3026
Comments (108)
sorted by:
You're viewing a single comment thread. View all comments, or full comment thread.
4
TheCrisp11 [S] 4 points ago +4 / -0

Here guys, my wife updated you all with some more context into how she got these numbers:

PENNSYLVANIA

% of Absentee Ballots that were Returned from Registered Democrats and Non-Republicans:

Democrat Absentee: 1,600,00

Independent Absentee: 278,000

Republican Absentee: 586,000

(1,600,000 + 278,000 ) / (1,600,000 + 586,000 + 278,000) = 0.7622 = 76.22%

(https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/democrats-more-mail-in-ballots-pennsylvania-433951)

% of Absentee Ballots that voted for Biden:

Total Biden Mail Votes: 1,921,185

Total Trump Mail Votes: 575,774

Total Jo Mail Votes: 23,707

1,921,185 / (1,921,185 + 575,774 + 23707) = 0.7622 = 76.22%

(https://electionreturns.pa.gov/)

% of Democrat and Non-Republican Absentee Voters who voted for Joe Biden:

76.22% / 76.22% = 100% (or 99.53% if you use the numbers from the picture)

NORTH CAROLINA

% of Absentee Ballots that were Returned from Registered Democrats and Non-Republicans

37.34% Absentee were Democrats

31.68% Absentee were Republican

30.99% Absentee were Other

37.34% + 30.99% = 68.33% (Oops. Good thing you guys asked for this proof!)

(https://dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202020%20General%20Election/Absentee_Stats_2020General_11042020.pdf).

% of Absentee Ballots that voted for Biden

51.7% of North Carolina absentee votes went to Biden.

(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president.html)

ARIZONA

% of Absentee Ballots that were Returned from Registered Democrats and Non-Republicans

36.5% Absentee were Democrats

37.4% Absentee were Republican

26.0% Absentee were Other

(https://www.dataorbital.com/2020-general-election-early-vote-tracker). 36.5% + 26.0% = 62.5%

% of Absentee Ballots that voted for Biden

52.1% of Arizona absentee votes went to Biden.

(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona-president.html)

FLORIDA

% of Absentee Ballots that were Returned from Registered Democrats and Non-Republicans

Democrat Absentee: 2,189,517

Republican Absentee: 1,506,744

Other Absentee: 66,280

No Party: 1,092,941

(2,189,517 + 66,280 + 1,092,941) / (2,189,517 + 66,280 + 1,092,941 + 1,506,744) = 0.6897 = 68.97% (Oops. The difference still stands.)

(https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats)

% of Absentee Ballots that voted for Biden

50.2% of absentee votes went to Biden

(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida-president.html)

CALIFORNIA

% of Absentee Ballots that were Returned from Registered Democrats and Non-Republicans

With this site you can request data from California (https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfipraqZymaSWDDYjVkidhZ0fpvHGpLuALrX9FxSr0JKeIDGw/viewform). I didn’t have all day so I found a guy who did! According to https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/CA.html,

50.9% Absentee were Democrats

24.4% Absentee were Republican

24.6% Absentee were Other

50.9% + 24.6% = 75.5% (Another discrepancy. I was tired when compiling data.)

% of Absentee Ballots that voted for Biden

According to the New York Times,

(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-california-president.html)

68.1% of absentee votes went to Biden.

3
deleted 3 points ago +3 / -0
3
4MY2020-2024 3 points ago +3 / -0

I may be wrong, but isn't this computation implicitly assuming that 0% of all Republicans in PA voted for Biden? Otherwise, you're not really getting any meaningful information by dividing the total number of absentee ballots that voted for Biden (Dem + Ind + Rep) by the total number of absentee ballots submitted by only Dems and Ind.

To get the actual % that you're looking for, you'd have to first subtract the percentage of republicans that voted Biden from your first number (getting the percentage of Dem + Ind Biden voters rather than Dem+Ind+Rep Biden voters), and then divide by 77.2%.