I can certainly do it in more counties and find the difference in how well Trump and Biden fit the line, but since most of the cheating is going on in the battleground state dem counties, it will show up there a lot more than anywhere else. This is why I kept the scope this narrow for these graphs (I used federal precinct/ward data within the contested counties).
Yeah, I can probably do it in Clayton, Maricopa, and Vegas, then move onto other large counties that are not vital to winning the election. Thanks for the suggestion!
Thank you for your efforts! I am far from a mathy or stats guy, but I would think finding similar sample sizes in non-competitive locations - including those Trump carried at the highest levels - and see if you can find any similar deviations from Benford. If we are looking for Biden, they are looking for the same in Trump to put doubt in the mind of the judges/public.
Good point, I can see how well both candidates fit the data (to get an actual number for how extreme the fraud is) and compare that to other trump-dominated counties.
Do all 50 states. Yes, I'm serious. If I knew how to do this shit, I would!
I suspect the states currently at the center of all this will show massive discrepancies.
I can certainly do it in more counties and find the difference in how well Trump and Biden fit the line, but since most of the cheating is going on in the battleground state dem counties, it will show up there a lot more than anywhere else. This is why I kept the scope this narrow for these graphs (I used federal precinct/ward data within the contested counties).
Yes, that's my point; the rest of the states will serve as a sort of control group.
Yeah, I can probably do it in Clayton, Maricopa, and Vegas, then move onto other large counties that are not vital to winning the election. Thanks for the suggestion!
GO, FAM, GO!
Thank you for your efforts! I am far from a mathy or stats guy, but I would think finding similar sample sizes in non-competitive locations - including those Trump carried at the highest levels - and see if you can find any similar deviations from Benford. If we are looking for Biden, they are looking for the same in Trump to put doubt in the mind of the judges/public.
Good point, I can see how well both candidates fit the data (to get an actual number for how extreme the fraud is) and compare that to other trump-dominated counties.
Thank you again!
For Milwaukee, I used this data: (https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/County-Clerk/Off-Nav/Election-Results/Election-Results-Fall-2020) and had 478 different wards with 3 and 4 digit numbers. For Philadelphia, I used this data: (https://www.philadelphiavotes.com/en/resources-a-data/archived-data-sets) and I only had 66 different precincts with 2, 3, and 4 digit numbers (pretty much all 4 digits for Biden).
Yeah, it could be better but it's hard to get huge numbers unless you measure at a statewide level, which is probably difficult to detect fraud in.