PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania has received more than 2.5 million mail-in and absentee ballots so far, according to new data from election officials here.
That means that 81 percent of state voters who were sent those ballots have returned them. To break it down, more than 1.6 million of those ballots were from registered Democrats, 586,000 were from Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters.
Registered Totals
Democrat - 1600000
Republican - 586000
Independent - 278000 Total est - 2464000
Percentage Won of Mail in vote
Biden 63.7% ( 1913770 / 2510749 )
Trump 22.8% ( 573410 / 2510749 )
Jo 0.1% ( 23569 / 2510749 )
If EVERY registered republican voted for Trump
595047 ( 0.237 * 2510749 )
margin: -21637 of Trumps ( 573410 - 595047 )
If EVERY registered democrat voted for Biden
1631986 ( 0.65 * 2510749 )
margin: +281784 of Bidens Total ( 1913770 - 1631986 )
Est Independent Voter Total
281203 (0.112 * 2510749)
Percentages of votes left
Votes Left = Actual Total Votes - Every Registered Democrat - Every Registered Republican
283716 ( 2510749 - 1631986 - 595047 )
MISSING VOTES FOR BIDEN as % of total left
99.3% ( 281784 / 283716 )
Grant all the missing Votes to Biden leaves us with some unaccounted votes
1932 ( 283716 - 281784 )
If we assume all faithless Republicans voted for Jo and the left over Independents
23569 = 1932 + 21637
Analysis
The data does work out very strange. You would assume some shuffle of registered democrats voting for Trump and registered Republicans voting for Biden.
96.3% of Registered Republicans Voted Trump
3.7% of Registered Republicans Voted Jo
100% Democrats Voted Biden
99.3% Independents Voted Biden
0.7% Independents Voted Jo
Even if the Democrat % of mail in voters is under estimated it does seem Independents voted well over 90% Biden.
Ok I tried to work this out and show my work since there is NO explaination
Data from article - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/democrats-more-mail-in-ballots-pennsylvania-433951
Registered Totals
Democrat - 1600000
Republican - 586000
Independent - 278000
Total est - 2464000
Margin off of actual Total -46749
Percentage of Registered Mail in Voters
Democrat - 65% ( 1600000 / 2464000 )
Republican - 23.7% - ( 586000 / 2464000 )
Independent - 11.2% - ( 278000 / 2464000 )
Total Mail in Votes received - https://electionreturns.pa.gov/
Biden - 1913770
Trump - 573410
Jo - 23569
Total - 2510749
Percentage Won of Mail in vote
Biden 63.7% ( 1913770 / 2510749 )
Trump 22.8% ( 573410 / 2510749 )
Jo 0.1% ( 23569 / 2510749 )
If EVERY registered republican voted for Trump
595047 ( 0.237 * 2510749 )
margin: -21637 of Trumps ( 573410 - 595047 )
If EVERY registered democrat voted for Biden
1631986 ( 0.65 * 2510749 )
margin: +281784 of Bidens Total ( 1913770 - 1631986 )
Est Independent Voter Total 281203 (0.112 * 2510749)
Percentages of votes left
Votes Left = Actual Total Votes - Every Registered Democrat - Every Registered Republican
283716 ( 2510749 - 1631986 - 595047 )
MISSING VOTES FOR BIDEN as % of total left
99.3% ( 281784 / 283716 )
Grant all the missing Votes to Biden leaves us with some unaccounted votes 1932 ( 283716 - 281784 )
If we assume all faithless Republicans voted for Jo and the left over Independents 23569 = 1932 + 21637
Analysis
The data does work out very strange. You would assume some shuffle of registered democrats voting for Trump and registered Republicans voting for Biden.
96.3% of Registered Republicans Voted Trump
3.7% of Registered Republicans Voted Jo
100% Democrats Voted Biden
99.3% Independents Voted Biden
0.7% Independents Voted Jo
Even if the Democrat % of mail in voters is under estimated it does seem Independents voted well over 90% Biden.
Nice breakdown