote he would need is achievable from some counties, but not others. So, we will see.
Update: (2:33 pm). Joe: 2,423,595 Trump 2,436,420 = 4,860,015 votes total. 4,907,715 target = 47,700 votes left. with a 12,825 votes biden needs to make up.
2Joe%=100 + 12,825/47,700 = 63.4%
So it would imply that Joe is getting a little better than 65% in the first batch that were counted since noon.
Thanks for typing that! The numbers make my head swim, but I'm obsessed with watching them. I've been keeping a close eye on the GA updates and they've really slowed down. They've only added a total of 1,541 in the last three updates I've seen combined (last hour and a half or so). I'm hopeful (but not overly optimistic) that 60,000 was a lie and they're running out of ballots to count. Most sites have said 99% reporting all day, and (if accurate), that would make the remaining votes be far less than 60k.
Hey you're right. I think that means he needed 34.9% (at time of announcement). Does you think this look correct?
((Total Votes / 2) - Current Trump Votes) / Remaining
((2414787+2432928+60000) / 2) - 2432928) / 60000 = 34.9%
Also, according to this website: https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/recount-laws-in-georgia-what-are-the-rules
A federal election is supposed to go to a runoff because neither candidate will have 50%+1 vote. That is strange, because I don't think they can do that for the president as the electoral college votes before the runoff time.
They do say that they can do a recount if the margin is within .5%. So, GA is going to a recount.
Now a runoff is something I hadn't thought about! It looks like neither had 50% in Wisconsin, either, and there were almost 57k third party votes.
Hmm, not sure.
This is the way I would calculate it...
Trumps lead (then). = 2,414,787 = 18, 141 votes. This is what Joe needs to gain in the 60k votes counted.
What percent of 60,000 does Joe need to gain 18,141 votes on Trump?
Joe% * 60,000 - Trump% * 60,000 = 18,141
Joe% - Trump % = .30235 = 30.26%
Joe needs to exceed Trump by 30.26% , Joe + Trump = 100% (ignore 3rd party), Trump = (100% - Joe%)
Joe% - (100 - Joe%) = 30.26% 2Joe%=100.26% Joe%= 65.13%
So, joe needs 65.13% of the outstanding votes to gain 18,141 on trump.
Check:
65.13%*60,000 = 39,078 votes for Joe (1-.6513)60,000 = 20,922 for Trump (20,922+39078)=60,000
39078 - 20922 = 18,156 (rounding error)
but, 2414787+2432928 +60 k = 4,907,715 total votes expected (not actually correct, because we are ignoring the third party votes...so this is only the total we expect to go for Trump + Biden.
This 65% of the vote he would need is achievable from some counties, but not others. So, we will see.
Update: (2:33 pm). Joe: 2,423,595 Trump 2,436,420 = 4,860,015 votes total. 4,907,715 target = 47,700 votes left. with a 12,825 votes biden needs to make up.
2Joe%=100 + 12,825/47,700 = 63.4%
So it would imply that Joe is getting a little better than 65% in the first batch that were counted since noon.
Thanks for typing that! The numbers make my head swim, but I'm obsessed with watching them. I've been keeping a close eye on the GA updates and they've really slowed down. They've only added a total of 1,541 in the last three updates I've seen combined (last hour and a half or so). I'm hopeful (but not overly optimistic) that 60,000 was a lie and they're running out of ballots to count. Most sites have said 99% reporting all day, and (if accurate), that would make the remaining votes be far less than 60k.
No problem...Update so it's clear (I mixed up 100% verses 1.0 = 100% above)...So, based upon the 4:14 updates
Biden: 2,425,411 Trump: 2,438,206: = 12,795 vote lead with ~ 44,063 votes left.
Biden now needs: (1+12795/44063)/2 = .645 = 64.5% of the 44,063 remaining votes.